COLORADO POLL: MCCAIN 48 OBAMA 46

[darius15]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

[maseman]

1. One poll

Not too much to worry. Still some post-convention bounce coupled with a low sample size meaning more statistical bounce.

[darius15]

2. Actually Rasmussen polls by party identification

so the bounces they show are way less than other pollsters. However, Scott Rasmussen is a right winger, so I think his polls have a slight Rethug lean.

[maseman]

5. So they quota sample by party identification?

[darius15]

6. Yup, I think their latest target is 38.7 % Dem 33.6% GOP

[maseman]

7. If they use quota sampling then their polling is not random

My company and many other like mine will NEVER use quata sampling because it is wrong. You should use random sampling and then "weight" the data based on under or over delivery.

[tallahasseedem]

3. One thread please!

Ugh!

[dennis4868]

4. Damn...

seems like most of the state polls are going McCLiars way now...fuck!

[carpe diem]

10. and you just love it don't you?

nt

[codjh9]

8. Whichever one Yahoo's poll page refers to has 'bama ahead in CO by a couple of points

[woolldog]

9. Look at their favorability ratings.

The race is still pretty fluid there and they're both well liked. That's a good sign for Obama. CO is very winnable for him.

[mvd]

11. Well, his own polls show volatility lately

Where they end up, nobody knows.

[woolldog]

12. The key is to look at the favorable/somewhat favorable ratings.

Those set a kind of ceiling on support. People who view candidates very or somewhat unfavorably aren't likely to vote for that candidate.

Like I said, both candidates seem to be well like in CO, which means that the polls will likely be more fluid, barring some drastic change in favorability ratings.