So which polls should we be paying serious attention to?

[MoonRiver]

And don't just post about some generic kind of poll, such as battleground state polls. Post links to the actual pollsters. Every presidential election we go through this, so put up or stfu.

[Captain Hilts]

1. None just yet. Chill. nt

[Eric J in MN]

2. I take Rasmussen and SUSA seriously.

I don't believe Zogby Interactive.

[MoonRiver]

4. You seem to be a minority of one.

And yet I was led to Rasmussen by one of the most liberal bloggers I have known. :shrug:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

34. Rasmussen?? Look at report card

[Blarch]

3. here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com

[suston96]

5. These.......

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.pollster.com/polls/

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.270towin.com/

[Kdillard]

6. None at least not until after the debates. Even then take all polls with a grain of salt.

[ncteechur]

7. My poll...

Taken right this moment. 0%margin of error.

100% Obama (my wife and I)

0% McCain (nobody)

my kids cannot vote yet but if they could they would vote Obama!

[RememberWellstone]

8. None

We are on a ballon run, good or bad, this is a balloon riding for or against either party. There needs to be a break-away for either party to make substantial gains. This is just like 2000, 2004 only the characters have changed.

[NFL80]

9. Only the favorable ones, of course.

[MoonRiver]

11. ...

:D

[alcibiades_mystery]

29. Only the unfavorable ones...depending on who you want to win the election

Let's not pretend that there aren't two sides on this board, one acting deliberately against the Democratic nominee and trying desperately to demoralize supporters.

[woolldog]

10. All of them, but I tend to take

Quinniapiac and SurveyUSA the most seriously b/c of their large sample size and SUSA releases cross tabs.

[icanthelpit]

15. Actually, Quinnipiac is no better than the lot of them

I like the guy that runs the QC poll, but they use college kids and only go after "registered voters".

Here's a link that shows you the last poll taken and the actual results for 2006:


http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SUSA2006ElectionReportCard.htm

[woolldog]

28. what's your point?

[PerfectSage]

12. DKOS daily tracking poll. O 48 M 45

http://www.dailykos.com/

Top of the page.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. Almost all of them are worth serious attention.

If your question is which ones are perfectly accurate, none of them. But they are almsot all of interest to serious poll-watchers.

A lot of dumb-asses here love to lecture others on the limitations of polls without realizing that some folks UNDERSTAND all of that shit and ADJUST FOR IT and do not take polls as MAGICAL PREDICTIONS.

The only people dumb enough to think polls are intended to be oracles, or are accepted by anyone as metaphysically accurate, are the people who go nuts very time someone posts a poll.

[MoonRiver]

16. I agree with all you said.

But it seems like there are constant attacks on polls that don't reflect what people want to see. So, I'm trying to get some kind of commitment about what people perceive as pollster integrity. And that is because I actually want to know what's going on, not live in fantasy land. :crazy:

[MoonRiver]

14. Thanks for the great links and info!

:yourock:

[endthewar]

19. pollster.com

Best site to see all of the polls. See my post below for my opinion on the important battleground states.

[endthewar]

17. MI, OH, VA, CO, and NV

In my opinion those are the most important true "toss-ups"

[MoonRiver]

18. What about MO?

[endthewar]

21. Safely in McCain's column

I think most electoral maps have already put MO as a lean McCain state.

[MoonRiver]

25. Really?

I thought McCaskill was sure to deliver MO to Barack. :(

[endthewar]

40. Last 10 MO polls

From pollster.com: in order with the most recent at the top
McCain +7
McCain +5
McCain +5
McCain +10
McCain +6
McCain +5
Obama +5
McCain +5
McCain +3
Obama +2

[FrenchieCat]

20. ...

:eyes:

So transparent to the knowing eye.

[sniffa]

38. Frenchiemussen is the poll to follow

[myrna minx]

22. Phrigndumass' daily widgets are a fantastic tracking tool. I would follow his information.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/169
We are so fortunate to have him here. :hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

23. The averaging of national polls is the most accurate representation

You can find that on Pollster.com.

State polls generally suck until late in the general election cycle, but SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon are two of the better ones. Again, the averaging is where you want to look, particularly at the end of the campaign.

Dismiss any theory that pollsters are ignoring cell phone users or failing to identify hidden voting blocks worth hundreds of thousands in specific states. That type of stuff is desperate ignorant crap from the same type of mindset that wanted to pretend Obama had a chance in North Carolina or Indiana or Montana or the Dakotas. I used to debate that nonsense in the specific threads in 2004 but now it's best to let it go. The posters are heralded here but they are disgraceful, IMO, pushing phony hope of a rout. This race is extremely tight, which is almost always the case in an open race after one party has held the White House exactly two terms. See 1960, 1968, and 2000. We had a generic edge that should have widened that margin, but we rolled the dice with an inexperienced candidate.

If you want a good idea of the voting tendencies of each state, check Dave Leip's site, and Google exit polls from 2000 to 2006 in individual states. It can give a good hint at the breakdown of each state in terms of the percentage of each demographic, and things like the percentage of self-identified liberals, moderates and conservatives. Once you get a feel for those basics, it's easy to spot ludicrous state poll numbers that don't threaten reality, particularly in relation to each other.

[blueclown]

24. pay attention to the RCP poll average of each poll.

that is a better idea, instead of overreacting over one poll from a right wing hack.

[nickgutierrez]

26. All of them, with enough grains of salt to fill the Grand Canyon.

They're all snapshots of the political horse race, at that moment in time. It's still September, there's a lot of work to be done still between now and election day, and plenty of undecided voters to bring over to our side. What polls allow us to do it catch trends, as they happen, and put us in a position to take advantage of those trends.

Oh, and I second the fivethirtyeight.com recommendation, earlier - their analysis tends to be on the safe side, but I trust them more than most.

[MoonRiver]

27. All the hyperventilation needs to stop, asap!

We really don't know wtf is going on.

[alcibiades_mystery]

30. The hyperventilation on both sides, you ask me

The hyperventilation of the Obama supporters, and the hyperventilation of the posters here who strongly desire to see an Obama loss in November. There are two sides at play in these forums.

[curious one]

31. None

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. Here's the report card on their success rates

[goodgd_yall]

36. Unfortunately, it looks like Survey USA hasn't been doing a lot

of state polling. I only found a few recent ones. They do show Virginia going to Obama as of this past weekend.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. they used to have all the states then stopped.

[goodgd_yall]

33. Survey USA was pretty reliable during the primaries

I'd look at state polls since it's the state polls indicate how the electoral vote will go.

Survey USA shows Obama over McCain in Virginia by 4 points---as of 9/12-9/14, FYI.

[mvd]

35. Take the trend of..

PPP, Quinnipiac, Survey USA (depending on who the poll is done for,) ARG, Research 2000, and some others. Count Rasmussen, Zogby interactive, and Mason-Dixon much less.

[goodgd_yall]

37. Good advice n/t