NY Times: Married women as swing voters--How do Obama/Biden reach them?

[ProgressiveEconomist]

There seems to be much heat on this board today about women's votes for President. This post is my attempt to add a little light. It's surprising how few public poll results are available to gauge trends by gender in support for Obama/Biden and for McCain/Palin.

A thought-provoking article in the Times today points out several important issues for Obama/Biden to focus upon to win what McCain and company call "Walmart women" and suburban women in battleground states.

(1) The first point is ... DUH ... Democrats who focus on comparisions between Obama and Palin rather than comparisions between Obama and McCain are helping Republicans win women voters

(2) The most surprising point point is that, based on recent poll results, among those women who will decide the outcome in November, abortion rights may not be a very potent issue, compared to economic issues such as pay equity and intended Republican privatization of Social Security.

.What do you think?

From http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/us/politics/15women.html?_r=1&ref=us&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

"Both Sides Seeking to Be What Women Want

By KATE ZERNIKE September 15, 2008

"...For Mr. Obama, the push for women means emphasizing that he is running against Mr. McCain, not Ms. Palin, and drawing attention to Mr. McCain's record on issues that particularly resonate with women: his opposition to abortion rights, his votes against expanded health insurance for children and pay equity legislation, and his support for private investment accounts for Social Security, of concern among white women over 50, a group Mr. Obama has had trouble winning over. This week, Obama events have a theme, 'Women for the Change We Need', as the campaign tries to connect with women in conference calls, rallies and registration drives. The campaign will also begin increasing advertising on television programs watched by women...

Mr. McCain will continue to campaign this week with Ms. Palin, with a rally on Tuesday in Ohio, an important state for working-class women. The two are expected to be together frequently in the seven remaining weeks of the campaign. Beyond that, the McCain campaign's strategy is to emphasize personality, capitalizing on the booming celebrity of Ms. Palin, highlighting Mr. McCain¡s story as a war hero, showcasing their families, and trying to keep alive the anger about sexism that many women felt during Mr. Obama¡s primary campaign against Mrs. Clinton....

Women have voted in greater proportions than men for almost three decades--in 2004, nearly nine million more women voted than men, 67.3 million to 58.5 million.... Mr. McCain¡s strategists do not expect to win more than a small fraction of Mrs. Clinton¡s supporters. But they do see blocs of women they think they can win. ...white women have voted Republican in all but two of the last nine presidential elections. In 1992, they were evenly divided between the first President Bush and Mr. Clinton; in 1996, they voted for Mr. Clinton, 48 percent to 43 percent. And while unmarried women have consistently given their majority to Democrats, married women gave President Bush the majority in 2004. ... The McCain campaign¡s polling identifies two ripe demographics: So-called Wal-Mart women, who shop at the store at least once a week, earn less than $60,000 a year, have less than a college education, and hold a poor impression of Mr. Bush; they tend to call themselves independents and say their economic situation is fair or poor, listing the economy as their prime election issue. McCain strategists believe this group will be attracted by the ticket¡s 'maverick' image. The second group is women in important suburbs in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The McCain campaign is also on the offensive in trying to stoke anger about perceived sexism. The campaign has designated a squad of prominent Republican women to call out what they see as gender-based smears against Ms. Palin. Last week, it released two spots accusing Mr. Obama of being 'disrespectful' toward her. ...

In part, the Obama campaign is emphasizing the Republican ticket¡s opposition to abortion rights. The campaign ran a radio advertisement during the Republican convention calling the party¡s platform on abortion 'extreme' because it did not include an exception for rape or incest. But that issue alone may not swing many women. In a Gallup poll in May, 14 percent of women said that a candidate for major office must share their view on abortion (about the same percentage as among men). For half the women in the poll, abortion was one issue among many affecting their decision. The Obama campaign is also emphasizing Mr. McCain's opposition to pay equity legislation, with a television spot that began running on Sunday saying that he 'just doesn't get it.' The Obama campaign¡s focus on women this week will start with a conference call Wednesday between 20,000 women in leadership positions nationwide and Mr. Obama's running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, who the campaign believes commands respect among women, particularly because of his advocacy for laws against domestic violence. Mr. Biden and Mr. Obama will then hold rallies with women Thursday and Friday, setting up a weekend of voter registration, beauty shop canvassing and mobilizing events. ..."

[Captain Hilts]

1. We've got some female trouble. It always surprises me how greatly marital status affects votes...

of both sexes, but women much more strongly.

[tblue]

2. I think the campaign should speak to, not only women in "leadership positions," but other women as

well. Moms, for instance. Find out what's in their heads.

I am a suburban mom, but I am way too far left of many of my midwestern & small town sisters to speak for them. I don't know how/what they think, but I believe they are who the camp should be talking to, not just female CEOs and executive directors.


edit/typo

[ProgressiveEconomist]

4. Good point. Judging from the frequency of Frank Luntz's TV appearances, Republicans

must run plenty of focus groups to find "fluff" and wedge issues that work with different groups of voters.

I wonder at what level of effort Democrats are LISTENING to women and other groups of voters.

[blondeatlast]

6. What do you think of the issues I raise in post 5? As another suburban mom,

I'd really like to hear what you think.

[Blasphemer]

23. Moderate/Indie women

I've spoken to some women who identify themselves as Independents. They like McCain and Palin just fine (even if they haven't made up their minds who to vote for). They are pro-choice but it's not important enough an issue to affect their voting patterns - they feel pro-lifers are free to their opinions. I suppose for these women abortion has never been a real issue in their own lives. Sex Ed? They don't have a problem with it being taught in schools but at the same time they are not totally comfortable with the idea that their children might be exposed to information they don't approve of or that they feel may encourage sexual activity. I think there is a segment of women who vote based on who they feel will take care of them and their families the best. I suppose Palin's hockey mom schtick might work because of a feeling that she would understand what they need to raise their families properly. On the flip side, her lack of qualifications would turn them off as she would not be adequately able to take care of their security (I figure this is why her support is eroding). I think it's difficult to appeal to people who are basically comfortable with where there lives are.

[Captain Hilts]

26. I really appreciate your self-awareness and your not projecting your views onto your community.

It sounds like you should be in polling!

Often on this board I play Devil's Advocate to try and get folks to see that their comments "I don't know anyone who...." have limited utility in circumstances like this. Our associations are very "self-selecting."

THANKS!

[ericgtr]

3. One way is to let them know that if they are raped they won't be forced to keep their baby

Yes, it is horrific but must be said and hammered home. And that she will also bill them for their rape kits. The fact that this woman is so cold is really hard to believe but it is the truth.

[renie408]

20. More to the point...if their DAUGHTERS are raped, they won't be forced to carry the child to term.

[blondeatlast]

5. Two issues (well, amybe three) will connect with married, middle class white women

(of which I am one).

1, The republican proposal, supporteed by McCain, to tax health care benefits from employers. It's simply a sneaky way to raise income tax on middle class families and it needs to be made an issue.

2. Social Security privatization. As DUer kurt_and_humter pointed out yesterday, aren't we all glad our Social Security funds weren't in the stock market yesterday? The fact that most women outlive their husbands can make this a HUGE issue with middle-class, married women.

The third: More focus on education. Lots of women like me volunteer for our kid's schools and see firsthand the devastating effects of NCLB. Even a generic pledge to increase funding of public education will hit home with many suburban moms who may be independent, but are firecely supportive of public schools with their boots on the ground to prove it.

[Captain Hilts]

8. I want to underline your reference to privatization of SS. nt

[Captain Hilts]

9. I want to underline your reference to privatization of SS. nt

[tblue]

16. delete dupe

[tblue]

17. Well, I'm not white, but I do live in a very affluent 'white' suburb so

I don't think I'm the target here. What speaks to me may not have a lot of sway with, say, some of my neighbors. However, the points you raise are extremely compelling, pocket-book issues that should concern every working class/middle class mom. I think keeping it down to just three (3) issues would give the overall message clarity and punch.

In terms of these specific issues, taxing health care benefits is raising taxes, period end of story. " John McC will raise your taxes by taxing your health care benefits."

"Social Security privatization" I think sounds complicated. I'm not sure how many people get it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think things have to be spelled out in explicit and even visceral terms. "John McC wants you to bet your social security on the stock market." Boom! It's over!

On education, again, the message needs to be streamlined and driven home. "Teachers are buying books and pencils in our children's classrooms with their own money. Moms are holding bake sales to keep our schools afloat. Japan (India?) have the best public schools in the world. Don't American children deserve better?"


Another point about Social Security. All women aren't mothers, but all of us are daughters. And a lot of us are awfully glad there is such a thing as Social Security to sustain the lives and independence of our elderly parents. This is a huge issue that's almost never talked about. I don't know enough about privatization to understand how it affects current recipients, but I doubt the Repub plan has their best interests at heart. So maybe the O camp can use this, too.

Do you know how to get ideas to the campaign? I don't.

[blondeatlast]

36. Edit: dupe.

[blondeatlast]

37. They read these boards, that much I know. They'd be fools not to.

Thanks for the reply!

[CharmCity]

41. I don't think it's the "married" part that drives them... it's the "mother" part

I think women start to think differently once they have children -- and most white married women in the burbs do have children.

I speak as someone who lives in the burbs, have a child in a public school, and see many SUVs with McCain stickers. I have conversations with white, suburban married mothers all the time.

Education is a big deal, absolutely. As long as the children aren't taught anything that allows them to question authority.

What also strikes me is the abject anxiety that goes with parenthood today. Nearly every married woman with children I've spoken with are obsessed with the "safety" of their children. They don't seem to mind that there are no seat belts in the school buses, but they lose sleep over terrorists, pedophiles, kidnappers, and so on. Even walking to school in the burbs is too dangerous as far as they're concerned. None of this is based on reality; the fact that their teenagers could end up drafted in a ridiculous war isn't as scary and upsetting as the possiblity that a neighbor might walk naked in their own living room without shutting the blinds.

Republicans have done a great job making many mothers believe they and their children are "safer" under their watch. I believe the GOP emphasis on law enforcement to solve problems makes many married women feel secure.

And they identify with Sarah Palin much more than with Hillary, who they find intimidating, and "not like us."

[Doremus]

7. I'm a married white woman and they've reached me! n/t

[Captain Hilts]

10. One thing 8 years in polling demonstrated to me is that abortion ...

isn't as high a priority with female voters as a lot of people think. Married women, in particular, can be pro-Choice, but it's not that high a priority with them. Democrats consistently exaggerate the importance of this issue to this demographic.

That said, Palin's lack of exemption for rape and incest should have real traction even with married women.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

21. Do you know whether Democrats supplement Presidential election polling with focus

groups to any significant extent? See posts #s 2 and 4 above

[Captain Hilts]

24. Yes, they do. Celinda Lake is an ace. nt

[ProgressiveEconomist]

27. It could be that some voters have noticed that Republicans rarely have DONE anything

legislatively on "social issues" when they've had the chance. They always deliver what they've promised to Wall Street, though.

But gradually cumulative Republican Supreme Court appointments have moved the USSC to a tipping point where unthinkably reactionary decisions on choice and other social issues may be imminent. Maybe 527s would be more effective than Obama in reminding wavering voters how crucial the next couple of Supreme Court appointments will be.

[melody]

11. My mother used to tell my father she was voting she was voting one way and then vote her way n/t

[Captain Hilts]

25. THIS is why Hillary Clinton has always gotten more votes than polling points.

And it's another reason she was at a disadvantage in caucuses. Men pressure women's votes more than women pressure men's. And women generally avoid political debates, particularly in public, as many caucuses require.

[Kind of Blue]

30. Bang on, MookieWilson!

My dad, a die hard Democrat with 4 daughters, would not let me escape voting or shamed me into voting after I became of age to vote. One year, he called an emergency meeting of us girls and marched us into a polling place and entered the booths with us, jumping from booth to booth. The poor poll workers were besides themselves, as he tried to explain how important it was for us to get it right. Everyone, besides the workers were cracking up. We just thought, well, that's just our male domineering African dad. Anyway, years later, when my step-kids would visit on weekends, they'd start espousing right-wing bullshit that mom said, and we'd set them straight. Funny thing is, their step-dad is a republican but my husband said his ex-wife always voted Democratic when they were married. Besides the kids, politics was one of the few things they had in common. It's good to put women as a voting block in context, because this switcheroo always amazed me.

[Captain Hilts]

31. There you go!

And there are women, like my aunt, who have completely absorbed their husband's political views. It rarely happens the other way around. Kinda like, how many men convert to their wive's religion?

Polling data shows younger women, in particular, less engaged in politics than women over 30. The same things that engage women in politics also make them conservative: marriage, mortgage, etc.

More importantly ALL demographics of women are far, FAR less likely than men to engage in the activities that enhance or reinforce political beliefs - discussing politics with others. So, much of women's political engagement is not overt. THIS is why I've been complaining for years, and in this cycle for well over a year, that caucuses discourage women's participation and voting encourages it.

[PassingFair]

34. Any time I have ever volunteered at, or attended, marches, meetings, protests, call-outs,

and even conventions, the majority of the attendees have been WOMEN.


If you're looking for the place where Democrats are gathering,
follow the middle-aged and white haired WOMEN, they are the
bulk of participants.

(At least here in suburban Detroit...)

Your results may vary.

[Captain Hilts]

35. Yes, I can believe that. They show up to do the grunt work in every campaign...

but when it comes to debating and arguing with others over candidates and policy, men are more prevalent. Men also do it in non-political settings - diners, etc. I go to a diner in Va. Beach and the men at the counter just trash Dems like you wouldn't believe. Women don't bring political discussion to non-political settings.

Women do make up the bulk of political workers though, that is a fact.

I'm glad you're active! I'll be at the Obama office here soon.

[seabeyond]

12. three issues turned me off to palin as a woman

1. she is a feminist who husband shadows her and sits in meeting to make decisions for her cause she is a woman

2. voting for her cause she is a mom. i see a zillion ways to parent on any given issue, but when a parent does NOT parent, i get pissed. in many example palin has shown that she puts her interest before the childrens. ALWAYS children come first. the one that disgusted me as a mom was her waiting over 18 hours for medical care, going AWAY from medical care when she was 44 high risk, down syndrome high risk, premature labor high risk. then.... outing her daughter. using her front stage. baby on stage. using sons deployment. and many other examples.

3. rape. rapist rights, victim pay for investigation per kits.

[seabeyond]

13. but what really bothers me about this issue is repug and msm manipulating and conditioning

and i do not know if i believe them.

when kerry ran, we had msm and repugs continually telling us over and over that only reason dems voting for kerry was abb (anyone but bush). and that wasn't true. but i started seeing dems being conditioned, believing and falling for it and making a creation a truth

generally as people, we allow ourselves to be conditioned though if asked we would deny vehemently. yet still, so many allow. i am thinking this is one of those moments.

anytime a repug is telling me who i am, or msm, my radar goes up

[Captain Hilts]

38. I think making crime victims pay for their investigation kits - a victims' rights issue - can have..

great traction.

It's anti-woman and anti-crime victim. What does the victims' rights crowd think of this?

[GreenPartyVoter]

14. Married and swing used in the same headline.. I couldn't focus on what they really meant at first. :

[seabeyond]

15. bah hahhaha, lol had the same issue twice reading it. lol. got past it though. lol. n/t

[ProgressiveEconomist]

18. I've been waiting for someone to 'get' my double entendre

[renie408]

19. I know what gets to me...my children. I would vote Obama because he most

closely matches my values, but I am DESPERATE for him to win because of my children. I want them to have a world worth living in.

[blondeatlast]

40. I think this is an appeal that needs used way more. It has to be a positive one,

but fear plays a large role in it. The draft, economic opportunity, education, etc.

My son was born during the early years of the second Clinton term. Everything looked pretty rosy then, even if I wasn't a Clinton fan.

Now the future looks pretty bleak.

[anonymous171]

22. By scaring the shit out of them.

"If you vote McCain, you are going to be living in a box in 4 years" and "McCain is a untrustworthy liar who would sell you a bridge to nowhere if it would get your vote. Don't trust him with your family."

[TexasObserver]

28. Media now consistently conflate "women" and "white women"

"White married women" includes all those women married to all those Republican men in places like the South and the Midwest. Of course those women will be a problem for Democrats. They are likely to be anti abortion, pro death penalty, pro war. They are voters who embrace ideals that are Republican. They will be supportive and excited by a Sarah Palin.

Beyond that, married women generally vote more conservative than unmarried women.

The question is not how each sub segment of the "married women" demo will vote, but in what percentages they will show up to vote. We know how each group will vote. We don't know how many will vote in each group. Palin has energized the rightwing base, but she has excited men more than women.

We are in a battle for turn out, and unfortunately, the primary problems linger as some women continue to appear hell bent to vote against everything they stand for because they're mad about the outcome of the nominating process. It's not rational, but it is a fact.

[KakistocracyHater]

29. Hillary Clinton for DHHS

it's been her passion, why not float around the idea of her as head of the Dept. of HHS-is it Human & Health Services now because dhs is now the Dept of H0m3lan6 secr1tii

[Captain Hilts]

39. It's a "traditional" posting for a woman starting with its first head, Oveta Culp Hobby...

Here's OCH with ER during the war. She was in charge of...women!

[KakistocracyHater]

44. Tommy Thomson was a woman?

It's a post where you can redirect American Health Industries, how much it costs, how it's organized, what is legal:like stem cell research, cancer treatments outside of the locked in Komen Foundation, stuff like that.

[faithfulcitizen]

32. Well, they could start by showing a little skin!

:9

No seriously, I think they talk about making us safer and how McBush has made us more vulnerable to terrorists attacks, making college more affordable, health care, and maybe addressing childcare. I don't know what they should propose, but affordable, quality childcare is the biggest issue my working mom friends face in their daily lives. Maybe they don't propose anything, but just really talk about that when discussing the economy. Just my 2cents.

[faithfulcitizen]

33. ooh, I just thought of another... how about stipends for adults to go to college too

if they commit to a number years of service as well. Very appealing for women who think about going back or going to school for the 1st time, but don't know how to pay for it with the family obligations they have already.

[Hutzpa]

42. So now its not women but MARRIED WOMEN

ha!!! you people will never grow a pair, the sad thing is to see so many
so called journalist hands are in the GOP pockets, which begs me to ask,

ARE THESE JOURNALIST REALLY AMERICANS??????

with everything else thats going on, here we have a journalist who is
still stuck on stupid, stuck on DIVISIONS.

Can someone tell me the difference between married women and women???



On Edit: Shame on all of you that sides with this hit piece, what happens to
common sense. This is what the Republicans are banking on, that
they believe in their hearts that MAJORITY OF AMERICANS ARE STUPID,
and from what I've read here so far, they might just be right.


:wtf:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

43. Latest Newsweek Poll: McCain lead among white women 53-37; was 44-39 in July; no shift among

no shift among white men.

The September 22 issue of Newsweek has this amazing paragraph:

From http://www.newsweek.com/id/158893 :

"...women are flocking to her, cheering her can-do attitude and her unabashed embrace of the hockey-mom label. After her nomination as the Republicans' vice presidential candidate, the Washington Post/ABC poll reported a remarkable 20-point shift toward McCain. The new NEWSWEEK Poll also finds that some movement occurred: in July, John McCain led Barack Obama among white women by 44 to 39 percent; now his lead is 53 to 37 percent. There was no shift among white men, although other polls vary. One in three white women says she is more likely to vote for McCain because he chose Palin as a running mate."