Ed Rollins: McCain peaked too early-Bradley effect is real-BUT-in the end new voters will Vote Obama

[kpete]

A Republican Strategist's Take on the Presidential Race

Republican public relations strategist Marty Youssefiani has worked on numerous House and national races, and when I saw a CNN analysis by his old mentor Ed Rollins the other day on how Palin changed the game, I asked Youssefiani for his take. By way of background, when I spoke with Youssefiani in the late spring, he was fairly convinced that Obama would win the election, on the strength of inspiring the registration of so many new, first time voters.

Ed is right in that (Palin) changed the short term dynamics of the game. But I'm increasingly skeptical about McCain's ability to sustain the energy -- through three debates and this volcanic economy! (I have a hunch McCain may have peaked too early.)

On the other side, Obama can ill-afford to (personally) engage in the nasty game; instead he needs to figure out -- very quickly -- how to close the sale and convince the margins that he is not surface thin. On that note, Biden's (unfathomable pick over Hillary) problem is: unlike Palin, his personal likability factor ranks with that of Ashcroft! He has always come across as mean, bitter and personally angry. He is probably the truly smartest one of the bunch, but time is running out on him and he's got to be careful with Palin.

On the "Bradley Factor": I do think it is very, very real vis-a-vis the polls; however, in my opinion, come Nov 5, the biggest story will be how the genius pollsters missed/under factored the massive new registered voters, which will counter balance the Bradley factor -- in favor of Obama, and, at the end, make the difference. There you have it.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/09/9746_a_republican_st.html
via:
http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/008055.html

update

Obama Regaining Momentum
by: Chris Bowers
Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 14:13


The four tracking polls for today have all been released, and collectively they show Obama ahead 46.75%--45.25% (links can be found in quick hits). Even in the two tracking polls where McCain leads by a single point, Gallup and Rasmussen, Haggai's numbers indicate a strong possibility that Obama led in polling conducted last night. So, it now seems possible--or, actually, it now seems likely--that Obama has regained the national lead.

This is very good news. There are probably several factors behind Obama's newfound momentum, four of which I discuss in the extended entry.

more at:
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=6C05A6BCE26791A0AF59198B6AEDAAFD?diaryId=8269

[Alter Ego]

1. He's wrong about Biden.

Republicans hate Biden--we love him. Biden's been what Obama cannot be--the firecracker.

[gateley]

10. I think a lot of Republicans like Biden --

as a matter of fact (video is here) Joe Scarborough (of all people) on Morning Joe said to Biden, "We love you, Senator!"

[tblue]

2. Great, except Biden's 'unfavorable' rating is the lowest of the four. People love the Joe!

[DJ13]

5. Great, except Biden's 'unfavorable' rating is the lowest of the four.

The MSM, knowing he was selected to serve as the attack dog against McCain, made a deliberate decision to ignore him in order to minimize his benefit to Obama.

The MSM needs to cover Joe if they really want to be unbiased.

[Jennicut]

9. Is it really? So much for that analysis then

[liberalmuse]

3. This is the scenario I'm hoping for.

The new registered voters, and cross-over voters (which will be on both sides). I'm hoping they will help overcome the Republican plan of stealing votes across the country, especially in swing states. I'm going to go pick up a bunch of voter registrations at the library today, and start passing them out.

[Cosmocat]

6. I will feel about this ONLY if the polling ...

shows nothing worse than a tie for BO ... I think if BO is polling ahead, then the new registered voters should ENSURE the win, and if it is a pretty solid tie, then I think they can be the tie breaker.

I do NOT want to see BO behind in polling and needing to have new voters pull him ahead.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

4. Your title should read: Marty Youssefiani peaked too early-Bradley effect is real-BUT-in the end new

voters will Vote Obama

[DangerDave921]

7. new voters

But where will they make the difference? It can't just be in Kerry '04 states because they're blue anyway. In what states will new voters (especially new AA voters) make the critical difference in flipping a red state blue?

[Hamlette]

11. I'm not sure its new voters but Iowa seems pretty blue this year

and voted Bush last time.

I also think we get one or two or three (all?) of these red states:

VA
NM
CO
OH

I've been watching the polls, not so great this week or last, but I expect them to go back to our side. (I personally think its NM, CO and IA that put us over, three states that went for Bush but we can own this year. OH and VA would be icing.)

[DangerDave921]

12. so many permutations!

I like doing the math. I think OH and VA will stay red this time around. Maybe in 2112 it will switch. But the others you mention are great news and very realistic. PA concerns me. If we lose that one, then it means more red states we have to flip.

I think we all have to realize this is not going to be a romp as some suspected a while back.

[stopbush]

8. Never trust an R who says "Dems need to be careful."

Ds have been too careful to a fault for decades.

[Major Hogwash]

13. So, what he's really saying is, McCain suffers from premature election dysfunction?

Can't keep his numbers up?

LoL

[nichomachus]

14. Rollins is a paid propagandist -- everything he says is shit

[tblue37]

15. Biden's smile is as captivating as Obama's. That smile alone would

ensure a high likability factor, and his personal story would pump it up even more. Hillary is smart and talented, but I don't see how she has a stronger likability factor than Biden. The polls showed that voters compalined she wasn't likable--leading to a debate question and an Obama remark about her being likable enough.

[elkston]

16. ...and its not just "new" voters.

Its also registered voters like me who haven't been the polls in previous elections, but are excited about Obama this time.

In general, its about enthusiasitc TURNOUT for the Dems, be it old or new. That's what's going to make the difference.