I'm not sure why, but I'm still confident Obama will win. Didn't feel that about Kerry

[cali]

or Gore. I can't quite put my finger on it. Partly, I suppose, it's that the political environment is different. Partly it's because Obama is a better politician and has the Kerry and Gore campaigns to draw from as far as what to do and not do. (Yes, of course I know that Gore won and that Ohio was a clusterfuck of cheating in 2004).

Gut feelings aren't terribly defensible, and mine aren't invariably right, but I still think Obama will win this.

[Left Is Write]

1. We must always have hope and optimism.

I'd much rather read posts like yours than those of the gloom-and-doomer defeatists.

[trynotto_giveuphope]

38. Check Out The Polls For the 2000 Election

Here:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

The final poll results, taken right before Election Day, were:

ABC: 45 Gore, 48 Bush
Gallup/CNN: 46 Gore, 48 Bush
NBC: 44 Gore, 47 Bush
Newsweek: 43 Gore, 45 Bush
Pew: 47 Gore, 49 Bush

And the actual results:
48.38 Gore, 47.87 Bush

And where are we today? Pretty much the same place. Perhaps we'll take the lead back in the next few days, once the bounce has subsided for good.

The point is: Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I feel REALLY GOOD about our chances. It's gonna be close, but Obama's gonna pull out that extra 1 or 2 percent he needs that seem to go un-polled, just like Al Gore did. Possibly more. Possibly much more.

Plus, now that we know what kind of tricks the bad guys will play, we will be prepared.

Yes, we're gonna win this thing. Let's not get distracted, and be prepared to work our asses off up to, including, and potentially AFTER Election Day! Let's make this happen!

[H2O Man]

2. Yes.

Obama will be elected President of the United States in November.

[busymom]

3. I believe this too.

[Fresh_Start]

4. I agree with you

I never felt that Kerry had the election won.
There have been many times including right now where I've felt that Obama would be inaugurated.

[SuperTrouper]

5. It is the young people that give me hope. They are solidly pro-Obama and

we are now seeing a new coaliton of Democratic party where three groups that were apathetic before will propel Obama to victory: the young people, the African Americans and the Hispanic Americans. If you add these three groups it consists roughly about 50% of the American population which is a big building block to victory. Gore and Kerry did not inspire the same amount of fervor in their Presidential campaigns in these groups

[JuniperLea]

6. People are fed up

I think Obama will win, too.

The USA simply cannot survive four more years of Bush's failed policies, and there is no question that the McCain/Palin ticket is Bush/Cheney all over again.

[cali]

10. yep. I tthink that's part of it too.

When people walk into the voting booth, I think they'll go for the different "brand"- even though they may not have much faith in either.

[JuniperLea]

15. I know it won't mean anything at the polls...

But the few staunch Republicans I know, who have contributed the max to the McCain campaign btw, hate Palin with a fiery passion. They think she is vacuous and naive. They will vote McCain anyway, but I'm hoping this is a good sign!

[GreenEyedLefty]

7. The economic chickens have come home to roost.

The worm is turning, folks.

I'm starting to feel better about the election but we should pray, meditate and/or send good vibes to the Obama administration. They will have their work cut out for them.

[msallied]

8. I'm with you on that.

I haven't doubted for a second that Obama would be our next President and I still don't. It's strange because I'm often the cynical doubting type. But not this time.

I think it's just because an Obama win sides so much with my unyielding belief in justice and that good eventually prevails, even if it has to take an 8 year vacation. lol

[cynatnite]

9. I had no doubt Kerry would win...

got kicked in the gut when he didn't. I'm not even sure he lost considering the major voting problems they had in Ohio.

I refuse to get my hopes up this time around. 2004 hurt too much.

[cali]

12. I can understand that. I thought Kerry would lose

from the minute he stepped out onto the stage with his "reporting for duty" line. and of course, he was running against a sitting president during wartime.

[politicasista]

14. I feel the same way though I am hopeful Obama will win

We need him and Biden in the WH. We really do.

[Arkansas Granny]

19. I was sure Kerry would win also and went around in a blue funk for weeks when he didn't.

I don't have the same optimism this time. I am really worried about our chances.

[sandnsea]

11. My gut feels good about it too

Nothing to put my finger on either, but I do feel better about this election.

[dchill]

13. Me, too.

That's it - me, too.

[Obamarulz11]

16. I predicted an Obama win....

When I saw him on Oprah in 2006. I told my family "He's going to be the next president of the United States." They were like "Bullshit." I was reminded of that today.

Im going to raise the stakes on this election. Im calling for everyone to place their bets on the pass line. Obama in a landslide victory. Sit back and watch!

[Larry in KC]

17. I feel exactly the same way, and it puzzles me a bit, too, but...

...I think that in both 2000 and 2004 there were some tangible reasons that we had an enthusiasm gap (even though WE knew how bad * was in 2000, and the entire world SHOULD have known how bad it was in 2004).

This year, we have passion and enthusiasm that was lacking then. Obama is a unique candidate, inspirational both symbolically and in his message. He's also comfortable in his own skin in a way that both Gore and Kerry sadly lacked, and it matters. Again, although I liked Kerry and loved Gore, and they're both very smart men, Obama is clearly a more adept politician than either, and able to fire us up.

I think we sense that added passion, and know it adds up to a big positive that's not very well reflected in polling, but will be well reflected in the actual vote.

[nxylas]

18. I think he would win a free and fair elections in a cakewalk

My only worry is the bastards stealing it again. That's why it's essential to keep plugging those "can I still vote?" sites, particularly among the voting blocs mentioned upthread. Make sure everybody knows about them and uses them.

[Forkboy]

20. That's pretty much where I am, too.

[denem]

21. JOE BIDEN!!

Gore would have won with a good VP, arguably Kerry would have too. Biden is a fantastic communicator, with the media AND on the stump. Obama/Biden IS two for the price of one.

[Thrill]

22. This is all I can tell you

[cali]

24. All I can tell you is this isn't 2004

[kimmerspixelated]

23. Obama should win by a landslide.

That there is any other way, is first, unthinkable, but mostly, it is unreasonable. People have opened their eyes, perhaps once and for all. Although numbers of stupid people do persist, I believe
that there will be such record turnout it will be overwhelming. Vote purging, and electronic theft will be attempted, but in the end we'll know, and wake up to PRESIDENT OBAMA!!!!

[iiibbb]

25. I can tell you why...

I will admit I voted Bush in 2000 because I had Clinton fatigue... Gore had just come out saying he was in favor of banning handguns... and I had read his first book, which as an environmental researcher I found lacking.

I voted for Kerry because Bush proved to be such a horrible mistake. I was duped... what can I say? I told my wife back then I didn't think Kerry would win. I thought he ran a horrible campaign. Go back and listen to any of his speeches from 2004. He always uses 30 words where 10 would do. My wife watches these clips now and knows.


Obama... I am impressed with Obama. You can tell that he is thoughtful. You can tell he thinks beyond the next step. However, when he has to, he thinks fast on his feet. His campaign is well-managed and disciplined (not many leaks about his VP pick for instance until maybe the day before). Perhaps most importantly, he doesn't strike me as a know-it-all. I have a lot of confidence in his ability. I tend to think he's going to win.

[cali]

26. sure, it's partly that, but it's about the larger environment and, well,

just that gut feeling.

[politicasista]

27. I agree with your thoughts, although..

I would have left Kerry and/or Gore's name out of the title. It makes posters put them down just to praise Obama, which does not help Obama's cause. And bringing out the same revisionist history over and over again already in this thread. (JAHO)

One of the reasons why I feel hopeful about Obama winning is that he has surrogates. And Kerry is one of them, if not one of the best out there for Obama. Surrogates and a VP candidate attack dog are something that Kerry and Gore lacked.

There was no one to play this role for Kerry in 04 (minus Dean, Clark, Cleland, etc.). And the media is giving more air time to Obama along with You Tube and other factors. People are sick and tired of being sick and tired (a la Fannie Lou Hamer).

I am cautiously optimistic Obama will win, but it's we the people that will put him in the WH. We have to have his back and get his message out. We have to be the media. We can't let them steal another one.

[BeyondGeography]

28. Bad as things are, if the country sticks with the Republicans again

we have truly left the rails. I too think we will win, but only by the slightest of margins because I believe that just enough Americans haven't completely lost their ability to equate McPalin with their own failed party.

That said, if Barack Obama had John Kerry's debating skills, I'd feel much better. Obama runs a better campaign and is more appealing than Kerry in a number of ways, but JK is a first-rate debater.

[amborin]

44. but

general consensus holds that, even though jk clearly 'won' the debates in the strict sense, he didn't win them in the larger sense of rallying viewing voters to his side

he came off as too detached and professorial and his answers were too nuanced

bush came across as more of a 'regular guy', 'just like us', and this resonated with lots of voters who aren't that analytically inclined

i think O not only needs to do well in the classic sense, but he's got to show emotion and connect with the viewing voters, show them he's one of them, just another 'plain folks' regular guy

O must have shorter, more pointed answers, no more of those long, nuanced speeches punctuated with lots of 'uh, um' etc.

[wildeyed]

29. Yeah, me too.

I am not overconfident, just pretty sure that it's going to be ok this time.

[rolleitreks]

30. It's because Obama is cool and Gore and Kerry, though good men, are kind of dorky. n/t

[RoadRage]

31. It's the damn kids...

People like me (although i'm 30 now). I don't even remember if I voted in 2004. 4 years later, i'm blogging my ass off on a political website.

I think that can be said about millions of "youngin's". Kerry didn't connect with the younger crowd - Obama does. He looks cool, he acts cool, he talks cool, he is a "different" kind of politician.

The same exact thing that pisses people off about him in the "older" crowd (especially republicans), is what energizes the 20-somethings. I think this is the year that kids start to vote. Yup.. they say that every year, but if it wasn't for the younger generation - he wouldn't have even won the primary.

[Cha]

35. Here's to you,

kids! :toast: :patriot: :patriot:

[nam78_two]

32. I think so too

Gut feelings aren't terribly defensible, and mine aren't invariably right, but I still think Obama will win this.
I hear you on this...this is exactly how I feel.

I think it is going to be close, it is going to be a roller-coaster emotionally and we are all gonna be tense and anxious till the end, but I still think this we are going to end up winning..Did not feel this way about Gore or Kerry, though I supported both of them just as strongly as I support Senator Obama.
One huge difference I notice this time is that while I was very enthusiastic about both Gore and Kerry, I couldn't help noticing that many other Dems I knew were fairly unenthusiastic about both of them. I am just seeing a lot of enthusiasm about Obama himself, not just dislike of Repukes this time around. I think we are going to win this one -I feel more optimistic every day :).

[ProSense]

33. My gut feeling,

based on evidence of election fraud, the attorney scandal and the 350,000 African Americans votes suppressed in Ohio, tells me Kerry won.

[Anwen]

34. I have the same feeling.

And the less news I watch, the better I feel!

[PerfectSage]

36. Of Course Obama will win. The fat lady is singing loudly. Listen up.

[renie408]

37. Maybe it is the almost embarrassing way that the McCain campaign is imploding? n/t

[cali]

39. nope. and as of yet the McCain campaign is hardly imploding

as measured by the polls.

[Phoonzang]

40. I was absolutely sure Kerry wouldn't win

even when all my friends, Repub and Dem thought he would. With Obama I've gone from thinking he'll win, to being unsure. Flip of a coin.

[On the Road]

41. Obama Has Lots of Ammo Left, and His Reputation is Intact

Gore and Kerry had a lot more strong negatives with voters.

The two occasions Obama got week or two of positive coverage, he led by 7-8 points. He is still close even after the convention and Palin bounces.

All Obama needs to do is to find the right way to communicate. He has always been good at that.

[eshfemme]

42. Same here.

Despite whatever momentary feeling of depression or discouragement I might feel, I can still sense underneath it all, this hopeful conviction that it'll be a landslide for Obama. I didn't have it for Kerry-- I had an inner core of doubt that ultimately ended up in the 2004 re-election of Bush and I hated having that doubt un-erased by reality. But it's a different story because my innermost core is of hope now and I carry that despite whatever emotions the current situation elicits in me.

Is that coherent? I'm not sure. :P

[JI7]

43. i feel better about it also , things are different, and Ohio had Dems in top positions

now. the McCain campaign isn't as good as the Bush campaign was in terms of organization.

i'm glad Obama rejected the public funds. he is free to spend as as wants and has a lot more than Mccain.

[FrenchieCat]

45. I don't think that there is actually a choice......and so I think we are predestined to win....

I think that there is no way that the inferior ticket of McCain/Palin wins because if they did, it would point to something so horribly ugly about this country, that it might be too much for not only us, but for the world to bare. ....considering that OBama is 10 times the candidate that McCain ever was.

IT might be different if the tickets weren't so lopsided when contrasted.....but since there is such inequity when comparing, I have not doubts that we shall prevail.

I understood how Gore didn't prevail even though he got more votes and won Florida. The voter energy was with Bush, and too many Democrats took Gore for granted, after eight years of Clinton.

I understood how Kerry didn't prevail even though Ohio stunk of high heaven. All in all, Kerry just wasn't dynamic enough, and there was still a lot of Bush passion, and he was an incumbent.

But now, the dynamics have totally shifted this time.....and the fact that Obama is not White will not be enough to change the results.....and that really is his only "flaw" (although it shouldn't be in a good world).

Hell, even the Business world prefers Obama, cause he'll be good for business, considering that China has cast a giant shadow over our horizon.

Even the rest of the world wants him to win, at a margin of 4 to 1....That's not something to shrug at even if we tell ourselves that.

he's just a superior candidate in every imaginable way.

And in fact, the posts here help demonstrate how desperately we want him to prevail...and because of that kind of intense "I can almost taste it" kind of energy, he will.

[dailykoff]

46. Yes, of course he'll win, but so did Kerry.

That's what worries me.

[Kablooie]

47. The big question is whether they can overcome the GOP illegal stealing of the election.