Just looked at RCPs poll numbers. This is my takeaway

[OmahaBlueDog]

Both Ras and Gallup's national numbers are continuing to move McSame and Obama closer. With McSame up 1 in National polls, statistically, you're looking at a dead heat (and yes, I know -- National numbers mean nothing)

1. McSame has very little, if any, convention bounce left. He really needed to hold a 4 or 5 point lead going into the debates to have a chance to lock this down. History suggests that, regardless of his opponent, this election cycle would favor the opposition party.
2. I won't go so far to say that Barack is on the offensive, but the momentum clearly seems to be tilting back his way (albeit too slowly for my taste)
3. Sarah Palin is proving again that, in the end, the veep won't win or lose it for Johnny. As her novelty wears off, the reality returns that McSame, ultimately, has to win or lose this thing for himself.
4. Like usual, this is going to come down to the debates and the next 6 weeks of events. The current financial meltdown cannot be helpful for the GOP, and it's going to be hard for the GOP to sell the public on the concept that this is not, somehow, George Bush's fault.
5. I'm aware of the poll numbers in Georgia; having said that, Obama is jumping the gun on pulling resources there. Scale down, turn to guerilla marketing, or beg for more help (heck -- get Andrew Young and Jimmy Carter to visit every college, school, and old folks home if we have to) -- but Atlanta is too big a city with to big of an African American population to just let hang. Even if we lose, going down swinging in Georgia can help plant seeds.

And now I have a question for some intrepid political scientist out there: what were Kerry and Gore's poll numbers like at this point in their respective elections?

[davepc]

1. last cycles polling here

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep16.html

[Wetzelbill]

2. Kerry was down 10-14 in the national polls

He mostly erased that in one debate. I expect Barack to cut into McCain's leadership and national security edges after the first debate. Kerry was also down in the key battlegrounds, I am not sure of the exact numbers. I really don't know any of the Gore numbers, I wasn't as hardcore back then, lol.

Right now, McCain's convention bump has turned a few point Obama edge in the key battleground states into a few point edge for his campaign. If the election were held today, Colorado would be the difference, according to Nate Silver at Fiverthirtyeight. Colorado is barely in McCain's column, but if that switched Obama would get the win.

In all honestly, things look good for Obama. Look for his tougher ads to pick away at McCain and look for the debates to make a difference for him. Sometimes debates don't make a difference for Dems, but whenever a politician has certain advantages in the polls like say in national security or experience, it does help the opposing candidate just to show up and appear presidential. It helped Kerry a ton 4 years ago. It also helped Bush 8 years ago too.

[OmahaBlueDog]

4. I'll tell you what struck me at our convention -- Obama looked and sounded Presidential

I suspect strongly that this image will come through in the debates.

Also, Obama has very goor to excellent oratorial skills, but he also has a very good common touch. It's not quite as good as Bill Clinton's, but it's certainly better than Kerry's or Gore's.

[PerfectSage]

3. RCP 2008 Obama vs Kerry RCP 2004 Obama is doing better than Kerry.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Kerry got hammered in Sept /2004 by the SwiftBoat liars.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[GalleryGod]

5. The FINAL LOOK will be at Captain Queeg McCain.

That will,then, be his 6th CRASH I do believe:rofl: :rofl: :patriot: :spray: