DU, help me understand Ohio!

[leftist.]

This state just perplexes me to no end. It's incredibly close with (I guess) McCain ahead inside the margin of error. I'm the dumbest person in the room - can someone help me understand why Ohio isn't in the "Solid Dem" category? Thanks DU!

[muntrv]

1. I'm not from OH, but I hear that once you get south of Columbus, it's Appalachia.

Those folks are kool aid drinkers.

[OhioChick]

2. You're absolutely right...... n/t

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I'm not from Ohio either, but I have friends there...

My understanding is that the northern, major cities are very blue, and that once you get out into the farmlands, things turn red quickly...

I do believe there's a chance we might take the state for Obama...

I believe that Ohioans are catching on to just how bad the Republican ideas are...

:hi:

[PeaceNikki]

50. That's true of every state. Not just Ohio. Even California.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm

[TheKentuckian]

4. Cincy is loopy too

the home of the greedy prick style Republican. I think we'll probably still pull it out but it does make you wonder what these people are thinking about. They've been ravaged by the Republican assault on the worker as much or more than anyone.

[leftist.]

33. Good point, it's what I wanted to say but better.

They have been "ravaged" by the right, I want to believe voters there are done with it, at least for this election anyway.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

36. As a former Cincinnatian...

I can tell you that the city of Cincinnati is solidly Democratic. It's the suburbs that are totally fucked -- and double that for the outlying counties.

[Epiphany4z]

5. I am from ohio

we drink a lot and have to many churches...lol..only half kidding.......... Hell I can't tell you...nearly everyone I know including a couple of republicans are voting Dem. I am however in NE ohio...I think I am in a sort of Dem stronghold and the big issue is more with S Ohio.

[liberalmuse]

6. I don't know, and my folks live there!

They live in NE Ohio, which is overwhelmingly Dem. Then there are the wealthier suburbs outside of Cleveland that are largely 'pub.

I should add that my Grandma works for the Democratic Party, but there are people in her Lutheran church who have made racist comments about Obama. The evangelical church my mom goes to is pushing Palin. I guess this might shed some light. And now that my memory is coming back from having spent some time there many years ago, there are quite a lot of small minded people where my grandma lives.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. I lived in Columbus for a while... Northern Ohio is more like MI and southern Ohio is Kentucky

more or less.....



I also have cousins who live in Ohio. Not that I am an expert but that is my oversimplified opinion

[denem]

8. One usually overlooked fact: A large Somali immigrant population

One estimate is 60,000 in Columbus, and perhaps 300,000 over all. The population is growing at about10% per year:

So consider the combination: 1. Black;. 2.From Africa; Muslim.

Local RW radio has been running a hate and fear campaign against Somalis for years. You might remember when the photo of Obama appeared in African garb shortly before the primary, Clinton surrogates were eager to point of, there was nothing defamatory there: Obama was wearing his traditional Somalian dress.

[leftist.]

35. Thank you for this information, I was completely unaware nt

[rucky]

9. They work hard, but wear their suffering as a badge of honor.

They'll work the same job for years at the same rate of pay and hardly complain.
If you lose your benefits or get laid off, you don't complain.

That's what Bud Light is for.

They're stuck upholding the unspoken contract between employer and employee of back in the day: If you put in the hours and the years, they're supposed to pay a fair wage and help with retirement. Only the employees are holding up their end of the bargain, and I think there's some pride or honor in that - even as they get screwed over. They don't see any options for themselves, but are not counting on government to fix anything. They think standing up for themselves is the same thing as asking for a handout. They don't know their own value as a worker.

[msallied]

19. Brilliant analysis, actually. I know exactly what you speak of.

And see much of that in my own family back there.

[msallied]

20. Brilliant analysis, actually. I know exactly what you speak of.

And see much of that in my own family back there.

[leftist.]

37. Reading your analysis makes me upset because ...

Because the people you speak of are like so many in the US right now, getting slighted by the right but still willing to buy into their rhetoric.

Thank you for the input!

[BigAnth]

10. The New York Times has focused on Stark County in Ohio as a very representative

demographic for not only Ohio, but for the whole country. Stark County (where I grew up) is just south of the industrialized Cleveland/Akron area and has a real mix of industrial/urban areas (though on a small scale), suburban and rural areas. The Columbus area is a big test market for new products because the demographics reflect the national picture.

[Auggie]

11. I grew up there and I never understood it

Maybe it's different now, but to me, 30 years ago, people seemed to operate under a blanket of naivety. Maybe a lot still do. As long as they got their weekly paycheck with the promise of a pension everything would be okay.

[Doremus]

12. Even in NE Ohio, where I'm from, is filled with bigots.

Half of whom won't even admit how poor the economy is, let alone vote for a person of color.

I used to take some solace in knowing that, as the rest of us were suffering, the people responsible --the ignorant repigs-- would realize the error of their ways. I was wrong! Not only do they not know WHY they are suffering, they won't even admit they are!

It drives me up a fricking wall more and more each day as I listen to their nonsensical tripe. No amount of logic or reason will enter their hollow, concrete skulls. I keep trying though. As the election gets closer I've decided I'm just going to let rip, to hell with etiquette. I had a nutjob in my shop the other day and by the time he left the people out on the sidewalk could hear me yelling.

I've had my fill of ignorance and I'm not taking it anymore!

[BlooInBloo]

15. It's fun looking at this thread and seeing all of the people refusing to say it. hahahaha!

[Auggie]

18. Homophobes too

[doc03]

13. Why pick on Ohio, sometimes Ohio votes for

a Democrat? As a matter of fact every time a Democratic President has been elected Ohio voted for them. What about Indiana? What about all those southern states that will never vote for a Democrat? That crap about southern Ohio being all red is BS, SE Ohio is 2/3 registered Democrats. How do you think Governor Strickland former SE Ohio Congressman got elected?

[leftist.]

23. Sorry, I didn't want to come across as picking on Ohio.

I should have explained that I want to understand why a state that's been recently poked in the eye so many times by republicans would (at least at present) consider voting for them (i.e. McCain) again.

[doc03]

28. Read my post #25 that's my explanation n/t

[slor]

14. I was born and raised in Cincinnati...

lot of bigots there, there are some cool folks too, but we move away.

[msallied]

17. I hear ya. lol I grew up in Dayton and now live in Washington.

The state has one of the highest exodus rates in the country. lol

[msallied]

16. I grew up there. Let's see...

It is literally in the heart of the country. It is the crossroads between the heavily-Democratic east coast and the heavily red Midwest states and south. It borders the Dem Michigan to the north, so a lot of that bleeds down. The farther to the south and west you get, the more conservative it gets. Columbus toward the middle and it is basically where red becomes blue. That and it being a huge college town helps with that.

It's basically a gigantic melting pot of working class, middle-class people. It also has a lot of racists. It's a swing state because there is a lot of pull between its equally heavily populated liberal (Columbus, Cleveland) and conservative (Cincinnati) population centers.

They have been one of the most hardest-hit states economically as the manufacturing and auto-making sectors have collapsed. They have recently ousted their horribly unpopular Republican governor and currently have a Democrat in there. It is my hope that this will help swing the state blue this time around. They are hurting too bad right now to go against their best interests. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that my home state doesn't let me down this time.

[doc03]

25. Here's something to think about, Ohio has been one of the

most hardest-hit states economically, right? What party is responsible for giving us NAFTA and the WTO? Say 100000 people lose a good Union steel worker job and have to leave the state to get another job to support their family. There you lose a good chunk of your reliable Democratic base. The people left working low paying non-union jobs are the ones the Republicans are always able convince all their problems were caused by Democrats. The Republicans always use the reliable guns, gays and God bullshit and this time they have the race issue on top of that.

[Obamarulz11]

21. My Graduate School Classmate from Cleveland

Also one of my girlfriends :) She recieved her undergrad from Ohio State. She told me that Columbus divides the state among political beliefs. North of Columbus: Intelligent and Blue. South of Columbus: Stupid and Red!!

[Auggie]

30. Athens -- home of Ohio University and my alma mater -- votes blue and smart!

It's an oasis of liberalism

[yardwork]

22. There are many Ohios. At least five very distinct regions.

I was born and raised in Ohio, but what I know of the section where I lived doesn't tell anyone much about the other regions. The cities up along Lake Erie are full of blue collar workers, many of them of 19th and early 20th century immigrant stock. Unions. Many of them Catholic. Hit very hard by the economy. Usually solidly Democratic but they can be racist. Cleveland is large, ethnically diverse, and I'm sure that Obama will do very well there.

The wealthy suburbs have a mixture of Republican and Democratic voters. Usually well educated, probably less racist. Old-time Republicans. But there are also mega-churches there.

Columbus is right in the middle of the state and has grown rapidly in recent decades, unique among Ohio's cities. It's also home to the very large Ohio State University. Columbus is solidly blue, well educated.

The rural areas in southeastern Ohio are a sea of red, dotted with the blue of little college towns. Farmers and small manufacturers. Heavily fundamentalist Christian. Incredibly easily swayed to vote against their own interests and they do, over and over again. Guns, God, and gays dominate their world view. Hopeless.

As others have mentioned, Cincinnati on the Ohio River, just across Kentucky, is also very conservative, very influenced by fundamentalist Christians. On the other hand, there's a significant population of African Americans in Cincy. Could be interesting if they get a high turnout...

Dayton, north of Cincinnati, is near the Indiana border. Lots of military installations. Very Republican. Very white.

As you can see, it was easy to manipulate the Ohio vote in 2004 by suppressing votes in some key Democratic strongholds. To win Ohio, Obama MUST be proactive and vigilant about ensuring voting access and ballot counting fairness.

[leftist.]

40. You echo what I'm learning ...

You echo what I'm learning, and thank you for your analysis. Several other posts have pointed out how Ohio is a real bellwether state with so many facets that match the overall electorate. I learned much from this post, and I think that Obama *will* turn out the vote and fight against the nonsense that went on in 2000 and 2004. Again thank you!

[Sugarcoated]

24. An older gentleman from my neighborhood

who's been involved in volunteering and cavassing since JFK vs Nixon in 1960 in St. Louis, now here in the Philly burbs, he said the Republican's have had a very strong presence on the ground that goes way back. The Democrats are playing catch up, according to him.

[ellie]

26. I live in Toledo, OH right now

I am originally from a suburb of Toledo. It is/was a union town and the county seat for Lucas County. The auto industry used to be well-represented here. We still have the Jeep plant and GM Powertrain. We had a Ford Stamping plant, but it is closed. We also had another Chrysler plant out in Perrysburg Township, but it too, is closed. One other notable plant closing was Libbey-Owens-Ford glass, where my dad worked for 38 years. There were three plants but two closed and the place was bought by Pilkington. My mom still gets my dad's pension (he died 10 years ago) and she lives in fear that she will lose her health benefits if the place closes.

Currently, Toledo has Democratic mayor and a Democratic city council majority. We are very close to the Michigan border and in times past, there was talk of seceding Toledo to Michigan because there was a feeling Toledo was being ignored by Columbus, the state capital. I believe the suburbs are all Republican, but I am not sure: Sylvania, Perrysburg, Rossford, Oregon, Maumee, Waterville, Whitehouse. Once you get past these suburbs, it is very small towns and farm country, most likely Republican.

Toledo is located right on I-75 and I-80/90 (the Ohio Turnpike), so we really are in the heartland. We are 60 miles from Detroit and Ontario, Canada; three hours from Cleveland; 4.5 hours from Chicago; and two hours from Columbus. We are also located on the Maumee River and consequently Lake Erie. Shipping grain was/is a big industry.

We have two great state universities, the University of Toledo, which is doing a lot of research in solar power; and Bowling Green State University.

This is all off the top of my head. I don't read the Toledo Blade newspaper anymore after they tried to break the union.

[leftist.]

41. This is great information, thank you so much! (nt)

[RollWithIt]

27. Born and raised in Ohio, I live in Florida now, but I still visit often and know the poliitcs...

Here is the deal. Through 2004 the suburbs in Ohio showed up and voted for Republicans in huge numbers. The Republican Party in Ohio was very strong and very well organized. On the other hand up until early 2006 the Democratic Party had very little organization and no funding from the national Democratic Party. In early 2006 the national Democratic Party started pouring huge amounts of funding into the state. A combination of Republican blunders (Gov Bob Taft Republican convicted of a crime in court) and better funding pushed the state to elect a Democratic Governor, Democratic Secretary of State, Democratic Senator to the United States Congress, and a Democratic Attorney General.

That state will vote for Obama in 2008. Bank on it.

[leftist.]

42. I hope and believe that you are right my friend, thanks for the post!

[ContinentalOp]

29. Forget it leftist. It's Ohio.

[doc03]

31. I would like to remind you no Democrat has ever been elected

without carrying Ohio so forget about Ohio and see what happens.

[AndyTiedye]

48. It Is Almost a Must-Win For Us

If we lose Ohio, we have to run the table everywhere else we have a chance.

[ContinentalOp]

52. Haha, I think maybe you don't quite get the reference I was making.

The "forget it" doesn't mean that Democrats should ignore Ohio. I just meant that the OP should forget trying to understand the place, considering all of the election shenanigans that go on there.

[leftist.]

43. Hehe, I understand that it's a unique state ...

But I'm also learning how certain areas are considered to be representative of the US as a whole. I can't speak for anyone else but this thread has helped me tremendously!

[leftist.]

32. I'm reading through these replies now, let me add something ...

I'm reading through these replies now - and thanks to everyone for the great information!!! Let me ask if I'm looking at Ohio *wrong*. Should it be viewed as a quasi-red state that Obama has the potential to flip with his GOTV ground work? That might be a better way of viewing the state. Though I have to say I'm still confused as to how a state that's been so abused by the right would even be thinking of voting for McCain.

[Awsi Dooger]

39. Unlike Virginia and Colorado, there is no slow but steady demographic shift in Ohio

That's the best way I can summarize it. We recently benefited from inept and corrupt Republican leadership in Ohio, plus the state economy was much worse than the national economy. That gave Kerry a chance in 2004 and paved the way for our big Ohio wins in 2006. But it was never a case of a fundamental shift toward the left.

As you can see from these numbers, Ohio at base instinct was a few points right leaning compared to the nation as a whole from '88 to '04, when it narrowly voted our way compared to the national popular vote margin. In 2004 the lousy state economy turned the partisan index slightly our way. (Example: Bush won nationally by 2.46% in '04, so the +2.10 in Ohio equated to +.36 Democratic compared to the national margin):

Ohio:
'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton(40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton(47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican
'04: Bush (50.81 - 48.71) = +.36% Democratic

In 2008, Ohio wants to vote our way, but we nominated a candidate who is not particularly strong in Ohio.

[leftist.]

45. Thank you Awsi, this was very helpful.

I didn't go back and look up the pre-Clinton numbers. I'm much more comfortable now thinking of Ohio as a potential pick-up.

[faithfulcitizen]

51. still lots of fundies, churches, & blue collar. Think Indiana, just more cities.

[darius15]

34. Cleveland, Columbus are blue.

The rest is red.

I guess it comes down to getting the vote out in Cleveland & Columbus, and hoping that will cut down the margins that McCain will get in the rural areas.

[doc03]

53. I have to disagree, that's exactlly what Obama

did in Ohio and got beat by Hillary. I complained on DU before the primaries that Obama never even attemted to get votes in SE Ohio and I got flamed. People said Obama would carry Ohio by getting the vote from Columbus and Cleveland you are all uneducated racists there and it's no use wasteing his time there. Well guess what Hillary Clinton won in the SE counties 2-1 or better and I think that's what gave her the state. All I heard was we were racists here and wouldn't vote for him anyway, well if we are so uneducated and prejudiced here how do you think we managed to vote for a women over all the male contenders?

[DCBob]

38. I wouldn't give up on Ohio but it is not the only road to victory..

It may be more likely for Obama to win IA+CO+NM than Ohio and still win the election.

[leftist.]

46. I think we get IA, CO, NM, *and* OH

I've become very comfortable with the notion that we get a point or two more than what the national polls tell us because of Obama's enourmous ground effort. I think that alone will make a huge different on election day, and I hope I'm right! Thanks for your post!

[Hippo_Tron]

44. What I don't get is that Sherrod Brown who is definitely more liberal than Obama...

Had no trouble getting elected. Yes I know that he's a populist on trade and Obama isn't. But are people really willing to just ignore all of his liberal positions because of that?

[ladym55]

47. Ohio is a really mixed bag

I've read through everyone's comments so far. I've lived in NE Ohio since 1981, but I'm still an East Coast person at heart. I have met some incredible, wonderful, and hard-working progressives here. I've also met far too many uneducated, fundamentalist, homophobic, and racist people. Racism is a REAL issue in Ohio. The viral emails about Obama as Muslim extremist do VERY well where I live.

I had one older friend (educated) tell me last week that she didn't think Obama could win. Her friends wouldn't "vote for a black man," and then she tried to tell me that "McCain wouldn't be too bad." I said, "No, he'll be worse than bad."

This state elected the very progressive Sherrod Brown, but we are also the home of John Boehner. Ohio is rustbelt, and many still hope that manufacturing will come back. Many here are very uncomfortable with education and don't like educated people. Fundamentalist megachurches have far too much influence.

The good news is that Obama is a terrific grassroots campaign working hard all across the state. They have built on what Kerry started in 2004 and expanded it much farther. I'm impressed with what they are doing.

[Tribetime]

49. 2 of the 3 polls this week have Obama up by 4

the other has McCain up by 4. As long as Blackwell isn't in control I feel much better.

[thewall77]

54. I'm counting 4 polls putting McCain ahead in Ohio this week

Fox, PPP, Survey USA and Suffolk University have McCain up in Ohio. The last one to show Obama up there was Quinnipiac on Sept. 11.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html