DemocratSinceBirth
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:46 AM
Original message |
Obama Almost Back To Parity At Intrade-Hold Your Pants-McSame Now Tanking Like The Dow |
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Edited on Wed Sep-17-08 09:01 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
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Zynx
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:47 AM
Response to Original message |
1. Intrade is not nearly as reliable as people give it credit for. |
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I've seen the studies, but it doesn't matter. They just follow the bulk of polling data.
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geek tragedy
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. Yep. Conventional wisdom. |
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If/when Gallup daily shows Obama ahead, his trade value will skyrocket.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:54 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
5. Don't Look Now But Obama Passed Him |
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Perhaps issues or fundamentals and not personalities will assert themselves in this election...As long as the former asserts themselves we will win...If the latter assert themselves we will probably lose...IMHO,it's that simple...
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
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But a prudent gambler would follow current events and determine how those current events will affect the polls....
For instance, Patriots to win the SB isn't as sure a bet with Brady going down...
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scheming daemons
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:56 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
6. It reflects the mood of the country...and is a good indication of who is "winning the week" |
DemocratSinceBirth
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
8. The "Wisdom Of Crowds" |
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Edited on Wed Sep-17-08 08:59 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
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EV_Ares
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message |
4. Well, I like it anyway, it is a guide and probably just as reliable as the daily tracking poll. |
DemocratSinceBirth
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Wed Sep-17-08 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
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I suspect it's been right about 95% of the time in predicting the winner...I am referring to election eve odds...
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Fri May 10th 2024, 09:11 PM
Response to Original message |