Plouffe: We are going to spend $ 39 million in Florida. 1.4 million registered AA and young voters

[grantcart]

In this video posted by Hope and Change:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x191908

Plouffe made the statement that the Obama campaign is committed to spending $ 39 million in Florida alone. That is a staggering amount when considering that McCain's entire budget is going to be $ 85 million --

(of course that does not count the RNC money that they will get but it is not clear yet what percent of that will be spent on Senate campaigns and what percent will be spent on McCain. Some Senate seats like Dole in NC are now considered endangered - see below)--


Plouffe restated his previous statement that there were 500,000+ African Americans that were registered and did not vote but has now added that there are 900,000 registered young voters that did not vote in 2004. These are registered voters and there are millions unregistered that they are going after to register.

It seems like any poll coming out of Florida has to be considered completely worthless until the election. Also it will be interesting to see how much money McCain puts into Florida to try and fight off Obama.

It seems that right now McCain is spending money like a drunken sailor and that he may be running dry by the time of the debates.

[Curtland1015]

1. Good news. Winning Florida would be amazing.

We'll have to see what happens, but this is a promising sign.

[flamingdem]

17. There are lots of gains to be made - let's get rid of the Diaz-Balart Bastista dinosaurs too

while we're about it.

[BeyondGeography]

2. McCain has been spending nothing in Florida and still leads in all the polls there

That said, I applaud this effort, for the simple reason that, if it works, we win. I also trust that the Obama campaign won't misallocate their funds and that their work in FL won't be at the expense of pursuing an identical path in the other battlegrounds.

[1corona4u]

4. I don't think Mccrap leads here...I really don't...

[grantcart]

5. The polls in Florida are meaningless if your going to spend that kind of money

and turnout 1.4 million registered voters that did not vote in 2004.

Any poll coming out of Florida has to be considered highly suspicious.


There is no way Obama would spend $ 39 million there if their internals didn't show that they were going to win. McCain has to watch every penny and any money he spends there is money cannot spend in OH MI or CO.

[BeyondGeography]

8. They think we have a chance to win; we do...they "know" nothing of the sort

Past experience should have taught us something about Florida by now.

[1corona4u]

3. Oh, one thing....

While I was watching CNN last night, they had John-whatshisname, here is Riviera Beach, which I thought was strange at first, but then they said he was covering an effort by the Obama camp to get Riviera Beach's black voters back into voting. Riviera Beach is mostly black, and in the 2000 elections, they because so disgusted with it, that they stopped voting. Supposedly, Obama has people going through the city, door to door, making sure that they can find these disenfranchised voters and making sure they turn out to vote.

I think Obama is going to make sure he gets every.single.vote. :-)

[OHdem10]

6. Last eveing someone on Cnn reported that the Obama Campaign

has already spent 8 million dollars in Fla to McCain's 6 hundred Thousand
and that McCain is still winning in Fla. Money helps but Money does
not always win.

[grantcart]

7. no GOTV wins - the point is that they are not just spending it on media but

on a massive GOTV campaign, which if we had in either 2000 or 2004 we would have won.

I don't think that we should consider Florida in any scenario but the Republicans are crazy if they think that they can take Florida against this kind of an onslaught without spending some major bucks in Florida.

Finally the best polls in the campaigns are the the internals of the campaign that is doing the most canvassing. Obama wouldn't be spending that kind of money if the internals weren't showing a payoff.

[Boz]

9. This is based on the polls talking to 2004 voters,there are almost as many that didnt vote that will

That the polls cant talk to because they don't know they exist.

So the polls and any reporting based on it is massively flawed right out the gate.

And those flaws actually break our way and in our favor, we are hugely under-reported in Florida and thats not a 2004 wishfull thinking Kerry last minute voter surge, thats a flat out confirmed by the state registrar, NEW DEM voter registration surge.

Because of the ground and money game, and the straining of RNC resources because of NEWLY challenged downtickets that Obama has brought into play we could actually be seeing a Mondale/Regan landslide flipped.

Although I don't think it will be 49 to 1 state rout as in Mondale/Reagan, it would not be a stretch to see it go Obama 44 to McCain 6 states.

That is absolutely blue skying, and I dont think we will take Florida, but by doing the HARD GOTV and making the repugs have to save Florida we kill them in alot of places they never would expect us to play, so a 44 to 6 state rout is not completely out of reach given everything being everything in how its playing out.

[grantcart]

12. I agree except that I don't think it will go over 38 states

[Boz]

14. As I said total blue sky, but not unreachable 38 is closer to reality while I was talking clear rout

Of massive movement we could only hope for, but wont likely hit.

[ieoeja]

15. And it's not just about winning the presidency.

That is what always pissed me off about the DLC limited state strategy. No interest in coattails whatsoever. I am seeing McCain commercials in Chicago of all places. He isn't going to win shit here and knows it. But enough "evil Obama and his Democratic allies" commercials might help some downticket races for the GOP.

The GOP has had a 50-State Strategy for decades.

[flamingdem]

10. GREAT! This is exciting. There are LOTS of democratic gains to be made in FL!!

Just hope the Obama lawyers on top of the Voter Fraud and disenfranchisement.... please update on any news in that area and thanks

[grantcart]

13. tks

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

11. Please, oh please, Obama Camp, don't touch the Florida.

He will not win there. The state will vacuum up his money. They control the rolls, where the machines go, how the machines count, and how to not count any recount.

[flamingdem]

16. Let's not underestimate the Obama campaign's insider take on the situation

I doubt we know more than they do and obviously they know what happened in Florida before..

[rockymountaindem]

18. I have to agree, sadly nt

[grantcart]

19. they are not spending that kind of money if the internals aren't showing positive results

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

20. you're right, but.....

when you control the line-length and average wait time, the names on the rolls, the collection of provisional ballots, the determination of the validity of ballots, and the ability to challenge the official count, you own the state, regardless of how you monkey with the vote totals. Is Obama ahead 55-45% in Florida? Because with all the advantages the Rs have with their machinery in place, that's what it's gonna take to win a squeaker there.

[grantcart]

23. and isn't the problem that we don't fight where they have their machinery in place

part of Obama's strategy includes a phalanx of attorneys to fight every inch of the way. One of the keys to Obama's IL success is that he won the legal battles to get all the legal votes counted and stop the funny stuff.

If we don't take apart the machinery you just encourage these clowns.

Oh and BTW if Obama can get those 1.5 million to the polls and register another huge amount he will be ahead 55-45 in Florida.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

25. I hope you're right. I'd swamp OH, though, where the machinery is ours.

[PermanentRevolution]

22. Don't give up on us, dammit!

I know our track record lately hasn't exactly been stellar, but we can deliver! A little moral support for us hard-working Floridians, please...

[cliffordu]

21. Good stuff. K&R

Yo.

[flamingdem]

24. k n r

[Cha]

26. Getting Florida back in our column after it was stolen from us in

2000 by jeb bush, katherine harris, and teresa lapore's stupidity.. will be Justice on a Grand Scale!

What a battle there will be down there again. Who's the Secretary of State..we already know who Gov crist is.

[PermanentRevolution]

27. New Office Opening TODAY - Coral Gables (Miami)

It's on Miracle Mile, the main shopping/nightlife center of Coral Gables, so it should get a good amount of foot traffic. They also have visibility events planned in Little Havana, which is the heart of the Cuban-American population and until recently a Republican stronghold. But demographics are shifting amongst younger Cuban-Americans, and the party can make real gains here.

And here's me, working right across the street, living within walking distance, with a large chunk of time in October where I'll only be working a few hours at night with my daytime largely free. Whatever shall I do with my spare time?

[kennetha]

28. Sounds to me like Obama is double down on winning Florida

They have spent a lot of money to McCain's almost nothing -- not just on ads, but on a massive field operation.

Check this article out from a Florida newspaper:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article808637.ece">Florida may be falling from Obama's grasp

Who knows, but if they had accepted public financing, they might have to think of bailing on Florida right about now. But money is the mother's milk of politics.

[grantcart]

29. the newspaper article is silly

The latest poll shows Obama closing to 5 points and that is including the 'Palin' Bounce and before the meltdown which will effect seniors big time.

But they have it backwards:

But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there's little tangible evidence it's paying off.


The polls run way behind the internals of a well run campaign with a big ground operation -Republican or Democrat - Obama is updating their contact lists everynight. If they are spending the money that means that they are seeing tangible results or they wouldn't keep spending the money. The pollsters have to be the ones asking what are we missing?

[grantcart]

30. CNN NOW HAS FLORIDA TIED