Bounce over: Obama now ahead in EC 286-252

[liberalpragmatist]

In case people are concerned, McCain's bounce is slowly but surely disappearing.

Obama leads McCain narrowly in two of the four main tracking polls. DKos/Research2000 shows him up 48-44 over McCain and Hotline/Diageo has the race at 48-45 Obama. Both these polls tend to post more favorable numbers for Obama because they weight Democrats higher than the other two major ones.

In Gallup and Rasmussen, the margins are 47-45 McCain and 48-47 McCain, respectively.

In non-tracking polls, Obama and McCain are TIED in the latest AP/Ipsos poll and Obama is 2 points ahead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll (not an online poll - a traditional poll).

AND, polling in the swing states indicates that Obama is VERY narrowly ahead in both Colorado and Virginia. The RealClearPolitics average has Obama's electoral vote count at 286 to McCain's 252. Obama holds all the Kerry states and picks up Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

Given Palin's slow-moving crash and the fast-moving financial crash, these numbers SHOULD get better for us.

Now all Obama has to do (and it's a BIG "to-do") is do well at the debates. I doubt they'll be a Kerry-Bush style bloodbath because McCain is a better debater and more at ease in these settings than Bush is. Obama can also be inconsistent and a little too long-winded. But if he can keep his answers sharp and on-point, if he can allow his natural intelligence to shine and if he can just look presidential he'll probably "win." A lot of undecideds are unsure about Obama -- so long as they're not voting for racial reasons, if he can just appear like a knowledgeable, credible president, many of them will likely vote for him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I Have Watched McSame And Bush* Debate Several Time

Against one another and against other opponents...IMHO, Bush* is the better debater...He's much better at staying on message and presenting himself as "everyman"...