Thoughts on polls

[apnu]

I've been looking at Daily Kos's daily poll data. Its fun watching Palin become McCain's albatross. But I noticed something odd in the demographics.

Here is the demographics from 09/17/2008 (found at http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/17)

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
Men 515 (47%)
Women 585 (53%)
Democrats 389 (35%)
Republicans 283 (26%)
Independents 329 (30%)
Other/Refused 99 (9%)
White 803 (73%)
Black 146 (13%)
Latino 139 (13%)
Other/Ref 12 (1%)
18-29 197 (18%)
30-44 361 (33%)
45-59 302 (27%)
60+ 240 (22%)
Northeast 243 (22%)
South 317 (29%)
Midwest 304 (28%)
West 236 (21%)

Notice that 73% of the poll is white. This bears out every day going all the way back to 9/11/2008. Just change the last number in the URL to what date you want to see and check it out for yourself.

I honestly believe there is no way 73% of all the voters turning up on election day will be 73% white. No way, 60% maybe, but not 73%.

I think a major part of Obama's voting block is not being represented in this poll, and likely other polls too. I'm reminded of Harold Washington's first mayoral victory in Chicago, 1983. (Quick side note, I had the pleasure of meeting him once, was the most special political interaction I've ever had) He won 51.7% to 48% Yet everybody had him trailing in the polls going into election day. The Tribune asked him the morning after his victory how he won and Harold quipped "You never botherd to poll the South Side"

I have a quiet feeling in my gut that the same might be happening here with Obama.

[Fresh_Start]

1. 2004 77% of voters were white

11% african American
8% latino
2% asian
2% other