Is Indiana winnable?

[Project Grudge]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html

The latest polls show McCain +6. I'd like to think Obama can win my state, but I want a smart use of resources too. +6 is within winning distance, and I like the 50 state strategy, but this election is important and I want to WIN. There are a lot of fundies here. Is anyone hearing anything on the ground or know if there will be a push to win here?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. It is now.

[Fresh_Start]

2. what party controls the election process?

if its a GOP SOS, then it might not be the best bet

[1corona4u]

3. According to my sister, who lives in Indy, it is...

she told me about a month ago, that people who are voting for Obama, call it the "Biden ticket". I said, I don't care what they call it, as long as they vote for him. :-)She thinks he has tons of support there.

[Chipper Chat]

4. Obama CAN win Indiana if he comes here to campaign.

Or send Hillary. I live in northeast Indiana and there are lots of Obama signs in yards. The social issues are losing ground to the economy. It will be close.
Lurking Obama staffers take note. He should visit:
1) Anderson (rust belt heaven)
2) Madison (win converts in the small towns)
3) Lafayette (Purdue)
4) Bloomington (IU)
5) Greenwood (infiltrate the GOP strongholds)

[olkaz]

6. I think it's win/win to campaign there

Force the republicans to change their plan. Go offense all the time.

I hope they do it.

[anneboleyn]

11. And, I would recommend Indianapolis, South Bend (Notre Dame), and cities near Illinois. Obama drew a

big crowd here when he last visited (Terre Haute, I think)

[Project Grudge]

12. Nice list. add Evansville, Columbus, and maybe Terre Haute

He came to Bloomington during the primary and spoke to thousands at Assembly Hall. I think you're right on the other towns; he should go to the smaller Redder towns to get converts and stay away from college towns, which he has pretty handily, I think. Surrogates like Hillary and Biden would do wonders here.

[Chipper Chat]

19. If Obama would stop in BEAN BLOSSOM it would get national coverage.

Even FOX couldn't resist poking fun at Hoosier towns.
Also, there is a HOPE Indiana just ripe for Hillary (dont send Bill). Or he could go to Union City (pop 2000?) whose Main Street straddles the border between Indiana and Ohio. Great news story (Katie are you listening?)

[Marsala]

5. In theory it may be winnable

In practice? Almost certainly not. If Indiana goes blue, it would be part of such a big landslide that it wouldn't really matter.

[democraticinsurgent]

7. The Repubs are actually worried here

Even our SOS Todd Rokita, a certified Republican, thinks so:

From a report by CNN's John King:

But Republican Secretary of State Todd Rokita, the state's chief elections officer, said Sen. John McCain's campaign had better take notice.

"They have a fight here in Indiana and it is real," Rokita said.

The numbers are dramatic: In 2004, 2.5 million ballots were cast for president in Indiana. And in that entire cycle, the state received some 565,000 new and updated registrations.

This year, the number is already in excess of 562,000 and given the recent spike in activity by campaigns and other organizations, Rokita tells CNN he expects to hit a record 750,000 by the state's October 6 registration deadline.

"I will say that this is the first time I have ever seen a Democratic presidential campaign this engaged in this state. Usually Indiana is No. 1 for the red states on election night when it comes to president," Rokita told CNN in an interview in his state Capitol office in Indianapolis.

http://www.blueindiana.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=3067

[anneboleyn]

8. I live here too, and based on anecdotal evidence I think it is winnable -- plus during the primaries

Indiana was much, much closer than was predicted and basically sounded the end to Hillary's campaign (she was predicted to win handily, but won by a mere squeak) I see Obama signs everywhere (near Indy) and it is possible -- Indiana last went blue in 1964. Not sure what the ground scene is like here, though. Be interesting to hear what the campaign thinks and what the internal numbers look like. Obama has definitely been advertising here.

[Hawkowl]

9. NO.

Born and raised in NW Indiana, now live in Washington. No way in hell IN will go democratic in 2008. This is the state that voted for Reagan, Bush etc. even when Indiana had about a 20% unemployment rate in the 1980's. Not to mention that this is perhaps one of the most rascist states in the union. The KKK actually took over the state government (governorship, state house etc) in the 1920's.

If Indiana actually did go for Obama, it would mean a landslide of epic proportions. There is better chance for Alaska going for Obama.

[Kolesar]

21. I was delighted that the Dems took all those Indiana Congressional seats in 2006

I suspect that Obama has a lot of name recognition and a "favorite son" status for NW Indiana voters, since that area identifies with Chicago. But, having lived there for three years and when Reagan took over, I doubt it.

[TheKentuckian]

10. I'll go with winnable

a little campaigning and a trickle of ads are probably worth the effort.

[abumbyanyothername]

13. Indiana is definitely winnable

and so are North Carolina and Arizona.

Fix in your mind the idea of a landslide approaching a near sweep outside the deep south (+ Texas if you don't include it). Convince yourself that this is certainly true.

Then start to act like the gracious winner that you and your party will certainly become.

[bigwillq]

14. Yes

Obama will win Indiana. :bounce:

[Jackinbox]

17. I just don't see it

I live here and I just don't see it happening. Don't get me wrong....we are making huge inroads here.

However we lost by 21 points in 2004. Has that kind of defecit ever been overcome in a state in one election cycle anytime in recent history?

If we get it below 5 points, it will be an incredible success.

[DinahMoeHum]

15. I say campaign HARD in Indiana, in ALL the states "up for grabs"

Don't dare write off ANY state as unwinnable - that is the essence of the "50-State Strategy"

:kick:

[Project Grudge]

16. a mixed bag

some say yes and a strong NO. I never thought it could happen, but if it can this is the year. GOTV is sooo important! I didn't know Rokita is worried. I also think we need money in getting Hill to stay in Congress. It's close every year and Sodrel is terrible on every issue, but has support. If we can get Hill, I think Obama could feed off of that. However, looks like Mitch is coasting to re-election and that does not bode well.

[Stop Cornyn]

18. If Obama had picked Roemer or Bayh, we'd be leading in Indiana. With Biden, it may be out of reach.

In the unlikely event that we don't win (and I'm 80% sure we will), Obama's tactically weak choice of Biden versus McCain's pick of Palin will be seen as the blunder which cost Obama the election.

With that off my chest, I think we win notwithstanding the fact that Biden brings ZERO electoral votes to the ticket and undercut the change message and the judgment matters more than experience message.

Ultimately, Palin may become a drag on the ticket once voters come to understand who she really is, and Biden is definitely not a drag on the ticket (just as he gained us no electoral votes he also most assuredly did not cost us any electoral votes).

[BlooInBloo]

20. No, but he should still campaign hard there to force McLiar to spend his money.

[itsrobert]

23. Thanks

I agree!

[itsrobert]

22. It maybe; however, if Obama spends money, McCain has to spend money

It's that simple. Can Obama win a money contest with McCain? Can McCain keep up with Obama? If McCain has to spend money in Indiana, that's less he can use in other states. Simple math.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

24. MAYBE

There would probably have to be a tidal wave for Obama on election night to make it a sure thing though. If he finishes really strong and he makes significant inroads in "red" territory, Indiana very well may flip and if it does, then an Obama victory is certain. For the first time in my (voting) life, I feel like my vote could really make a difference in this election. I don't recall hearing (or seeing) any Clinton, Gore, or Kerry ads here in Indiana so I'm heartened by his aggressive campaigning here in Indiana, a state that few other Democrats would think to consider courting in a Presidential election. I might add that I was listening to a weekly state political radio show last week (Indiana Week in Review) and they were discussing our upcoming Gubernatorial election (we've been under the thumb of *itch Daniels-former Bush Budget Director for the past four years and probably for the next four :mad:) and how people might split between voting for Daniels for Governor but vote for Obama for President, so it sounds like Indiana is in play. Anecdotally speaking, I've seen far more Obama stickers this season than McSame stickers but Marion County (where I reside) has been trending more Democratic over the past few years. We just had our first Democratic Mayor in approximately 30 years up until last year (he was unfortunately defeated for a third term mostly because of property taxes)

[Orsino]

25. If the polls say only +6 for McCain, then we may already have won it.

But we may never know for sure, unfortunately.

[mvd]

26. Might take another cycle

Just like CO and VA have become more blue and have a good chance of going for us this time.

[EstimatedProphet]

27. I do think it's possible

So far, I've seen several Obama stickers, and 2 McCain stickers. I've actually seen more for Ron Pajul than McCain. Anecdotal I know, but it does suggest to me that there's more going on here now.

[codjh9]

28. The Yahoo poll composite page has McCain currently only up by 5%, not 6.

[progressiveforever]

29. In the right circumstances, yes

Indiana and Kentucky are usually the first states to report returns on election night. We usually lose both...a win would be great.