The Daily Widget – Fri 9/19 – O-285, M-253 – Colorado Blue; Virginia Red; New Hampshire Weakens

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Thirty-two more new state polls were released yesterday, adding to the 38 released the day before. That’s 70 freakin’ polls in two days flat! Three states move to the right today, while one state moves to the left.

After finding the Blue territory yesterday, Virginia returns to a McCain lead today. I have a feeling this will be Virginia’s story for the next seven weeks, teetering on the fence and switching sides frequently. The same can be said for Colorado, which is now polling blue on average and changes to Lean Obama today.

New Hampshire has been weakening for Obama since the conventions, and a new poll conducted by American Research Group shows McCain leading in New Hampshire by 3 points. Obama is still leading in the state on average, but New Hampshire moves from the Weak Obama column to the Lean Obama column today.

Iowa seems to be finding the center as well, polling as a tie for both candidates in the new Big Ten Battleground poll. Iowa is currently the bluest of the swing states and Obama’s chances are still very good there, but we move it from the Strong Obama column to the Weak Obama column today because of the new poll.

McCain’s lead in the popular vote is currently jumping due to all the red-state polling in the past couple days. He now holds a 1% lead over Obama, yet he hasn’t been able to scratch the 60 million vote mark. Obama has been there, done that. In the weeks to come we should see Obama’s popular vote count creep back up while McCain’s either remains flat or drops. I think we’re seeing McCain’s ceiling right now, just short of 60 million votes.

Trading leaps by 3% for Obama in both sets of states today. This is the equivalent of Obama gaining 3% in a national poll in one day. Great news!

Now that the Obama campaign has officially dropped Alaska from its slate of battleground states, I have changed the name of Obama’s Eighteen to Obama’s Seventeen and revised the chart and tracking graphs. Also, as the race tightens and more new polls are conducted for each state, I have shrunk the margin of error to less than 4.0%. Any lead between 4.0% and 10.0% will now be considered "Weak" and a lead of less than 4.0% will now be considered "Lean" or within the margin of error (down from 5.0% or less previously). Let the confusion commence :D


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Alabama Obama 34, McCain 64 (Survey USA, 9/17, +/- 3.9, 655 LV)
Colorado Obama 45, McCain 44 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 41 (Insider Advantage, 9/17, +/- 4.3, 508 LV)
Connecticut Obama 53, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 9/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 44 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 51 (Survey USA, 9/17, +/- 3.8, 707 LV)
Georgia Obama 35, McCain 56 (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/11, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 9/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Georgia Obama 41, McCain 57 (Survey USA, 9/16, +/- 3.8, 684 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 51 (Insider Advantage, 9/17, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Illinois Obama 53, McCain 37 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
Indiana Obama 43, McCain 47 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 612 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 44 (Selzer & Co., 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 45, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 643 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 44 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
Minnesota Obama 47, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Nebraska Obama 34, McCain 60 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 45, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 9/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey Obama 47, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
New Mexico Obama 49, McCain 42 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
Ohio Obama 41, McCain 42 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 619 LV)
Oregon Obama 50, McCain 40, Nader 2 (Portland Tribune, 9/14, +/- 4.4, 500 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 45, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 608 LV)
South Carolina Obama 37, McCain 59 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Vermont Obama 60, McCain 36 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 41, McCain 48 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 409 RV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 9/17, +/- 4.3, 502 LV)
Washington Obama 47, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 45, McCain 44 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 616 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.


5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

[Meshuga]

1. I wonder how much the Mark Warner election for senator influences Virginia

I heard part of his debate on C-SPAN radio and I was not so impressed with his performance. Perhaps he did well in the parts I didn't hear. Regardless, I vote in Maryland (DC Metro) so I might take the day off and go to Virginia right after I vote on election day to drive people to the polls.

I like the fact that EV numbers are going back our way! Now we can breathe a little better. :-)

[phrigndumass]

3. That's a legitimate question, coattails should help

People who vote for Obama will most likely vote for Warner as well, and vice versa.

Driving people to the polls is always a helpful thing to do!

I'm certainly breathing easier these past couuple days. :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Meshuga]

7. And a pleasant morning to you as well! :-)

Thanks for your daily posts!

[Curtland1015]

2. Well, we're winning, but it's still too close! Let's take Florida!

Thanks as always for the graphs!

[phrigndumass]

4. $39 million budgeted for Florida ought to do the trick :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Kukesa]

5. Good morning. Nice work, as usual. n/t

[phrigndumass]

6. thanks :)

:donut: Good morning, Kukesa! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

8. Good morning!

How could that happen in NH? Obama was just there! :( They are messing up our solid blue portion of the map up here.



:hi: :bounce: <---(something seems to be wrong with lmd's bounce at the moment)

and a Happy Birthday to you! :party:

[phrigndumass]

10. LMD's bounce looks fine to me :)

:bounce: for Lil Math Dude :D

Thanks for your birthday wishes :D (in case anyone wants to know, I'm 44 -- just like Obama)

New Hampshire seems to be the party pooper in New England. Hope it turns around soon!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

18. Happy Birthday, P-Man!

Nice trend we're seeing develop here. I think there's a lot of chaff in the radar, obscuring the Obamers coming within striking range....(ahem. Sorry about that!)

I think that between the economy and the GOP ticket, all we have to fear is martial law or an obscene theft of votes, neither of which are impossible.

[phrigndumass]

20. Thank you :)

It is also just as probable that there might not be an election at all :crazy: (yes, there will be an election)

Agreed about the chaff. Two polls for Iowa conducted one day apart, one shows it tied and the other shows Obama leading by 11. That's a difference of 160,000 votes in Iowa right there.

:hi:

[Sugarcoated]

9. phrigndumass

What do you think of the Florida polling when Barr and Nadar are included? They went over this last night on CNN - the poll where it was tied 48-48, with the other candidates included it then becomes Obama48 McGaff 43

I love the daily thread every morning btw!

[phrigndumass]

12. I would trust the poll with all the candidates more than the head-to-head poll

It's still a bit early for third party candidates' poll numbers to be reflected with statistical accuracy in the state polls, but since all their names will be on the ballot, the poll question with all their names will be the one to track.

Thanks btw!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[demokatgurrl]

11. Did you put this together? If not, is there a link?

I want to send it to people but not necessarily the whole thread. Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

13. Yes, I put this together. You have my permission to use any part of it :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

14. Back to bed kick

:kick: Happy Friday!

[phrigndumass]

25. .

:P

[SoxFan]

15. ARG=Crap

They don't actually poll anyone. I'm convinced of that. They wait for Ras or Zog to leak numbers, tweak them by a point or two, and act like they came up with something big.

ARG operates out of a tiny second floor office in downtown Manchester. There is no call center. The only political work they do is off-the-books work that is used to spin the local political press. Anyone who takes this outfit seriously is not playing with a full deck.

[phrigndumass]

21. Is it possible that they contract with a call center to make the calls?

Interesting to know, thanks BlueDog

:hi:

[bleever]

16. And it's just going to get better.

Thanks, as always!

[phrigndumass]

22. Seven weeks to go and counting :)

And we thought the wait for the Pennsylvania primary was long ...

:hi:

[grantcart]

17. Indiana nudges closer and closer to a miracle

[phrigndumass]

23. And then Rasmussen and ARG nudges it away

Both polled Indiana and released their polls today, and McCain leads in both. Still within the margin of error, though!

:hi:

[mvd]

19. Good work again

One suggestion: show the Strategic Vision polls, but don't factor them into your projections. They are an obvious arm of the RW.

[phrigndumass]

24. Thanks mvd :)

I have the ability to zero out a poll's strength, and I have been doing that with a few SV polls. Sometimes it takes a couple days to have comparable polls for the same time period to catch these, though.

:hi:

[Demeter]

26. I Found the Perfect Birthday Gift for the Poll-Gifted P-Man!

http://allspinzone.com/wp/2008/09/18/mccain-going-south/


Enjoy!

[phrigndumass]

27. That's incompetence you can believe in! LOL

Loved it!

McCain will definitely need to shore up his base again. The Southern republicans seem to love it when it gets negative, so McCain will probably play teh Obama is a scary black Muslim with teh terraist ties card. They may need to bring out their October Surprise sooner, too, which will give us more time to squelch it.

:hi:

[Demeter]

28. All Their Surprises Seem to Be Pie In Their Own Faces

I keep waiting for McCain to say "No mas!" (someday I'm going to look up all the ASCII codes for foreign alphabets).

How can one tawdry, trumped up Rovian trick beat the Real-time events? And besides, we haven't really gotten going on the Keating 5 and the Savings and Loan wipeout yet! I can't wait for that one.

[phrigndumass]

29. I can't wait for that one either!

I'll bet they already have the ads ready to air. :D

[Captiosus]

30. Virginia...

Probably will wobble back and forth, but I still think it's going to go to Obama and Warner.

The last four years, we've seen a lot of growth in the three major metropolitan areas (Richmond, Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads), but stagnant growth in the rural areas. I'm fairly certain that the growth will exceed the 5% difference Virginia had in the 2004 Presidential election.

As people point out in poll threads, phone polls don't take into account folks who only use cell phones. Of all of my friends, only two others beside myself even have landlines, the rest have gone cell phone only. They're all voting democratic this year, but only three of us would ever get polled.

I wouldn't count Virginia out by a long shot.
I have a feeling this state is going to surprise everyone when the official results come in.

[phrigndumass]

35. Agreed :)

If Obama has any poll lead nationally on November 3rd (and he will), he'll win Virginia on November 4th. Only if he trails in all of them will he lose Virginia. That's not a rule of thumb, but it seems to be how Virginia has been trending all year, in line with the national polls.

:hi:

[HughBeaumont]

31. Goddamned fucking DUMBASS Ohioans.

You dumb sons of bitches.

Republican economic policy shipped most of your manufacturing jobs either overseas or to cheaper Southern pastures. The state's a dying equivalent of an abandoned building, your roads suck, your public transportation sucks, your schools are terrible . . . and yet, beyond viable comprehension, you all STILL cannot kick the Republican glass pipe.

If my moron fucking state puts McClown in office through theft or voluntary dumbassedness, I will cease voting, cease caring and laugh as this state sinks into an economic abyss and people lose their jobs.

COME on, idiots! GOD this state pisses me off to no end, as do other red states that are losing jobs left and right but still steadfastly inhale that good Republican crack and just cannot figure out why everything's being boarded up around them and they have no money.

[phrigndumass]

32. "I'll take the povertee, as long as nobody cain't get no aborshens"

"and as long as the pollytishens keep using my Jesus buzz werds and scarin me"

:thumbsup:

[Demeter]

33. Remember, It Took Decades To Turn NH Blue

When I moved to NH in 1976, it was the home of John Birch and likely to stay that way forever, as it had always been sneering at the "liberals" in NY and Massachusetts and other, more civilized places.

By the time I left in 1996, NH was on the verge of Democratic Governor, House, Senate, and State!

All it took was a complete collapse of the local economy when Digital Equipment Corp went belly up, and houses couldn't sell for 10 years....

(I'd like to think I had something to do with it, but I was having babies and a divorce, so that's not likely).

So, look upon this as the autumn of the political cycle, when the weeds die, the soil rests, the water table replenishes, and the seeds await the warmth of spring. Change is coming. And eventually, it will be for the better.

And if you can't wait, there's always bluer places to go!

[Demeter]

34. Duplicate post, sorry

stupid yahoo!