Top 10 Senate seats most likely to switch party (9 of 10 are Republican)

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Friday Senate Line: Republicans' Happy Talk

....As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch party control in the fall. Agree or disagree with our picks or the order in which we ranked them?....

(NOTE: Numbers 10-6 are Mississippi; Louisiana, the only Dem seat; North Carolina; Minnesota; Oregon.)

5. Alaska (R): Palin's presence at the top of the ticket is almost certain to boost Sen. Ted Stevens's chances at re-election. But, given the dire political straits in which Stevens finds himself, Palin's popularity may not even be enough to drag him across the finish line. Polling shows Stevens roughly deadlocked with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) but much hinges on the Republican incumbent's federal trial on corruption charges that begins next week. If Stevens is found guilty, his political career is over. (Previous ranking: 3)

4. New Hampshire (R): Sen. John Sununu (R) has two things going for him: he is a better candidate than former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) and he has significantly more money to spend than his Democratic challenger. He has one major thing working against him: there has been exactly one public poll in the last 18 months that showed the Sununu ahead of Shaheen. Both national party committees are engaged on television in the Granite State and it looks like the race at the top of the ticket will be competitive as well. It's still an uphill climb for Sununu. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Colorado (R): The last two polls conducted in the race -- one by a Democratic firm, the other by a Republican outfit -- have Rep. Mark Udall (D) ahead of former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) by 11 points and one point. Average them out and you get a six-point edge for Udall, which seems about right. The data from the presidential race shows Obama running surprisingly strong in the state -- strong evidence that the much-debated demographic trends towards Democrats are real. (Previous ranking: 5)

2. New Mexico (R): Bowing to political reality, the NRSC pulled their ad buy out of the Land of Enchantment recently, leaving Rep. Steve Pearce (R) to fend for himself against Rep. Tom Udall (D). Now Pearce is up with an ad that alleges Udall supports tax increases on "just about anything that moves" and labels the Democratic Congressman "breathtakingly liberal." Does anyone else smell the scent of desperation? (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Virginia (R): Little known fact -- there was a televised debate between former Governors Mark Warner (D) and Jim Gilmore (R) on Thursday. Who knew? (Sorry. There's only so many ways to say this race is over.) (Previous ranking: 1)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/friday_senate_line_9.html#more

[Jennicut]

1. Virgina, Colorado and NM look good.

Hopefully we will get more than Virgina.

[cali]

2. We will almost certainly get more than VA

NH won't be that close and neither will NM. I think we'll also pick up NM, AK and CO. I'm less convinced about MN. And Landrieu is well ahead in LA.