WTF??? McCain GAINS in Hotline tracker???

[regnaD kciN]

Obama up by 4 yesterday, only by 1 today.

:wtf:

[LiberadorHugo]

1. Thank you very much for your concern

Obama 49
McSame 42

http://www.dailykos.com/ :-)

[regnaD kciN]

3. I'm only telling you the news...

..and, yes, I know that dKos's poll has Obama up by 7. That's why I'm so surprised by this result. It would imply that McCain's numbers over Obama's were around 9 percent better on Thursday than on Monday. And that just doesn't make any sense at all.

[LiberadorHugo]

5. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Gallup has to say...

Rass had them tied, but I don't think the internals there are trustworthy.

[regnaD kciN]

7. Rasmussen just upped the percentage of Republicans by 5%...

...because, of course, a stock-market crash on the Republicans' watch is just the thing to make people want to go out and vote to keep them in power. :eyes:

I'm wondering if Diego/Hotline did something similar. I could have seen Obama's lead start to slip tomorrow, if the meme on tonight's news was "Hooray! President Bush saved the economy" :crazy: , plus the usual weekend problems for Obama's polls. But I don't see why there would have been such a dramatic shift to McCain yesterday.

[WCGreen]

12. No, the spin is already that this has to play out before it ca be judged

one way or another.

There is heated arguements going on over at CNBC with more than half of the commentators saying it is a drastic but ultimately bad idea...

[regnaD kciN]

16. I'm hoping the Democrats can get the balls...

...to insist that this bill not be just a massive taxpayer giveaway to the wealthy. Of course, they'll have to do it in the House, since Holy Joe holds the deciding vote in the Senate. :-(

[WCGreen]

19. They need to insist on reforms before the bail out occurs...

Ortherwise the much needed reforms of the regulatory process will never materialize.

[leftynyc]

15. Obama +5 in Gallup

Article says he had a very good Thursday.

[regnaD kciN]

20. Indeed...which is why I asked below...

...how one polling firm can report "one of the best days" for Obama, while the other has McCain picking up around nine points on that very same day (versus the Monday result that fell out of both polls today).

It just doesn't make sense.

[musicblind]

14. I don't think the OPster sounded concered.

He sounded confused and wondering what the hell was wrong with the polling company.

Not everyone who posts unfortunate or contrary news is a concern troll.

[Venceremos]

2. I ignore polls

Especially this year, you can get whiplash from watching them.

[WI_DEM]

4. that would be weird. It would indicte McCain had a good day yesterday

which is hard to believe.

[abburdlen]

11. the anti-Spain voting block

is HUGH!!1!

And now McCain has that locked up with his tough talk against our NATO ally.

[regnaD kciN]

17. Yep...

...and in a show of American resolve against the Olive-Oil-Eating Surrender Monkeys, seducers throughout the U.S. will be renaming "Spanish Fly" as "Teenage Daughters Of Alaskan Fundamentalist Governors Fly."

:evilgrin:

[Abacus]

6. What are the numbers?

So I can update my tally. Or better yet, where are you finding the numbers?

[regnaD kciN]

8. O 45% - M 44%...

...I got it from a blurb over at TPM.

[Abacus]

9. Thanks! /nt

[regnaD kciN]

10. P.S.: Obama up 49% - 44% in new Gallup...

Now, that seems to make a lot more sense.

Further addendum: Gallup says that Obama had "one of his best nights" on Thursday. So how come D/H had McCain gaining 9 points on Thursday over Monday? I know the poll is being funded by one of the world's biggest makers of alcoholic beverages...do you think they were sampling their product instead of the voters?

[gcomeau]

13. Sigh.

It makes me want to bang my head on my desk every time I see someone freak out about a single data point on a single day on a single poll.

Statistical. Fluctuation.

If it doesn't continue into a long term trend it's completely meaningless. They happened to call a few extra McCain backers while randomly dialing phone numbers last night. Whoopdeedo.

[Godhumor]

18. My guess is, as a new poll, Hotline corrected some weights

This doesn't necessarily reflect a bad day for Obama, but the new pollster tweaking things a bit for better accuracy (However they measure that).

[regnaD kciN]

22. Could be the case...

If I recall, since they started releasing their results, they have generally been several points more favorable to Obama than Gallup or Rasmussen. Maybe this is an attempt to rebalance their survey (in a way that, ironically, takes them 4 points further toward McCain than Gallup). :shrug:

[Godhumor]

23. Well yeah, it's the rule of three

First you over-estimate then you under-estimate then you hit it.

[mvd]

24. That would be my guess

No way McCain outpolled Obama yesterday.

[wowimthere]

21. My guess is... the poll results are as stupid as the rest of the other polls

Do not believe the hype. As soon as they have you believing that the candidates are close the better it is for McCain. This race is not close. Tied creates perception.