SUSA IA: Obama 54, McLame 43

[MadBadger]

That Big Ten poll is definitely an outlier (though I love my school anyway, even with a shitty poll).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3762a738-bf31-416c-81cd-d35599c13107

[SeeHopeWin]

1. YES WE CAN!

[mohc]

2. What I would like to know

This is about a 12 point net swing from Iowa in 2004. I realize Obama's time spent there during the primary had a big impact, but why are we not seeing a similar swing nationwide?

[Debi]

3. We have to be careful - In Oct 2004 Kerry had a 3 pt lead in the polls & 11 pt lead in early voting

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting

The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush.

"Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters."

October 31, 2004

+++++++++++

He lost Iowa by around 10,000 votes (not accurate but a round-about number).

We can't look at a poll five weeks out and claim the state is 'solid blue'.

[MattNC]

4. McCain

gave the middle finger to the Iowa Caucuses in his two presidential runs. doesn't help him.