Go Blue! by E.J. Dionne, Jr.-Why Michigan is going to be this year's Florida

[babylonsister]

Go Blue! by E.J. Dionne, Jr.
Why Michigan is going to be this year's Florida.
Post Date Thursday, September 19, 2008



GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.--If he carries Michigan, many routes to victory are open for Barack Obama. Without Michigan, he's got a big problem.

This state, which was living with economic catastrophe long before this week's Wall Street meltdown, could be to this election what Ohio was in 2004 and Florida was in 2000.

And voters here are so angry--about unemployment measured at 9 percent and some of the country's highest rates of foreclosures and outbound one-way U-Haul rentals--that no one is certain where they will lash out.

"What's challenging about Michigan is that they've suffered this economy in its worst form," said Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who has studied the state for years. "They blame the Democratic governor and the Democratic Party, and the Republican president and the Republican Party, and an elite they believe sold out their state."

It's no wonder, then, that John McCain and Sarah Palin held their first joint town hall meeting in this solidly Republican city on Wednesday, or that McCain played his newly discovered populist tune during a visit earlier in the day at a General Motors plant. "We are not going to leave the workers here in Michigan hung out to dry," McCain said, "while we give billions in taxpayer dollars to Wall Street."

It's also no wonder that Detroit, Grand Rapids and Flint were three of the top five media markets nationally for the number of political advertisements in the week following the party conventions, according to the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. Grand Rapids alone saw 1,197 of them.

Michigan matters hugely because to assemble an Electoral College victory, Obama must hold the states carried by John Kerry four years ago, and this is the most vulnerable of the big Kerry states. "Michigan," says Greenberg, "is the key to the whole map."

more...

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=3d50c50e-5c93-4cd1-a00a-c798270a0214

[CitizenPatriot]

1. and it's no wonder the union workers

in Lake Orion chanted to McCain as he left their place of business: "OBAMA 08 OBAMA 08"

:-)

What I would have paid to see that in person!

Go Blue!

[blondeatlast]

2. Michigan may literally become a battleground state considering the dirty tricks the republicans are

already gearing up there to suppress voting.

They are already kicking up the dirty tricks in Michigan.

[FVZA_Colonel]

22. But if reports are correct, the Obama campaign isn't letting this go unchallenged.

They have filed a lawsuit to stop that new "your house was foreclosed, you can't vote" strategy of the Repukes.

[GreenEyedLefty]

3. At the local Democratic club meeting last night...

(edited for spelling)

a woman from the Oakland County Democratic party told us that they sold Obama yardsigns, bumper stickers and other merchandise at Arts, Beats and Eats in Pontiac a few weekends ago. They had to restock several times and still sold out. The McCain tent a block over couldn't give their things away.

There's something going on around here, and it's under the radar screen of the pollsters and the MSM. "Change" is in the air. REAL change...

[babylonsister]

5. That is really good to read-thank you! nt

[featherman]

4. I see no reason to worry about Michigan voting Republican for the first time

since 1984. Goodness gracious, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore and Kerry all carried Michigan. Like a few other states (PA, WI) it may be close and, with OH, PA and WI, is the GOP's only possible path to victory.

MI polling has been strong for Obama so far: about a +3.5 according to 538.com

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[FVZA_Colonel]

23. I thought more and more estimates put them higher then that.

But still, a 3.5% lead is damn nice.

[olkaz]

6. I hope Michigan goes for Obama, but you will never hear me say "Go Blue"

Rich Rod is scum.

[babylonsister]

8. Who is Rich Rod?

:shrug:

[RollWithIt]

9. The new Michigan University football coach.... also know as "Dick Rod" by Buckeye Nation

It's a football rivalry thing, Michigan could have hired Jesus to be their coach and we Ohio State Buckeyes would still hope he went 0-12 and cried on the sidelines. :-)

PS: Over 1720 days since the rabid little "wolverines" beat Ohio State.

[babylonsister]

10. Ha! Gotcha; football rivalries are way up there. nt

[Blondiegrrl]

15. He fucked over WVU bigtime.

I don't blame the guy for leaving the job -- that's his prerogative -- but the rat bastard then refused to pay back the money he owes for breaking his contract.

[Cha]

18. You football guys

are a crackup! :rofl:

[knitter4democracy]

12. Yeah. Go green!!

Go white!

[olkaz]

19. It's actually Orange and Blue for me, but I definitely don't hold ANY ill will against Sparty

Annnnnd Ann Arbor is a whore.

[knitter4democracy]

24. Well, I do like me some Broncos, too.

WMU games are tons of fun, and the more I take classes at Western, the more impressed I am with that place. Good school.

[olkaz]

25. I was actually talkiing about the University of Illinois :)

But I don't have beef with Western either (unless they beat us this season in Detroit!).

[TheModernTerrorist]

20. I hear that!

Green and White all the way B-)

[Unsane]

7. Thank God for Detroit.

GOTV

[DCBob]

11. Totally agree. This year whoever wins Michigan wins the election.

However, Obama should win Michigan and the election but McCain will not give it up easily. It will be a battle.

[knitter4democracy]

13. It's going to be interesting to see how our demographics are doing.

It used to be that if you won Detroit and a few other places, you won the state (Kerry only won four counties in 2004, for example, two of which were in the Detroit area). With the massive population drain, I'm not entirely certain that's true. I will say that I'm seeing more Obama signs and stickers than McCain ones, even in really Republican areas (even saw some Hoogendyk, the totally batshit crazy Republican running against Sen. Levin this time, signs yesterday--freaky). It's hard to know how our demographics change will play out.

[DCBob]

14. This is why Michigan is the key:

-- If Obama wins MI, he likely wins at least PA, IA, NM & CO (victory)
-- If Obama loses MI, he could still win PA, IA, NM & CO but he will need one of the other big battlegorund states like FL or OH which seems unlikley if he losses MI.

Michigan is a must win.

[terip64]

16. I am volunteering for he campaign in Jackson, MI, the birth place of the republican party...

and even though this place can be scary (I grew up in New Haven, CT and have lived here since '99) I see that the Obama campaign is very organized and there are a lot of us working hard. We know how important MI is and I believe that we will win here.

[jimlup]

17. Michigan has changed poll requirement laws

The repuklian legislator here has changed the ID requirement to vote. Now a picture ID is required. This will cause some problems and many people are unsure and unaware of this new requirement. Evidence is that this will cost Obama several thousand votes. We'll need to care this state by more than Kerry did to have insurance against the repuklian dirty tricks.

But we've got Michigan covered. We'll work like crazy if needed but we've got Michigan!

[FVZA_Colonel]

21. Isn't Obama polling rather well in Michigan?

I'd thought that as things took a down-turn and Obama came out in force, showing he was the right leader for this time, that his numbers improved quite a bit.