My prediction: McCain is going to f*ck up, and f*ck up BIG in the first debate

[zulchzulu]

Just looking at him in recent speeches and with a disastrous week like he has had, he is going to come into the debate as an angry old man who will possibly blow up off the handle and look absolutely red-faced with anger. If Barack plays his cards right, McCain might get so flustered that he actually cusses.

He's going to look short, stiff, miffed and will have more than a gaffe or two. All Barack has to do is be reasonable, friendly, smile when necessary and calm when being attacked by McCain and he will come back with more than a couple zingers that will set McCain off.

It will possibly be a performance by McCain that even the most stuanch Repig yesman won't be able to defend with any level of intellectual honesty.

Info on debates:

September 26, 2008: Presidential debate with foreign policy focus, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS

October 2, 2008: Vice Presidential debate, Washington University, St. Louis, MO

October 7, 2008: Presidential debate in a town hall format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN

October 15, 2008: Presidential debate with domestic policy focus, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Each debate will begin at 9pm eastern, 6pm pacific time and last for 90 minutes. They will be aired on every major broadcast network such as CBS, NBC, ABC, and FOX. They will also be aired on cable outlets such as Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, and many others.

http://www.youdecide2008.com/2007/06/13/full-2008-debate-schedule-from-dnc-and-gop/

[BattyDem]

1. Obama only has to push ONE of McCain's buttons ...

and the old guy is going to lose it!

[Essene]

6. Right: mccain gets upset very easily when his integrity is challenged... because he feels entitled

to be treated as an american hero.

A zippy early jab at his integrity and honesty oughta bait him into dirt slinging.

Obama needs Mccain to be a nasty old man for the entire debate, while Obama can just keep talking about integrity and honesty without being too nasty himself.

[zulchzulu]

12. Like a good boxing match, a quick hard jab on the chin to get him dizzy...

...which could be something about how he trusted George Bush from the start and perhaps throw the word "honor" in there for good measure.

Go to the heart of his "strength".

McCane will do several inaapropriate smiles and a creepy giggle or two than might set him off into Goofyville.

[Blue_Roses]

62. yep...that's it. Just push one button and McCain will explode, especially if his poll numbers are

down that day.

[Clio the Leo]

2. dont count him out yet........

put me in the cautiously optimistic camp but I spent time earlier tonight watching his debates from January and I'd suggest everyone do the same .... he is a capable debater .... and unless his skills have slipped TREMENDOUSLY in the last seven months, McCain will do MUCH better in the debates than he's been doing in his speeches this week.

Or maybe not.

[MadMaddie]

8. Obama has Biden there to coach him on McCains buttons

Obama will hit the right button it's just a matter of when.

We should never underestimate McCain but he is tired now, he looks worse every day. Cognitively, I think he is exhausted, his age, his war injuries are taking their toll.

The Debates will be very important especially with all of the crises occurring between now and the debate, McCain will never be able to keep up.

[Clio the Leo]

14. yeah, I think fatigue could play a factor.......

..... it's the only explanation for McCain's behaviour as of late .. I mean as much as we like to kid, I dont think he's THAT inept.

Heck, i'm tired and I haven't even flown to 57 states. :)

(no I'm not ..... this is fun!!! woohoo!)

[PatSeg]

43. Plus medication

He obviously isn't the healthiest person on the planet and I'm quite sure he takes more than his fair share of prescription drugs.

[knixphan]

49. Plus insanity...

[beac]

16. I think exhaustion will be a BIG factor with McCain.

Remember that back in January, he wasn't keeping the kind of schedule he is now. He was well-rested then and he won't be when he faces Obama-- unless they take him off the campaign trail for several days beforehand, which would look odd and cause them problems of another sort.

[CarbonDate]

24. Also, Obama comes across much differently in debates....

...than he does in speeches. His verbal pauses are going to be a liability, unless he's been working on them.

[Clio the Leo]

28. lol, why am I suddenly getting this mental image of Barack and Joe doing a training montage...

... Rocky style.

[demwing]

46. I think its time for a montage...Sing it with me...

Risin up
straight to the top
had the guts got the glory
went the distance now I'm not gonna stop
just a man and his will to survive

It's the eye of the tiger
its the cream of the fight
risin up to the challenge of our rivals
and the last known survivor stalks his prey in the night
and he's watching us all with the eye...


...of the tiger

[treestar]

59. Thinking about that, I'm not sure

The LIV and the slower thinker would have time to follow his arguments/words and could stay sucked in by the sonorous voice. It protects him from the glib/no substance charge.

I read an article a few weeks ago in my local paper claiming Obama's eloquence was a liability and that people "identified" more with McSame's "honest struggles!" So Obama having some "honest struggles" might not be a bad thing if that is correct.

[Raschel]

34. 8 months is like five years in McCain years!

You thought he was a good debater in January? Heck, he's aged about five years since then!

Plus, I don't think he's a good debater. I think he's just good at lying and insults.

[TheBigotBasher]

54. Romney was close to setting him going during the debates

when he questioned him on his flip flops on torture. McMansion got angry and all "Do you know I am a POW" on him. He has now chnaged his stance again.

Sometimes, I think McMansion changes his stances because he cannot remember what he said and not simply out political expediency. Maybe I am too kind.

[Cosmocat]

56. People are setting themselves up to be disappointed ...

1) they are going to shut him down for a few days before the debates, no traveling, lock him up in one his houses, shoot him up with vitamins and make sure he gets his 10 hours of sleep, while totally firewalling him from the real world.

2) As you noted, it won't be his first rodeo. Rested and handled, he will do what he does, being all assertive and spouting talking points.

3) ALSO, people are just flat delusional if they think the media won't snap back to its defau;lt position and prop up the R. Especially if BO is polling ahead. 2000 and 2004, who "won" those debates, and who did the media SAY "won" the debates.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I am eagerly anticipating these debates...

Do you know if they get to speak directly to one another?

I'm hoping they do!

[zulchzulu]

5. 1st is podium, 2nd is town hall and 3rd is at a table

The VP debate is podium style... which is the second debate.

[Essene]

4. Obama must pick his punches CAREFULLY

Remember, a lot of the population is swayed by simplistic language about socialism, big government, spending, etc.

[Cronus Protagonist]

7. He'll be drugged, bugged and prompted

And let's not lower expectations so that all he has to do is make it through without falling over to "win" the debate.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. The first debate is tailored made for McCain.

With the subjects mostly being about foreign policy, I doubt the economy gets much mention. That's where McCain is his strongest.

Not saying he'll have a good night, just throwing that out there.

[zulchzulu]

17. Obama could set him off with his gaffes about mixing up Sunni and Shiites

Perhaps throw in a few other jabs to set him off. Talk about the costs of the wars and how it directly affects the economy. Switch the debate to the economy and keep pivoting there since Bush/McCain foreign policy costs are directly responsible for a lot of lost money.

He'll stumble. He'll explode. He'll whine that the debate should be about foreign policy. Obama could pivot back by saying that a war that cost $5,000 a second with all the other failures affects the economy...

Obama has several of McCain's misstatements to hit him with. He could also use Patraeus' recent statements about how the word "victory" is inappropriate for the Iraq war.

People THINK McCain is Mr. Foreign Policy. If Obama can skewer that notion pretty quickly into the debate, McCain will just get careless and forgetful.

My take on it anyway...

[gravity]

18. McCain is only perceived strong on foreign policy

his knowledge of the subject is rather weak, and he could get tripped up in the debatrs

[Egnever]

36. Bingo!

I am constantly amazed he gets away with the strong on foreign policy thing. His thinking is extremely shallow.

[nc4bo]

23. But but but Czechoslovakia and USSR are part of the axis of Atlas Shrugged, right? nt

[Phredicles]

27. And Spain is part of Latin America;

I mean, they all talk Mexican, right?

[BadgerKid]

10. Link to U.Miss debate page

http://www.olemiss.edu/debate/

Looks like they will have live streaming!

[samuraiguppy]

11. this is going to be GOOD nt

[Shine]

13. We're hosting a presidential debate dinner party for 35 friends at our house.

I'll make a bunch of chili, cornbread, and salad and we'll have a stimulating evening of politics and conversation as we watch the candidates battle it out.

Can't wait! :woohoo:

[mrreowwr_kittty]

15. I'm hoping for a fullblown Macaca moment. nt

[Imagevision]

19. McCain can be miked (like Bush was) and surprise everyone.

If McCain camp can send bogus voter cards to Ohio last week and simply go oops, don't kid yourself, we must be vigilant with what has the possibility of happening!

[backscatter712]

22. Even if McCain has the little box on his back...

Obama can still slyly bait him until he loses his temper.

[Imagevision]

20. McCain can be miked (like Bush was) and surprise everyone.

If McCain camp can send bogus voter cards to Ohio last week and simply go oops, don't kid yourself, we must be vigilant with what has the possibility of happening!

[regnaD kciN]

32. Yes, I think we got the point...

:eyes:

[backscatter712]

21. I look forward to Obama's verbal jiu-jitsu...

During the primaries, Obama showed a rather entertaining talent for causing his opponent's attacks to boomerang...

[NYC_SKP]

25. Did you mean, "Oboomerang"?

I love his political jiu-jitsu, look forward to the verbal form...

[Historic NY]

26. Ask him where Yugoslavia is?

[SDJay]

29. He should just ask McCrap

to define 'Spain.' That should get him fuming right off the bat.

[saltpoint]

30. You know what, I think you're spot on with McCain and his famous

temper.

He's spent at least 8 years supporting a man whose administration has tried to subvert the letter and spirit of the U.S. Constitution and real, real soon here he'll be debating an expert in Constitutional law.

It don't git much better'n that in politics.

[regnaD kciN]

31. I hope you're right...

...because Friday's debate is McCain's best (and possibly last) chance to recapture the narrative of the debate with an hour-long surge-o-rama, pushing the notion that his policies have brought "victory" in Iraq. :eyes: If he muffs this golden opportunity, he might not even be able to pin his hopes on Diebold.

[rufus dog]

33. I think we will get a very big clue of Obama's plan this weekend

Look for ads attacking McCain and the aggressive tone seen in the past week to tip off if Obama/Biden are going for the knockout early. This will keep camp McCain working hard up to the debate which increases the potential for McCain to have a major gaffe or blowup on Friday.

[Raschel]

35. Will McCain use POW for defense or attack?

People have had it up to here with his mention of POW for every excuse and every attack.

He really can't think that nobody notices, can he?

[writes3000]

37. I bet early on McCain tries to imply that Obama has been afraid to debate him.

Refusing the town halls, etc.

[TheKentuckian]

38. This is a chance to break out some

I think we all know Obama has a better handle on all the issues, including foreign policy. In fact this might be the biggest differential but is perceived as a McCain overwhelming advantage.

I agree with the earlier poster, that McShame will attempt to make this a Surge-A-Thon. If Obama can win this one, it will melt the concerns.

[CK_John]

39. Palin will show up friday night for the debate, n/t

[joop]

40. I want to see him lose his temper for real

and then pull a full on Stockdale later (of course Stockdale was a relative young pup at 69 when he was running for veep)

That's my dream.

[Ramius]

41. Oh, we wish.... generalities... unchallenged...

I hate to say it... but have you EVER seen a debate where someone REALLY was called on their bullshit... from either side???

And October second being the "only" Town Hall format?

[and-justice-for-all]

42. 6 Days!!!

WooHoo!! Obama is going to fuck McInsane up.

Biden and Falin, I almost feel sorry for the wench....almost.

They better screen them, mainly McInsane for any type of receiver he might have. I do not trust those asshats one bit.

I would assume these will also be on CSPAN?

[GoesTo11]

44. Wishful thinking?

Obama surely knows more, thinks better and speaks better than McCain. But presidential debates are apparently won or lost on likability, one liners, and whether one is on attack or defense regardless of the credibility of one's statements. McCain will do just fine because the 90 second format allows shallow, memorized or wired talking points. McCain will happily deliver a "There you go again" type line and that's what will get looped. I remember after every single Bush-Gore and Bush-Kerry debate thinking how badly Bush had acquitted himself, only to read in the morning that he "won". I am very leery of raising expectations for Obama to anything other than holding his own. If this were a court battle or a formal debate like with debate teams, it wouldn't be a contest, but this is just Survivor reality TV for Americans at large.

[Raschel]

63. Nobody likes McCain

If McCain's counting on likability to win the debates, he's REALLY screwed. Nobody likes McCain they're voting for him because they don't like(/fear etc...) Obama.

[BrainStorm]

45. So, if you're wrong, can we get our money back?

I need a new air filter.

[DFW]

47. My prediction: no he won't

Unfortunately.

He'll be coached, coached again, and coached once more--to the point where he'll
act as programmed as any robot, and say what he is told to say, no more, no less.
He'll get coached on his facial expressions, his tone of voice, his temper, when
to look serious, when to smile, and when to inhale or exhale. They might as well
put up a DVD, and run the selected video clip at the appropriate time. You will
see as much spontaneity from McCain as you would from a common garden slug.

I hope you're right, and I'm wrong.

[bridgit]

48. Reasonable...

:thumbsup:

[lamp_shade]

50. Remember the LOW expectations for him at the Saddleback forum?

Remember how he surprised the MSM? Remember how impressed they were with his short quick concise responses? versus Obama's detailed answers? We must keep this in mind. Let's not get cocky, okay?

[renie408]

51. Bingo. His handlers will have done everything possible to get him to that debate

prepared, rested, medicated, propped up....WHATEVER...so that he will not stumble around like he has this past week. There won't be any 'FEC' gaffes at the debate.

A girl can dream, though....

[Hope And Change]

52. K & R!

[Ikonoklast]

53. I just want him to be boring, as he usually is

Droning on and on and on and on....

People will be reminded of airless windowless classrooms in May with a history teacher that should have retired ten years ago, but still rambles on because he doesn't have anything else to do with his life.

And to the teachers that read this, this doesn't pertain to you, but I'm sure you know a teacher just like that.

I know I had one. We called him 'Sleepy Smith'. He was a walking cure for insomnia.

[Kdillard]

55. Well we can hope but I doubt it. My expectation is that

whatever McCain does will be lauded by the media unless he literally falls asleep during the debates. McCain will also have been prepared beyond belief for this debate by his handlers. Obama needs to get himself rested and he must be prepared with quick short answers to get his point across and he must have a quick retort to any McCain nonesense. I have never felt the debate format was Obama's strong suit but I will be more than happy to eat my words if he does well and the media actually reports that he did well. Obama needs to be as sharp as he was during the service forum and then kick it up a notch imo to even the playing field for this debate.

[freespirit5]

57. With McSame, theres no "there" there

nt

[ecstatic]

58. Depends on if he takes his meds that morning. I saw McShame on the View

and he kept a pretty cool head as he was challenged. He stayed on script and kept spouting his lies. Cindy got more angry than he did. We'll see though...

[Coexist]

60. I find it interesting that the topic is foreign policy first

the economy was supposed to be first - and the initial debate tends to be the most watched.

I'm sure Obama has a reason behind the switch (I think I read somewhere that he agreed to it), his campaign is genius, so I'm not worried.

But McCain is showing signs of strain - he will warm to his topic and get his little zingers in, but Obama always finishes very strong in debates, so I am guessing I will enjoy the second half better than the first.

[Frumious B]

61. Stick him in front of a camera for any length of time and a huge gaffe is inevitable.

The only question is whether or not he gets called on it or if the let it slide as they did with Bush in the 2004 debates.

[formernaderite]

64. let's not get carried away

seriously. Mccain has been at this for years. He will give short answers, full of soundbytes. Obama's job is to combat those answers with his own shortened consise constructs. The debate will be won by addressing the issues. To pretend that McCain doesn't do well in debates is naieve. Obama is more eloquent, but he has to adapt his style to debate format.
Obama will win on the issues.

[iiibbb]

65. I'd rather have him do it on the 3rd debate.

[zulchzulu]

66. McCain continues to prove he's clueless on the economic situation...

...which Obama WILL tie to the foreign policy strategies that are inherent and tied together...

[Top Cat]

67. When Obama ties the economy with the wasteful spending on the Iraq war

McCain will blow a major gasket and the fact that he voted with Bush 90% of the time. He will come unglued.

[bullwinkle428]

68. You mean like a Gerald Ford / "Poland is not part of the Eastern Bloc"

kind of gaffe?

Has America gotten too dumb to care about a mistake of even that magnitude?

[sniffa]

69. But, will it matter?

I know it's a different time, but I remember Kerry absolutely slaughtering Bush in the first debate (it was really bad) and beating him bad in the other two, and....

:shrug:

I have no doubt Obama will kick his fucking ass, and the atmosphere seems favorable (ie: a debate win, or even massacre will be taken in by the masses), so I'd love to think it will make a difference.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

70. I was thinking that Obama mentioning the S&L debacle might hit

McKeating5 close enough to home to induce some hilarious high jinx.
}(

[faithfulcitizen]

71. McCain was awful in that 60 minutes interview. That said, he was nasty & effective in the R debates.

[curious one]

72. I just want to see him blow off his top or refuse to answer.

[amborin]

73. DEMS NEED

to have a plan in place

starting immediately during the debates

we need to start SHAPING public perceptions of the debate

who won, etc....

and---in the unlikely event our guy should make some misstatement, we need a plan for that also

we need to be PROACTIVE