Saturday Morning Data Dump – 9/20

[phrigndumass]

(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a weekly (or whenever the mood strikes me) summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from national poll crosstabs (not the daily trackers). When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Obama trailing McCain by 1.2%, or 47.3% to 48.4% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 0.1% for Obama (down from 0.8%). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 0.4% for Obama (down from 1.3%), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 0.7% (down from 1.7%) nationwide.

The reason these demographic percentages change is that we are projecting an increase in voter turnout this year among young people, females, African-Americans and Latinos. The pollsters haven’t worked these demographic increases into their polling methodology yet, but they will (hopefully) when voter registration deadlines have passed next month.


GENDER CROSSTABS


The women’s vote is trending higher at a faster rate for Obama, yet it is also rising for McCain at a slower pace. The male vote is currently opening a wider gap for McCain, but Obama’s take is beginning to increase.











ETHNICITY CROSSTABS


Obama is winning just below 40% of the white vote in polls, while McCain is winning almost 55%. The number to watch for Obama in this demographic is 40%. If he is able to sustain polling of 40% among white voters, then voting among other ethnic groups will put him over the top in the popular vote in November.














AGE CROSSTABS


Obama is winning every age group between 18 and 34, while McCain is winning every age group over 35. McCain overtakes Obama in the Age 35-39 demographic this week, while his polling for older age groups is leveling off from recent rises.






































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[yellerpup]

1. I could wish for a better message this week

but not for a better messenger. Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

4. Aw, thanks! :)

:donut: Happy Saturday morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

2. Wow, mcPOW actually LOST some AA support!

I think this week's economic crises knocked some of the older folks in the head, and will leave them thinking, we can't go on like this.

When I was phone banking for Obama, one man in a very conservative neighborhood told me that he believes "they will come out of the wordwook for Obama, at the last minute". He was not even a supporter, just terrified at the prospect of mcPOW.

I sure hope he is getting the right sense.:hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. 55-59 gap is shrinking, yes ...

Those are the folks watching their retirement accounts closely. Age 65 and up groups are also closing in a bit.

Seems like the guy in the conservative neighborhood has some insight. Hope he's right!

:donut: Happy Saturday! :hi:

[fasttense]

3. What is the party affiliation break out for these polls?

What percent of the sample identifies themselves as Democratic? What percent identifies as Republicon? How may independents were surveyed?

I ask because:
New registrations are overwhelmingly Democratic: The AP reported, just last week (September 7) that during the primary season, "more than two million Democrats (were added) to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344 thousand voters in the same states."

The same AP article reported that nationwide, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans, 42 million to 31 million.

As recently as September, Gallup reported that the Democrats had a ten percent lead in party affiliation among voters: 47% to 37%.

And 80% of the American public is "dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States." (Gallup, August 23, 2008).

Thanks to CrisisPapers for breaking out the facts.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=384670&mesg_id=384670

[phrigndumass]

7. It depends on the polling agency ... these numbers are averages

of all the national pollsters, excluding the daily trackers. I gather the data from the crosstabs in every national poll that releases them, such as ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Time, Newsweek, Fox, Pew, Reuters, Quinnipiac, USA Today, LA Times, Economist, AP/Ipsos, etc.

I read that AP article, it's great news! The 2 million voters added is an increase of 1.5%, so that makes it easier to see that the final outcome will be more in line with the crosstab data in the chart at the top of this thread than the overall state popular vote lead counted from the state polls. Good thing I've already accounted for these increases in the monster spreadsheet :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[TexasObserver]

6. great work

[phrigndumass]

8. thanks :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[rosesaylavee]

9. This is just great news

Thank you for crunching the numbers for us non-math types!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

12. yw :)

:hi:

[grantcart]

10. Yesterday in Yuma I flipped an AA Republican so according to your figures

there are only about 84 left. lol

[phrigndumass]

13. Make that 82, lol ...

A female colleague who saw my bumper sticker asked me several questions about Obama and the economy, and indirectly about non-profit fund raising. I shared with her all the bulletpoints I know about his economic plan, his tax plan, and the way his campaign has raised money (a great model for non-profits). She was pleased with the information and said she is thinking about voting for Obama this year. I asked her about her husband, who is also an acquaintance, and she said he votes the way she tells him to vote, lol! These are very conservative folks.

:hi:

[Demeter]

11. I Guess at this Moment, I'm Grateful for the Electoral College

which is something I never thought I'd say.

Good morning, P-Man!

[phrigndumass]

14. It seems to be a reverse-Gore at the moment :)

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

15. Hey!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

16. Hey Back! :)

:hi: :hi: :bounce:

[Kukesa]

17. Next week will be better. n/t

[phrigndumass]

18. You should be right ... we're still winning the electoral vote 285-253 :)

:hi: