Well, well, well Obama at 306 EV vs. McBush 231 EV on fivethirtyeight.com!

[flamingdem]

That's a HUGE jump! Nate Silver must have "adjusted" something?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. These guys are more conservative with their numbers

and even they are over 270 now

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[EV_Ares]

3. There was a poll the other day that showed Obama had pulled up in FL with it

being a 48 to 48 tie. Also, showing that Palin is hurting McCain in FL with her far out right-wing stuff.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. I like to look at more conservative places with their numbers

quite simple, I expect them to try to steal it

[EV_Ares]

2. Thanks when you read thru that, it seems to be one of the more accurate and complete

polls, hadn't ever seen that one. K&R.

[flamingdem]

4. The word is that this pollster tends to be conservative in order to be taken

seriously by those who own the data ... and so he had to tilt towards the Repukes but now I guess it's party time!

[EV_Ares]

7. Yeah, but at least you can read it and can see that he is not tilting stuff to the left or right but

more head on. I told another pollster here that somewhere I saw where Obama had pulled up to 48/48 tie w/McCain in FL. Also, they are saying Palin is really hurting McCain there with her right-wing religious extremist views.

[flamingdem]

8. Florida will be a major battle. Lots of fraudulent practices but Obama is investing 38 million

It's for the future of the party and if it goes blue, wow.

[PermanentRevolution]

9. "Conservative" in this case meaning "resistant to change," not "Republican"

His model is deliberately resistant to reflecting new shifts in polling until it establishes itself as a genuine trend rather than a temporary flux. My main problem with EV.com is that there's no accounting for reliability - newest poll always takes precedence, regardless of what it shows. 538's model is better, in my opinion.

[flamingdem]

10. Thanks for that info

Interesting

[JimWis]

5. Wow - great news - I see on the state map that a few red's have

now gone pink - or whatever color that is. I see Wis could do better. Might need to work on some of these folks, although in my area, we are pretty strong democrats already.

[Robbins]

6. 538

Nate has Obama winning the Kerry states the Gore States of New Mexico and Iowa plus Nevada,Colorado,
Virginia,and Ohio.The Way things are going If Mccain keeps this up and blunders In the debates as
he has this week Indiana,North Carolana,Florida and possable Missouri and Montanna are not out of
the question.

Nate does better than Electoral Vote.They keep Ignoring The recent Ohio and some Virginia numbers.

[undeterred]

12. I think we should not count Alaska's electoral votes.

There is something really screwy going on up there.