Obama Wins Without The South

[demwing]

The last political phenomenon comparable to Obama was Clinton in 1992. I took Clinton's EC Map:



then removed ALL of the states that Clinton won that sit beneath the 40th parallel North (the border between Kansas and Nebraska). I left California, Illinois, Maryland, and Delaware (sorry - I forgot Deleware the first time out :P), since we haven't lost those state since Reagan, and added New Mexico, since it looks to be firmly in our camp this year, and tada!:



The only snag is Ohio. If we lose it, or it gets stolen, we'll need Colorado, or Nevada + 1. The entire south can vote for McCain, and we still win ! The question is this - do you think the entire South WILL vote McCain? He's not a good ol' boy from Texas with a folksy nickname.

[sandnsea]

1. It's all about Colorado

To hell with the racists.

[demwing]

3. It is all about Colorado -hence the convention choice.

Despite Obama spending millions in Florida, we DON'T NEED IT.

McCain, on the other hand, cannot possibly win without it.

[grannie4peace]

2. you better make va blue

:( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :(

[demwing]

5. Add back Southern states as you like, we don't NEED them-of course we WANT them.

My point is we win with the 40th parallel (no southern state) plan.

[yellerpup]

6. My friend from Virginia

writes me every week about ringing doorbells and signing people up. She says she runs across a lot of racists there, but she was SO HAPPY to be recognized by the Obama campaign. Last week, she got to meet Michelle Obama as a reward for her hard work...and she's a great-granny!

edit for spelling

[grannie4peace]

33. that is cool!!!!

[yellerpup]

4. I know quite a few Southerners who are busting butt

to turn their states Blue this time. For everyone's sake, I hope they pull it off. They deserve a big victory! Thanks for the analysis. It is heartening! :dem:

[harun]

25. I hope so too (n/t)

[BumRushDaShow]

7. You forgot you added Delaware, which sits below 40N.

:P

[demwing]

19. Right you are. Updated with apologies.

:) thanks for the correction.

[BumRushDaShow]

27. Hee hee

Joe Biden don't get no respect for his little Delaware. :rofl: I tease them because Philly gives DE TV access.

[abumbyanyothername]

8. I see your point, but the point of the campaign

is not just to win, but to win decisively and with significant numbers of votes and close contests even in states that are lost so that the candidate has a mandate to CHANGE the way government is conducted.

I, for one, am one board with the 50 State Initiative.

I want a president of the United States who has a legitimate mandate to represent all Americans.

[samsingh]

13. hopefully, but it is to win

bush stole 271 to 269 and acted as if it was the ultimate mandate to fuck everything up.

[ladjf]

9. Republicanism has thrived off of the support of the less educated

citizens of the United States. If public education could be brought to the same level of importance as the moon landing and the energy problems, in forty years, Republicanism would be a forgotten bad memory.

[knixphan]

16. AMEN!

[Divine Discontent]

10. Obama will win despite the South...

I am shocked that these older people in FL can be so NAIVE and willingly march along to the same lockstep B*sh policies that have made their children suffer to the point where many are moving back in with them, and seeing their own investments drop 10-30% the past few years. B*shit is the father of suffering for this current American generation - and when Obama does win, it will be despite the South's ignorance as a plurality. I hope a state or two breakthrough, like VA or FL.

MORE AT www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable

[samsingh]

11. NH is not rock solid either

[BumRushDaShow]

15. I think that after the NH legislature voted to take ("commie") Venezuelan oil for winter

then they are coming around! ;)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/19/new-hampshire-to-accept-f_n_113793.html

[demwing]

18. OK - pull NH's 4 EC votes fromthe 284 count, we still win.

But I agree with BumRush...NH will go Blue in '08.

[BlooInBloo]

32. Yah it is.

[grantcart]

12. correct but Obama is still fighting and will win Virginia and Florida

[BumRushDaShow]

17. I would agree that VA should be do-able

considering that the state had already elected someone like Wilder (and neither the state nor the world came to an end) - and that was back in the early '90s... and VA (at least NoVA) has become bluer since then.

[demwing]

20. Icing on the cake, and glad to have them

but we have a winning foundation that does NOT rely on one southern state to win.

[grantcart]

23. But being the brilliant strategist they are they are committing $ 39 million to Florida

forcing McCain to commit resources he needs for other states or kiss Florida - and the election good by

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/147

[AlCzervik]

14. wouldn't it be something to win with the south so? Maybe someday.

a girl can dream.

[demwing]

21. I actually think we'll do better than my EC Map prediction

but it's better to set expections lower than performance, than to do the opposite.

[Arugula Latte]

22. Wouldn't that be satisfying?

No slam on all the great Southern DUers and liberals working hard to elect Democrats -- just a slam against all those RW southern assholes who have been leading us all around by the nose for way too long.

[AlCzervik]

28. it would be and for southern dems i bet it would be the best gift ever.

i totally appreciate all of them because i'm sure it can be so frustrating for them.

[BumRushDaShow]

24. It's sad too... considering the largest %s of black population are right there

in all those southern "(alleged) red states". It boggles the mind.

Mississippi = 39%
Louisiana = ? (I put this because Katrina has scattered so many but it used to be 32%)
Georgia = 30%
South Carolina = 29%
(Maryland = 27%)
Alabama = 26%
North Carolina = 22 %
(Delaware = 21%)
Virginia = 20%
Tennessee = 17%
Arkansas = 16%
Florida = 16%
Kentucky = 8%
West Virginia = 3% <---- boy this is wild, it's like ethnic cleansing

"( )" = blue states

[johnnyrocket]

26. He's gonna HAVE to win without the south, he doesn't have a chance there.

...so sad, too.

[Arugula Latte]

29. He does in VA and NC, though.

[johnnyrocket]

30. Agreed, basically VA is less and less "the south"...

...NC seems like a long shot, however.

[demwing]

31. I wouldn't rule out WV, VA, NC, or FL

Obama is running strong in three of the four, and freaking Dukakis won W Virginia. Why can't we?