DKos/R2000 9/21: Obama 49 (-1) McCain 42 (even)

[regnaD kciN]

No internals posted yet. Since Thursday's daily results were O 50 - M 42, and Friday's were O 49 - M 42, it would appear that yesterday was likely either 48-42 or 49-42.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

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[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Nate Silver Said He Expected Obama's Latest Bounce To Run Its Course

Could it be Obama's or any Democrat's natural ceiling is around 50%?

My final prediction is Obama 49% McInane 48% with Barr, Nader, McKinney and others splitting the rest...

[regnaD kciN]

3. Could be...

...but there isn't really a whole lot of difference between 50-42 and 49-42. (Which could actually be as small a difference as 49.5 versus 49.4, or even 49.5 versus 49.4999999999.) Especially since Friday and Saturday night polling would be subject to the oft-discussed "weekend effect."

I would expect the "meltdown bounce" to fade over the next few days, but probably not enough to put McCain back into a tie or lead by the time of the first debate.

[LiberadorHugo]

2. No surprise there...

There's too many stupid people in the USA for an 8 point Obama lead to be sustainable. :-(

[jefferson_dem]

4. Thanks. Internals here --

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/21

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. He ticked down a point among whites.

I am not going to sweat any poll unless there are big gaffes or momentum changing events...

[jefferson_dem]

7. Every AM I tell myself "I'm not going to sweat the silly ups and downs of today's news cycle."

We almost always end up right back in the same place --- the status quo.

One day, I'll resist the temptation and actually follow through, for the sake of...my sanity.

[Jennicut]

5. I will be happy with a 5 point lead at this point.

I hope it stays that way after the debates. Obama needs to do a good debate but I have confidence he will. I will not doubt the man anymore.