I'm starting to think Obama will take Florida and lose Ohio by a slim margin.

[Drunken Irishman]

Ohio is slowly been moving in his direction, but not at the pace Florida has. I think the economy will actually have a greater impact in Florida because of the senior citizen vote, as they tend to be more concerned over economic troubles because many are living above their means.

I believe if the election were held today, Obama would win the following swing states:

Pennsylvania
Virginia
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Florida
Colorado
New Mexico

If that were the case, Obama would win 313-225.

[Thrill]

1. The Latest Poll

I saw had Obama ahead in OH

[Drunken Irishman]

4. The polls are all over the place in Ohio, however, in Florida one thing is consistent.

And it's showing Obama moving up, while McCain moving down.

In Ohio, one poll shows Obama up, another shows McCain up by six. I just don't know what to think about Ohio, the polling there seems too fickle, but in Florida it's consistent in showing Obama down, but gaining big over the past two weeks.

[BlooInBloo]

2. If anything, it'll be the opposite.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Like I said to the above poster...

Ohio has a ton of polls out that are all over the place. It's strange how fickle the polls are, but Florida is more stable, with McCain losing his lead and Obama catching up rather quickly.

IF that is the case, I'm inclined to go with the more consistent state than a state like Ohio that might have Obama up in poll by 4 and down in another by six. That's a nine point swing...hard to imagine.

[BlooInBloo]

7. My map was from a model, not a poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Well what does the model base this on?

[BlooInBloo]

12. All major available polls plus a whole lot of math that's probably going to be ignored...

by your response, since I said the magic word "poll".

[Drunken Irishman]

14. As it should be.

Without the polls, the math is useless and as I've said, Ohio is the only major battle ground state that has not stabilized in any way. If all the polls, across the board, had Obama down, I doubt this model would have him up. However, it isn't like that and a few polls have him leading there, while a few have him losing. In Florida, though, the polls suggest one thing: McCain is losing ground and Obama is gaining. In Ohio, they're all over the place.

[crazy_vanilla]

3. positive thinking, please

send positive energy into the Universe

[Drunken Irishman]

6. It is positive.

Florida 27 electoral votes, Ohio 20. If Obama could win only one, I'd take Florida every day and twice on Sundays, as it means a larger victory.

[grantcart]

8. He could even win Indiana and lose Ohio

Keep your eye on Indiana and Florida these are going to be the big stories on election day.


Bush won Indiana by more than 20 points.

[blueinindiana]

10. Indiana willnot go Obama.

I live here and yes Obama is doing better than i expected but this is Klan Country.

[Tribetime]

11. let's take both of them

in 6 weeks Obama will only gain support, starting with the debates. You know who won't pass the threshold test versus Biden, which may help close it out also.

[OmahaBlueDog]

13. One factor in Florida is that the CUban-American demographic is changing

The 1st generation of immigrants, who came after the revolution, have voted Republican since the Bay of Pigs

The Mariel generation largely followed the lead of the older generation who welcomed them and set them up.

Now, the kids and grand kids of these groups are struggling with big city economic issues and a horrid housing market. Combine that with the GOP's embrace of the anti-immigration movement. My thought is that they might tilt this thing to Obama.

[Sebastian Doyle]

15. If Obama loses Ohio

The people of that state had better demand Strickland's resignation the next day.

[krawhitham]

16. OHIO will be blue

book it

[Motown_Johnny]

17. Lets wait till after the first debate... next sunday the conversation will be different than today