Can we dream of winning Florida this time ?

[UndertheOcean]

It is polling close .... quite close

[BlooInBloo]

1. It's tough, but it's possible.

[Orsino]

2. If the polls show it close, it may already be won.

We'll never know for sure, given the opacity of machine voting and various voter caging and intimidation projects, but I think winning in Florida is very possible--whether or not we are ever allowed to know that we won.

[dtotire]

3. TWO (different) Florida polls show McCain, Obama nearly tied

This looks promising

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: September 21, 2008

Filed at 11:56 a.m. ET

THE POLL: The Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll, presidential race, registered Florida voters (27 electoral votes)

THE NUMBERS: John McCain 47 percent, Barack Obama 45 percent

OF INTEREST: Strengthening the economy was cited as the top priority at least three times more often than any other issue, and 49 percent of voters trusted Obama more to improve the economy, compared to 40 percent for McCain. Among independent voters, 53 percent trusted Obama more on the economy, to just 30 percent for McCain.

DETAILS: Conducted Sept. 14-17 by telephone survey with 800 registered Florida voters. Sampling error plus or minus 3.5 percent.

MORE: http://www.miamiherald.com/979/story/695102.html


THE POLL: The Florida Times-Union/South Florida Sun Sentinel poll, presidential race, likely Florida voters (27 electoral votes)

THE NUMBERS: John McCain 46 percent, Barack Obama 45 percent

OF INTEREST: A third of voters rated the economy and jobs as the most important issue, followed by oil/gas/energy prices and health care. About 46 percent said they put more trust in Obama to deal with the economy, while 38 percent put more trust in McCain. Sixteen percent were undecided. Women favored Obama over McCain 48 percent to 41 percent; men favored McCain over Obama 51 percent to 42 percent.
DETAILS: Conducted Sept. 15-18 by telephone survery with 600 likely Florida voters. Sampling error plus or minus 4 percent.

MORE: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-florida-pres identialpoll-results,0,7555491.htmlstory



http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-Poll-2008-Florida.html

[UndertheOcean]

4. Good News !

[ahem]

5. From my spot on the I-4 corridor, it's lookin good.

No formal poll to offer, but I can tell you, I'm not feeling the McCain love down here. In 2004, the Bush/Cheney signs and bumber stickers were everywhere -- even several in my mostly liberal neighborhood. I haven't seen one sign for McCain/Palin. My husband, who travels the area more, has spotted one and only one. Obama signs, buttons and bumper stickers aren't so rare :)

Also, my family members from other parts of the state (and from the other side of the aisle), aren't saying a word about McCain. I can't tell you how unusual that is. They usually egg on fights and brag about their guy -- not this time. They're flat out avoiding political conversations.

I know loads of Obama supporters down here -- even some that aren't Dems.

I have hope.

[BklynChick]

6. that would make me so happy; not only would we win it would be some poetic justice for 2000

[featherman]

7. What polling doesn't show: turnout, turnout, turnout

Obama's extensive organization and massive voter registration activity will all contribute to an increased Democratic turnout.

Always remember that, on average, only than 60%-65% of eligible citizens actually cast their ballots in 2000 and 2004. Increasing our side's registration advantage and turnout by 5% or more can make the crucial difference in any state that is polling within the margin of error as FL, CO, OH, VA, WV, IN and other 2004 red states are.

Here in Siskiyou County CA (CA is not a battleground but Siskiyou itself is red and we are working to turn it blue to help the down ticket) we have opened a headquarters in downtown Yreka and are registering voters there and every Saturday outside a grocery store in Yreka and with a booth at the college in Weed. Similar efforts are moving forward in south county towns.

This election will turn on ground game and it is up to all of us who care to get it done over the next 6 weeks.

More on turnout numbers here:

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html