Can Obama win without PA?

[blueinindiana]

I starting to have serious doubts about Obama and PA for many reasons the main being RACISM but also Governor Ed Rendell who would rather see 4 years of McCain and another Clinton run than a Obama victory.

i also fear for Ohio due to racsim.

How is Obama supposed to win if he can't win PA or OH?

I foresee Obama winning the popular vote and losing electorally.

He going to do better in red states but not enough to win them and thus winning the popular vote but still lose the election.

[Motown_Johnny]

1. We would need Florida

[blueinindiana]

2. Florida will not go Obama

Racism and his middle name will make sure of that.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Keep the faith. It's nearly dead even in every poll coming out of FL right now.

Palm Beach County types are spooked by Palin and Obama has just now launched his criticisms of McLame's maniacal SS privatization scheme. The Campaign is determined to keep FL in play all the way until election day. Watch it happen.

[PermanentRevolution]

28. You can tell that all the way from Indiana, huh?

'Cause those of us that actually live here aren't quite so certain of that.

[Hutzpa]

45. Dang!! you seem sure of yourself

ain't you, my God people what the hell is wrong with you folks????

[saltpoint]

50. I think Florida is within our grasp.

Certainly McCain will carry the Panhandle counties but the level of activity and commitment is up in the I-4 corridor, Miami-Dade is a more contemporary Miami-Dade, there's been no significant decline in support for the blue counties in SE Florida -- Broward or Palm Beach, McCain wants off-shore drilling in a state dependent on tourist dollars generally and beach tourist dollars especially, Biden is more persuasive to older voters than Palin in a state where there are kazillions of older voters, recent polling shows Obama near-tied or slightly ahead, and McCain's presence in the state is lackluster.

I say we carry Florida.

[PCIntern]

3. If he loses PA, he loses several other states...

IMO. We are pushing hard here...AA voters are going to turn out in record numbers...I've never seen the community so mobilized...now all we have to do is get them all counted.

[flamingdem]

6. thanks!!!

[blueinindiana]

8. I agree

If he loses PA he will also lose OH and Michigan at the very least.


It is sad this country still judges people by their race instead of their character.

[quakerboy]

43. From your lips.

[flamingdem]

4. Where's Hillary? We need her in PA (and FL)

Hillary, Bill come out wherever you are...

[globalvillage]

5. Rendell is campaigning for Obama

I saw him yesterday. Are you seeing somewhere that he's not?

http://www.kerryvision.net/2008/09/created_with_admarkets_flickrs.html

[Bunny]

30. Rendell forming 'truth squad' to defend Obama

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08265/913835-470.stm?cmpid=news.xml

<snip>
Gov. Ed Rendell said he plans to announce a "truth squad" initiative tomorrow to counter "lies and distortions" by the campaign of Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee.

At a news conference yesterday morning in Pittsburgh with Mayor Luke Ravenstahl and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Mr. Rendell said that television ads and statements by the campaign have inaccurately suggested that Mr. McCain's Democratic opponent, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, would raise taxes on most Americans.

The vast majority, in fact, would receive bigger tax breaks under Mr. Obama's tax plan, he said, outlining various groups of lower- and middle-income people, ranging from a single parent with young children to couples and elderly widows, that he said would do better.

Mr. Rendell and others have accused the McCain campaign before of making false statements about Mr. Obama's tax plan. Last week, for example, FactCheck.org said the McCain campaign "has released yet another ad that makes false claims."
<snip>

[globalvillage]

34. Thanks, I was looking for that.

I was taking pictures, and not able to take notes.

[IndianaGreen]

7. Obama needs all the states Kerry won, plus a couple of others (w/o Ohio)

If Obama can't win PA, then he will lose other states that Kerry carried.

[d_b]

9. McCain won't be taking any kerry states *

bet the house on it.

but if he did lose PA, he could get to 270 by winning Virginia (He'd also need NV, CO, NM). And Virginia is looking quite good for us. McCain unable to escape MOE + Barack ground game = Win.

*assuming there are no shenanigans.

[LiberadorHugo]

10. Your concerned is duly noted.

Personally, I do not share it. Pittsburgh and the outer suburbs of Philly have been trending blue since the early-1990s and record turn out in both the inner suburbs and Philadelphia proper will be more than enough to but BHO over the top. GOBAMA!!!!

[cali]

12. theoretically yes, but in reality, no. However, odds are strong that

Obama will win PA, though OH looks to be more difficult. But Obama is in far better shape than McCain is.

[melody]

13. He'll win Pennsylvania

He has to. We have no other choice. Which is why we will all keep working, despite the concern.

[skipos]

14. Ignore Zogby interactive polls

If you do that, McCain hasn't been up in a PA poll in months. Can you answer one question for me? Why are people betting on intrade that McCain only has a 30% chance of winning PA, while Obama has a 70% chance of winning it?

[LiberadorHugo]

16. The 30% percent are morans...

They're the same sort of people who will piss away their government cheques at the slot machines or at the race tracks and then thump their Bibles and complain that those good-for-nothing heathens are spending $20 a week on PokerStars. :-)

Fundamental principle of GOP crapitalism:

Haliburton and Bechtel: Legitimate, patriotic businesses!!!!!

Sportsbook and PokerStars: Fronts through which the Big Scary Gangsters launder our money.

[Jennicut]

15. No! PA must go blue and I think it will. We might actually get CO and NM as well

Ohio and Florida are the ones to watch I think. Those are more up for grabs then PA.

[FrenchieCat]

Thank you for your firm concern.

We appreciate the doom and gloom...especially now. Thank you for it!

[writes3000]

19. It's amazing. Sheer negativity. nt

[iiibbb]

17. Short answer... yes.

Several scenarios where he loses PA and wins.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[PerfectSage]

18. I'm not concerned. Even Rove.com.s electoral map shows Obama leading in PA.

:rofl:

[Danger Mouse]

20. This post is absurd, as is your post about Florida.

Ask the elderly Jews in Florida how much they like Sarah Palin. :D

[mdmc]

21. we can't win without pa

[earthlover]

22. MI, OH, FL and PA will all be close. Obama needs any 2 out of 4.

If Obama wins 2 of the above, he can pick up the slack in VA, IA, NV, NM, CO or MO.

I know it is tense right now. But the debates have not even started yet.

My personal opinion is a little different than some. I think Obama has the most to gain from the debates. He doesn't have to "win" them in the classic sense, like Kerry did in 04.

A lot of people WANT to support Obama but are uncertain about whether he is up to the job, due to the experience thing mainly. If Obama can hold his own, he will do good enough to make these people comfortable to support him. McCain is gonna come off old, and people will prefer something else. Obama will win the debates by tying them, in my view.

[AtomicKitten]

23. .

[provis99]

24. the key states are the three bellwether states: Missouri, Ohio, and Penn

we don't need Florida if he wins these three.

[John1956PA]

25. In PA, seniors and pro-life voters (especially Catholics) are big factors.

Casey beat Santorum handily in 2006 because Casey appealed to pro-lifers. Also, in 2006, Rendell beat Swann handily because seniors related to Rendell's elder appearance. PA is a tough nut for liberals to crack. But, it is likely that the vote in Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie, Scranton, and a handful of other cities with populations over 50,000 will offset the rural vote which would never go more than 33% for the Democratic candidate regardless of who he or she might be. Obama can win here if he is strong in the debates. I think Obama needs PA to win.

[WinkyDink]

32. Excuse me, but Big Ed looked "elder"? Bwahaha! He's the halest fellow well-met YOU'LL ever see!

He defeated Swannie because the latter was a MORON.

[John1956PA]

36. Elder not elderly.

From Dictionary.com:

dictionary results for: elder

1. of greater age; older.

. . .

[MgtPA]

51. Casey beat Santorum because Santorum is vomit on a plate!

[grandpappy]

52. Why Erie?

Erie is republican strong hold. Along with the western counties bordering Ohio except in the south eastern part of the state.

[John1956PA]

53. I stand corrected about Erie.

I thought that the city of Erie favored the Democrats. You are also correct in stating that the Northwest rural counties such as Crawford, Warren, Mercer, Jefferson, Venango, and Bradford are strongly Republican. Evenly split is Lawrence County where the cities of New Castle and Ellwood favor the Democrats and the rural townships favor the Republicans.

[grandpappy]

61. No problem

:)

[TimeChaser]

65. A pro-life, life-long Catholic Republican I know in PA

is voting for Obama in November.

[Hippo_Tron]

26. It's theoretically possible for him to win and lose Pennsylvania but unlikely

Pennsylvania and other "swing states" are "swing states" because they are somewhat of a bellwether for the rest of the nation. If Obama loses this swing state that tends to favor Democrats then he likely won't win the swing states that tend to favor Republicans.

Still it is theoretically possible. There used to be an old saying "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" because it was the traditional bellwether. Then in 1936 Roosevelt beat Landon in every state except for Maine and Vermont and one of Roosevelt's political advisors re-coined the phrase "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont".

That said, Obama will win Pennsylvania.

[DiamondKrosse]

58. No Dem has won the Presidency without PA since

1948, when Harry Truman beat Tom Dewey in his famous upset win. However, oddly enough, it did go with Hoover in 1932, one of the few states to do so.

[bermudat]

27. He will win if all the young folks who registered to vote actually vote.

[BklynChick]

29. no we can't. but we WILL win PA

[WinkyDink]

31. Your comment about Rendell is asinine. Moreover, PA. will go BLUE.

[BumRushDaShow]

33. PA is going for the Democrat. Period.

There are 1,000,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in PA.

How did Rendell, a Jewish former mayor and former D.A. of a "big city in SE of PA" (not western PA or upstate PA), get into office, not once, but TWICE after the so-called "popular" Republican PA governor Tom Ridge became the head of more "big government" (and similarly a Democrat, Bob Casey became governor TWICE after an earlier "popular" Republican PA governor named Dick Thornburgh had become head of the DOJ as the U.S. Attorney General)?

PA is no longer a "red state". It is solidly purple turning blue. And IMHO, there are some hardened Democrats upstate who have been Democrats for life and would rather sit home (if they don't want Obama) than pull the repuke lever. I think that considering that McLame had been a moderate candidate until his body was co-opted by the lunatic fringe neocons and religious nutjobs, he probably would have done better than he will now. And with the Catholic vote here, as they learn about Palin's brand of "religion", they are going to shy away from the rest of her unorthodox philosophy once they get beyond the anti-abortion part. And correspondingly, the hunters may also shy away from her brand of "cheating" while hunting. These are more who may sit home if they refuse to vote for Obama.

I expect the racism may turn out to be what some are dubbing "reverse-Bradley", where they will still lie to the pollsters, but the other way, being too embarrassed to publicly admit to holding their noses and voting for their pocketbooks (and for a black man). Many of these folks react similarly as lone Democrats living in red communities who feared being labeled as a Democrat (and in some cases, being forced to hide their preferred party lest they be ostracized or get less services, etc), and thus either didn't bother to vote, or registered independent and only voted in general elections, or registered Republican but crossed over during a general election.

I am more concerned about what is up with Indiana, which sits right next to Illinois? :(

[Doctor_J]

35. There's a lot of posters wondering about MI, PA, OH, FL

and most, including you, are now on my ignore list.

[saltpoint]

37. Yes, but it won't be an issue, IMO.

We carry the Keystone State.

[Secret_Society]

38. Yes but I wouldn't worry about PA

[BlooInBloo]

39. PA is a lock. Sheesh.

EDIT: And I can't WAIT to shove PRESIDENT OBAMA in PA racist hicks' faces next year.

EDITEDIT: per 538.com, Obama wins PA 85% of the time in simulations. That's a lock.

[MadrasT]

48. Cheers for this:

"EDIT: And I can't WAIT to shove PRESIDENT OBAMA in PA racist hicks' faces next year."

I'll second that. I've been dealing with PA racist hicks my whole life (grew up in RED Lancaster County, since then have moved farther east where it's not quite so horrendous).

I will positively relish shoving PRESIDENT OBAMA in their faces. :woohoo:

GOBAMA!!! :bounce:

[BzaDem]

40. If he wins IA, NM, loses PA, but wins FL, he will have exactly 270.

If he doesn't win one of PA, OH, or FL, it is very difficult for him to win. I don't think anyone would disagree with me there.

[alcibiades_mystery]

41. This is so fucking stupid

Obama is not going to lose Pennsylvania. Every four years we have this silly talk. It's ridiculous.

PA is a blue state. I lived in the central part of it for 8 years. It is a blue state.

[BzaDem]

44. What's stupid is to assert we will win it because you live in the central part of it.

I still think we are more likely to win it, but I am not about to pretend that it will be easy, or that it will be a massive win, or that it might not be a squeaker.

[alcibiades_mystery]

46. It won't be a squeaker

5%

bookmark it.

keep working, but by all means bookmark it.

[grantcart]

42. and you also believe that it is impossible for Obama to win Indiana

so its all pretty consistent for you.

[BlooInBloo]

55. Ah - I didn't realize the poster's history.

[darius15]

47. Unless McCain wins the popular vote by 4-6 percent, PA goes blue.

Count on it.

[sampsonblk]

49. Don't worry about PA

The Keystone state is solid.

[Awsi Dooger]

54. No chance in hell

Because it's not an isolated outcome. Pennsyalvania is several points blue compared to the nation itself. If we lose Pennsylvania, it means it's a national trend and everything else of significance is also lost.

[dchill]

56. Stop worrying about that stupid AP article...

and mindless concern-trolling talking heads. Barack knows what he is doing, and he's going to win PA.

[RBInMaine]

57. PA is a MUST (and we will if we FIGHT) and Florida is VERY doable. Also,

It is very competetive in IN, NC, NV, VA, and OH, and we're winning in CO, IA, and NM right now which were all red last time. With the right ATTACK-THE-BASTARDS-RELENTLESSLY campaign, we can and will this election even in some RED territory.

[paregdem]

59. Rendell Forming 'Truth Squad' to Defend Obama

Sorry if this has already been posted, I had to hurry and add the article below that was in today's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette before I got the chance to read all of the replies.

Rendell Forming 'truth squad' to defend Obama

Sunday, September 21, 2008
By Joe Fahy, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Gov. Ed Rendell said he plans to announce a "truth squad" initiative tomorrow to counter "lies and distortions" by the campaign of Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee.

At a news conference yesterday morning in Pittsburgh with Mayor Luke Ravenstahl and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Mr. Rendell said that television ads and statements by the campaign have inaccurately suggested that Mr. McCain's Democratic opponent, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, would raise taxes on most Americans.

The vast majority, in fact, would receive bigger tax breaks under Mr. Obama's tax plan, he said, outlining various groups of lower- and middle-income people, ranging from a single parent with young children to couples and elderly widows, that he said would do better.

Paul Lindsay, a McCain campaign spokesman, said that at a time of increased economic hardship, Pennsylvania families deserve to know about Mr. Obama's record, including that he has voted for higher taxes "nearly 100 times" in the Senate and "plans to tax coal and natural gas that are an engine for job growth in the state." In February, Mr. Obama did tell a San Antonio newspaper, "What we ought to tax is dirty energy, like coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas." But the remark was made after he was asked whether taxes should be levied on renewable energy sources and "was not a general call for increasing taxes on coal or natural gas," according to FactCheck.org. Mr. Obama "certainly does not have any such proposal as part of his public platform," the Web site noted.

Mr. Rendell and others have accused the McCain campaign before of making false statements about Mr. Obama's tax plan. Last week, for example, FactCheck.org said the McCain campaign "has released yet another ad that makes false claims."

"As we keep saying," the Web site noted, "Obama says he'll raise income taxes and capital gains taxes only for couples earning more than $250,000 per year or singles making over $200,000."

Less clear is how Mr. Obama, if elected, would accomplish those goals, particularly facing budget deficits and a struggling economy, said G. Terry Madonna, a political science professor and pollster from Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

Mr. Rendell was in town yesterday for political meetings and appearances, but no official business, said his spokesman, Chuck Ardo.

The news conference was held at Grandview Park, Mount Washington, where the Obama campaign kicked off "Steps for Change," a local effort to register new voters. While those efforts have been ongoing, "Steps for Change" acknowledged Pittsburgh's status as the U.S. city with the most public stairways -- 712, with a total of 44,645 steps.

Polls show the race between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama has narrowed in Pennsylvania, considered a battleground state.

Speaking to a small group of Obama canvassers at the news conference, Mr. Ravenstahl and Mr. Vilsack, a Pittsburgh native, urged them to press on.

"We need to continue to do whatever we can" before the Nov. 4 election, Mr. Ravenstahl told the group. "You all will make the difference."

Joe Fahy can be reached at [e-mail] or 412-263-1722.

[donco6]

60. I'm only having serious doubts about you.

Can't win Indiana, can't win PA. Polls showing otherwise.

GTFO.

[darius15]

62. Come, on leave him alone.We're all Democrats here.

If he was a rethug, we would know and the admins would remove him right away.

Although pretty much everyone here disagrees with the OP that we can't win PA, let's leave the "GTFO" stuff outta this thread, please?

[melody]

71. Do you know how many trolls we have here?

Go take a look at all the "concern posts" all ready for Monday morning.

[yellowcanine]

63. Obama will win PA and OH and likely FL also. The outcome in Obama's favor will be nearly certain

by 9 pm EST on election night. A lot of people talk about 2004 but this does not even come close to resembling 2004. There was an incumbent president in 2004. Obama is a better candidate than Kerry and is running a better campaign. Palin has energized some of the Republican base, yes, but it is offset by her high negatives with the rest of the electorate. McCain loses some independents and potential Hillary defectors with Palin on board.
And Palin will tilt some wavering moderate Republicans against McCain.

[mtnsnake]

64. You really seem to love talking about an impending Obama loss, racism, & bashing the Clintons

Take your incessant negativity somewhere else.

[Thrill]

66. We don't win without PA. Thats the bottom line

[tritsofme]

67. If he were to lose PA, states like MN MI and OH would already be lost.

So its not all that likely of a situation to begin with.

[LiberadorHugo]

68. And when, pretell, has MN ever gone red?

Just wondering.

[Arkana]

69. We're not gonna lose PA, so quit bellyaching.

[okieinpain]

70. I have this funny feeling that it will not even be close on 11/04.

and I'm one of those person's that was worried about the polls after the repug's convention. not saying obama isn't going to have to work for it, but when it breaks it's going to break big.

[old mark]

72. My wife and I are in PA, and our votes will carry the state

for Obama.

mark

[No Elephants]

73. I don't believe Rendell is a PUMA. He is an old school Dem. He'll work for Obama.

[CarbonDate]

74. Obama needs Pennsylvania.

Or Ohio.

Or Florida.

McCain needs both Ohio and Florida, plus Colorado or one other surprise.

But in reality, Obama needs every state he can get. That said, this thing's not in the bag, but I like our chances.