Why are states like OH, PA and Fl close?

[CatsDogsBabies]

Sometimes I can't believe it. Have people in these states looked at the people running on the Republican ticket? Are people really going to vote for McCain? Maybe I shouldn't be overconfident, but I feel pretty confident for Obama/Biden.

[bluestateguy]

1. This is what, the eighth post on this subject today, asking basically the same question

When was the last time those states were NOT close?

Even in 1996 Bill Clinton won Ohio by only 6%.

Geesh.

[phillysuse]

2. Racism and stupidity

Low information voters.

[Orsino]

7. Same as in any other state.

Forgot to add that we should factor in corruption, too.

[roseBudd]

3. Because 30 DUers have not signed up to help w/my SW OH Rapid Response team yet?

All it takes is a keyboard & an internet connection. I think 32.9 million page views in August makes it worth it.

Plus the viewers are heavily skewed towards being voters in Ohio!

PM me to help.

I'm typing as fast as I can & I can't keep up.

[lovelydem]

4. rosebud57 I will help!

[roseBudd]

11. Thanks! PM me your email address & I will send you all the info you need !

[progressiveforever]

5. Ohio

Ohio is a little blueish where are there are universities. In other places, it is bright red.
Democrats can only when Ohio with hevy voter turnout.
Life long Ohio resident.

[VeraAgnes]

6. Obama and Biden are like

rarely seen here in Pa. I don't think they have been in Ohio much either. My sister saw Biden last week in Northeastern Ohio but no Obama. I think they have a different strategy this time around.........Ohio, Pa. are not a priority.

[Jane Austin]

8. We were in PA near Allentown two weeks ago.

Obama was all over the small cities like Lancaster and places I'd never heard of while we were there. He seemed to be there for at least two days.

I didn't have teevee there, but it was sure in the Allentown paper.

[Jennicut]

9. Biden was in Ohio for two days! I think that is a priority.

Geez.

[VeraAgnes]

18. Yea, I know...my

sister got to see him, Biden. She has a signed copy of his book now too. I'm western Pa. and really want to see Obama before it's too late.

[krawhitham]

44. And he will be in Cincinnati Wednesday

[Cosmocat]

21. it's a big country - they have been here in Pa...

a bit, I think they will make a bit of an extended run here as the clock starts winding down.

LOT'S of ground to cover.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Captain Hilts]

12. I think the Rev. Wright stuff hurt him among white men.

He was winning them pretty strongly until that came out, then his numbers flattened.

That's my guess.

It SHOULDN't be close - ANYWHERE.

[backscatter712]

13. We need to introduce more people to Muthee...

When they hear that Palin's crazy preacher has been organizing literal witchhunts, maybe they'll reconsider.

[Captain Hilts]

16. That's a good idea. nt

[LynneSin]

26. Rev Wright hurt Obama amongst white men who wouldn't have voted for him anyways

seriously!

him or any democrat for that matter!

[Drunken Irishman]

14. They've always been swing states.

Yeesh, did you guys follow the election prior to 2008?

They were swing states in 2004, 2000, 1996 and even 1992. Remember, Clinton lost Florida in 1992 and barely won Ohio.

It isn't like these are solid Democratic states. In the case of Florida and Ohio, they're Republican-leaning swing states.

[iiibbb]

15. My opinion, a significant portion of the population votes based on a party's legacy...

... not on the current issues of the day.


They still see Republicans as the party of "low-taxes, small gov't, and pro-gun, etc."

They still see Democrats as "high-taxes, big gov't, anti-gun, etc."


Doesn't matter what's going on in the world. They'll vote the way they've always voted.

[Captain Hilts]

17. That's exactly right. We're fighting for the 10% in the middle who are undecided. nt

[jody]

19. A few divisive, polarizing issues make them swing states. One issue is RKBA. In each state ,

70-80% of the congressional districts have representatives who are rated A by pro-gun organizations and rated F by anti-gun organizations.

IMO that issue will be one of the few that determine who wins the 85 electoral votes in FL, PA, OH, MI and the election.

RKBA, the right to keep and bear arms protected by the Second Amendment.

[amborin]

20. in '04, Kerry should have gotten at least 95% of the total vote

given the Bush debacle

any rational, informed voter would have chosen Kerry

the fact the election was even close, tells you what kind of electorate we're dealing with

we've got the same electorate now, only more charged up due to palin

it's a challenge

[Donald Ian Rankin]

22. Sarah Palin.

Obama had McCain on the ropes. Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin is looking worryingly close.

Palin is new, exciting and different. Anyone who votes on personalities rather than issues is more likely to go Republican rather than Democrat, it appears.

[budkin]

23. The sad truth is because Obama is black. That's it.

[Captain Hilts]

24. No, it's not. Black politicians have done well in PA and Colin Powell could have won the state.

Again, the "God damn the United States" clip of Rev. Wright really hurt Obama among working class white men - who had been voting for him earlier in the primary season. It's a reason Obama's numbers have flat-lined since early March and why Clinton kept winning primaries.

[DefenseLawyer]

47. That's kind of a stretch

To look at polling of a hypothetical candidacy of Colin Powell -someone who didn't even have a party affiliation- and proclaim that he would have "won the state".

[verges]

33. That doesn't wash completely in Ohio.

Maybe a little, but remember, the Ohio Republican darling Ken Blackwell is black.

[mwb970]

46. IOKIYAR. /nt

[LynneSin]

25. They are polling only likely voters

which tend to be rural & suburban voters AND republican.

Trust me, he's not winning Pennsylvania

[flamingdem]

27. Hey what happened to the OP "catsdogsbabies"?????

You need to tend your thread my love

[SteelPenguin]

28. PA Isn't as close as they're making it out, but if it is, it's because of Choice

There are alot of social conservative people in PA that are Union, Working Class, Hunter/Fisher, Gun Owning, Church Going people.

Economically, Health Care, etc they like the Democratic positions, but they vote republican because of their Pro-Life positions, their 2nd Ammendment positions. They don't hate gay people, but they are anti-gay marriage because of their religious viewpoints.

It's a weird state this way. We have a pro-choice republican senator, and a pro-life democratic one.

Alot of it also is 'voting for the team' that people picked. Alot of people I think converted to vote for Reagan in 1980 and have stuck with it.

I think you're looking at 5-6% racism, but the rest is just voting for the team that they share a few social views on that will never change no matter what party is in power. Get them to realize that Roe v Wade isn't going to be overturned by the president, and that Obama won't be taking away their guns, and you've got a chance to convert them on economic/war/foreign areas.

[madmom]

29. I live in NW Ohio, surrounded by big family owned farms that have been

handed down through the families for generations. These "farmers" are afraid they might have to pay their fair share of taxes is they decide they want to sell. I put farmers in quote because the majority of them live in Florida and rent their farms to low income share croppers. They ALL vote republican.

[wvbygod]

36. Why should anyone pay a tax for selling their home or farm?

There are enough taxes out there people can not escape. No need to pay any more tax for
selling your home or farm.

[madmom]

37. The taxes I'm referring to are capital gaines taxes, inheritance taxes, another

I can't remember what it is called around here, but if they keep it in the family they can defer the taxes till the property is sold then all the back taxes will then have to be paid.So they live in Florida maintain an address in Ohio so they can vote here and screw everyone who IS paying our fair share. Oh and least we forget they are terrified of loosing their precious government subsidies because they have one cow, or one sheep, or some such nonsense. These are what probably paid for their Florida condo.The taxes the rest of us have to pay more of because someone has to make up for them not paying theirs!

[wvbygod]

38. If I'm the last family member and want to sell my big home to retire

And use the money to live my life out I can not see how it would be fair for me to possibly
have to give half the money as taxes. That is pure evil and wrong in so many ways.

Let's say I have a $500,000 home + land that I have worked all my life and I want to sell it
so I can see the world now. You want me to give a huge amount of what I built to the
damn government? I'm the last family member and have never sold a home. Screw that noise.

[madmom]

39. So why should I have to pay more taxes because your previous family members didn't?

Don't complain to the innocent folks complain to your family members who failed to pay their fare share and stuck you holding the bag.It is more evil and wrong in so many ways to slime your way out of paying your taxes and make your descendent's owe and then they cry because it's not fair. Sounds so bush like!

[wvbygod]

41. BS. My family did not pay what taxes?

The land and house have been in the family for 100 years. All property taxes have been paid over the years.

Exactly what taxes have not been paid on this land and house?

[doc03]

42. Where I live in SE Ohio real estate taxes are ridiculously

low on farm land. George Washington granted a large part of SE Ohio where I live to Ebeneezer Zane as payment for his service in the Revolutionary War. This land was granted to the settlers back in the early 1800's and has remained in the same families for generations many never paid a cent for them. The same is true for other parts of the state.

on edit: Those land owners are all staunch Republicons.

[BigD_95]

30. I hate to say it

but I live in York, PA and there are a lot of McCain signs. This is a big Republican area.


The good news is, I seen more Obama signs around then in a normal election for a Dem.

[benEzra]

31. Guns, particularly nonhunting guns.

80% of U.S. gun owners are nonhunters, and the DLC since 1994 has put new bans on the most popular nonhunting guns near the top of the legislative priority list.

Background on the issue, if you're interested:

Dems and the Gun Issue - Now What? (written in '04, largely vindicated in '06, IMO)

[jody]

43. Sad that we pro-RKBA DUers could have done so much to educate the anti-gun group since Kerry lost in

2004. That's difficult if our voices are muffled.

IMO it's unthinkable for anyone interested in getting in the face of a gun-owner and trying to convince her/him that their candidate will not take guns when reinstating the AWB targets semiautomatic firearms and does precisely that.

Here we are, in the closing days of the election, with swing states FL, PA, OH, MI and their 85 electoral votes at stake, with representatives from over 70% of their 77 congressional districts rated "A" by GOA and "F" by Brady, and way too many Dems still believing assault weapons include AK-47's and the 2nd is about hunting.

That sage of the Okefenokee, said it best,

[jerryster]

32. They are usually close.

There is good and bad news here. The good news is that Florida is close. Obama wins it and McCain is almost surely toast.

The bad news is that Obama can't afford to lose Michigan. It has to stay in our column. On fivethirtyeight.com Nate Silver wrote that if Obama loses MI and OH his chances of winning the election are about 3%.

[WI_DEM]

34. they are called "battleground states" for a reason. They were all close in '00 & '04, too.

[Enthusiast]

35. I live in Ohio.

There is indeed a lot of racism. But early Rev. Wright propaganda was also very effective. Columbus talk radio has white men, especially young white men, thinking Obama is the worst human being this side of Osama Bin Ladin. I'm not kidding. The AM radio station 610-WTVN is nothing but hate radio. Shawn Hannity, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and others shape thinking for blue collar white men in the listening area. It is a very popular station. Most are convinced that Obama wants to take their guns away. Go to any construction site around Columbus when Limbaugh is on, the workers will be listening to this lying pig of a man.

Check this out. This is the 'off topic' forum for The Ohio State sports fans. Moderate to progressive voices are shouted down. http://forums.the-ozone.net/offtopic/index.pl

And here, another Ohio State sports fan off topic forum. http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=145&f=3159
Again, very little representation of the moderate to progressive perspective. You can get some idea what we are up against. I have argued myself blue in the face trying to inject some reason.

Propaganda works, folks. It isn't unique to Ohio. Rural men don't want anyone telling them they can't have guns. Of course Obama has suggested no such thing. But....................

[nini]

40. because those are the ones they'll try and steal

:shrug:

[dee15644]

45. age for one

I think a lot of it is that PA has an older population. They tend to listen to television for their news and particularly FOX. Plus, there is racism also. PA has some of the highest KKK membership in the US. Sad but true.

[NorthCarolina]

48. I suspect we are being fed bogus info that indicates the race is close

in order to lend credibility to a McCain win in contrast to exit polling which will lean heavily Obama. They will claim folks just couldn't bring themselves to vote for "the black man" once they stepped into the voting booth (anonymous bigotry). It will be pure BS of course, but hey...the Dems haven't done squat about the voting irregularities of the past three elections since they've been in power, so whose fault will it be?

[wvbygod]

49. The anonymous "they" strike again

The "they" get bigger and more powerful as the imagination wanders. I really don't see how
"they" can exist as such a powerful entity and keep "their" ruse running perfectly year to year.

The great and powerful "they" just does not exist and reality will always make its presence known.

[NorthCarolina]

50. the "They" are not anonymous, "They" are the MSM and their neo-conservative handlers

eom

[NJGeek]

51. American do not vote their interest ...

... they vote their fears.