Finally! An Indiana Pollster Calls Out The Rest of The Industry

[writes3000]

Remember that Indiana Selzer poll from earlier in the week that has Obama up 47% - 44%?

Here's what that pollster had to say about their methods and the results...

"This year has been a real challenge for pollsters," said pollster J. Ann Selzer of Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. "You can't just look at past elections to predict what will happen this year."

In past Indiana elections, Selzer said, black and young Hoosiers have not turned out to vote at a rate that reflects their share of the population. But this year, she said, the Barack Obama campaign appears to have energized those "hidden voters," making it critical that their opinions be included in polling. That's exactly what Selzer's firm did in conducting a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll that shows Obama with a narrow lead over John McCain in Indiana."

"In virtually every public opinion poll," Selzer noted, "young people and African-Americans are under-represented. They are harder to reach, and it is quite normal to weight data by age and race. It's the standard in the industry."

The article notes Selzer was the only pollster to correctly predict Obama's win in the Iowa caucus and also discusses a committee of which Selzer is a member to study the primary election polling errors.

[democrattotheend]

1. I'd rather pollsters air on the side of conservative when predicting turnout

I'd rather them stick with previous voters than risk overestimating turnout among new voters. That could lure Obama into spending money in places he shouldn't and set everyone up for disappointment. I'd rather the new voters be an extra boost than something we count on and factor into polling, especially because I am still worried that some of the so-called undecideds in these polls are people who just won't admit they don't want to vote for a black man.

[writes3000]

2. The Bradley effect makes no sense in this race. It's a myth.

If people don't want to vote for Obama they will have lots of reasons to say they won't.

The idea that people don't want to vote for him but are telling pollsters they will is just nonsensical.

[RollWithIt]

5. Actually, when you take a long look at his polling numbers, he is still being conservative.....

He only predicts a 15% increase in new voter registrants in that Indiana poll.

[LiberalFighter]

7. Correct word to use is err not air

[Dawgs]

24. Get over the Bradley Effect bullshit.

It's a non-issue, and shouldn't be discussed here.

[tanyev]

3. And when Obama does win, then the GOP will use all the inaccurate polls

to raise a major ruckus. Conveniently "forgetting" that they were dismissive of any Dem attempts to raise a ruckus in 2004 because all the polls that predicted a Kerry win were obviously inaccurate.

[SheilaT]

4. I keep on bringing

up the huge Democratic turnout in the primaries. I think a lot of those voters are still not being picked up by the polling.

[writes3000]

6. They can't be picked up because the polls weight their numbers based on 2004 turnout.

So if there's going to be a higher percentage of Dems voting this year, the weighting doesn't acknowledge it.

[SheilaT]

12. If you're right about the weighting,

and I'm right about the huge increase in Dems, maybe we will all be very pleasantly surprised on November 4th.

[LiberalFighter]

8. I heard Friday that there were 500,000 voter registrations here in Indiana.

[faithfulcitizen]

11. I heard that too! And only 4 million are registered in our entire state. Amazing.

[LiberalFighter]

18. Based on Elections Division 4,318,663 were registered at Primary Election date

1,725,951 voted or 40%

Almost 11% voted absentee.

[shrub chipper]

13. I have 5 new registrations

to turn in to the Terre Haute Obama campaign tomorrow.

I had an office meeting for our 80 employees on Friday and passed out Voter registration Forms .

got 5 sign ups.

[LiberalFighter]

17. You could verify online whether they are registered.

[AspenRose]

9. kick

:kick:

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I wish his stupid poll had more impact on the trading price

I'd love to wager much more on McCain to win Indiana at a bargain trading rate. Right now it's still 73-27. I got it at 60 previously.

That's a massive difference. Instead of -150, it's -270. For reference purposes, that's the same money line disparity as a 2.5 point favorite in a football game, compared to a 7 point favorite.

[Statistical]

15. So you think McCain will win IN? (n/t).

[agentS]

19. Without IN, he's toast

IN has what, 10 Electors or 11? It's gotta be double digits.

McCain's already in an uphill battle. Without IN, he would need to win both OH and FL and pray for NH to stand a chance.

Obama meanwhile can lose all 3, keep NH and gain CO, NM. He is likely to win both VA and MT. NC is a longshot but still too close to call.

[Doctor_J]

14. Young people & African Americans are being targeted for disenfranchisement

by the GOP. It's probably good that they're underrepresented in the polls, since most won't be allowed to vote.

[skooooo]

16. 500,000 newly registered voters in Indiana..

...according to the news the other day.

[I LIKE IKE 61]

20. #

Well the polls are not picking up a massive amount of cell phone users that have cut land lines or are hardly ever home to take a call from a poster. Some are working 2 jobs in "George Bushes America" just to make ends meet. Those people are mad and on election day they will be out in force! Believe it. Plenty of angry frustrated voters out there. They will not be polled but they will vote.

[magdalena]

21. I was thinking the same thing...

I haven't used a landline in nearly 8 years and can honestly say I do not personally know anyone under 30 that uses one for anything besides the internet. I don't know what kind of impact this might have on the polling, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was quite substantial.

[truthisfreedom]

22. MARK MY WORDS rOVE will find a way to supress the young vote. WATCH!

Over the next weeks, he'll be focused like there's no tomorrow on killing the kids' hopes.

[phrigndumass]

23. Selzer is one of the highest rated pollsters, if not the highest

Her accuracy rating is higher than that of Survey USA. I agree with her, and I've been tracking these underpolled voting blocs in my Saturday threads.

The African American turnout nationwide could boost Obama's numbers by as much as 2%, while the younger voter turnout could boost it by 1.5% (see chart below).

K+R!

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/174





.

[diva77]

25. where is the "accuracy rating" published ?- I've been searching for something

like this!

[salin]

26. Here in Indiana - I have not seen a single McCain bumper sticker

nor yard sign. Granted I spend my week in Indianapolis, and part of the weekend in Bloomington (big college town) - but even these areas there were a lot of Bush campaign stickers and signs - but not this time. It is a very interesting time in Indiana. No way to call it - but there is NO McCain momentum - and Obama is spending on airtime here.

[curious one]

27. The polls do not work or either show the true picture. All of the poll criteria has been changed

in this race. New types of voters have been injected into this race that pollsters do not know how to measure them or include them.