The Daily Widget – Mon 9/22 – O-278, M-260 – Weakening: Maine and Minnesota?

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Thirty-four new polls were released since Friday, but only two states moved into a different column, both to the right. Maine changes from Strong Obama to Weak Obama due to a Rasmussen poll showing Obama with only a 4-point lead, while Minnesota moves from Weak Obama to Lean Obama after ARG shows Obama leading by only 1 point.

Minnesota has been trending weaker for Obama since the republican convention, along with other states like Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Obama is still leading in all these except Nevada, but the key to winning this year seems to be keeping the blue states blue and picking up at least a couple more states. New polls this week will either turn these states around or confirm that they are weaker than we had originally thought. I hope it’s the former.

Here is how Minnesota has been polling since June 1:


Digging through the crosstabs from Rasmussen’s Maine poll, though, nothing seemed out of the ordinary at first. Men are slightly leaning toward McCain, and women are strongly leaning toward Obama. Conservatives support McCain, while moderates and liberals support Obama. Younger voters are strongly for Obama, while older voters are leaning to McCain.

And those who earn $40,000 or less are supporting one candidate while those who earn more than $40,000 are supporting the other candidate. But wait … double-take … Those lower income voters are supporting McCain while those who earn more are supporting Obama. What the … ?

Those between the ages of 30 to 39 are supporting McCain by 60% to 40%, and those who say cultural issues are the most important issues this year are supporting McCain 90% to 10%. The Very Favorables show Obama with 33%, McCain with 27%, Biden with 18%, and Palin with 38%. Rasmussen is weighting for Party ID, but they should also weight within the parties for a good mix of conservatives and moderates for republicans, and a good mix of moderates and progressives for Democrats.

This Maine poll seems to have been lopsided by a higher than average batch of lower-income, thirtysomething fundie whackjobs.

Here is how Maine has been polling this year:



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alabama Obama 25, McCain 52 (Press-Register, 9/15, +/- 5.0, 406 LV)
Alaska Obama 38, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California Obama 53, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Connecticut Obama 54, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 47 (St. Petersburg Times et al, 9/17, +/- 3.5, 800 RV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Idaho Obama 33, McCain 62 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 500 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 36 (Research 2000, 9/18, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 44, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 54, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 9/18, +/- 3.8, 702 LV)
Iowa Obama 53, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 44 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 37, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maine Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/17, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maryland Obama 54, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan Obama 52, McCain 43 (Marist College, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 550 LV)
Michigan Obama 43, McCain 42 (EPIC/MRA, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 48, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 49 (Research 2000, 9/18, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
North Carolina Obama 35, McCain 41, Undecided 24 (Elon University, 9/16, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 46, Barr 5 (Public Policy Polling, 9/19, +/- 3.0, 1060 LV)
North Dakota Obama 43, McCain 52 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Dakota Obama 40, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 45 (Marist College, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 550 LV)
Ohio Obama 42, McCain 48, Barr 1, Nader 4 (Univ of Cincinnati, 9/16, +/- 3.3, 869 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34, McCain 61 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 44 (Marist College, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 550 LV)
South Carolina Obama 45, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Tennessee Obama 36, McCain 59 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Washington Obama 50, McCain 44 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

[tekisui]

1. Obama's up in the Seventeen.

Gotta fine the good news. Those Minnesotans and Mainers will come around. They are practical people up in the cold country.

Morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. You're right! :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[MadBadger]

2. North Carolina's movin from red to light red

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks to Bob Barr :)

I'd send Barr some money if I could afford it, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Off to work kick

:kick: Four days until the first debate!

[Schulzz]

6. Obama leads 52-44 in Minnesota in today's Rasmussen poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election

Maybe the tightening polls just showed a short bounce because of the RNC in St.Paul.

[grantcart]

9. good point

[phrigndumass]

16. Halle-freakin-lujah!

:woohoo: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

7. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Wow that Maine crosstab information! :crazy: I told you there was something funky about that poll.



:hi:

[phrigndumass]

17. Damn, missed my morning wave :)

Here it is anyway :hi: :hi: :bounce

The Maine poll must be full of data from the folks you saw over the weekend, lol

[Kukesa]

8. Ohio's still light red. We've got to work harder! n/t

[phrigndumass]

26. Blame grantcart :)

It's all grantcart's fault.

:hi:

[Demeter]

10. Good Morning P-Man

Those are some pretty amazing projection curves on Figs. 3a, 4a, and 6c. I'm going to hold you to them.

Obama came out against the Paulson-Bernanke Bailout Scam. It feels like shots have been fired on Fort Sumptuous, the start of a real Uncivil War between the classes. Well, the country was due for a house-cleaning, anyway.

[phrigndumass]

18. Obama-did-what? Terrific!!!

That's Fort Presumptuous he's tearing down, as in they presume they can take control of the country's assets without accountability!

Yep, forgot to mention the trendlines in the OP. They shouldn't be trusted beyond five days out. But the direction of the trendlines is real :)

I became tired of expanding the size of the charts manually once a week to fit the new data, so I went ahead and expanded them for the rest of the election.

:hi:

[PermanentRevolution]

11. Widget bump!

"Widget" is fun to say. Take a brief moment, wherever you are, and just say "widget" over and over for a few seconds.

See? How much fun is that?

[fight4my3sons]

12. widget, widget, widget

you're right, can't get much more fun than that!


:hi:

[PermanentRevolution]

14. Try it to the Batman theme song...

The Adam West one, from the '60's

[grantcart]

13. what a difference a day makes

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7144714

Not only are alot of states up if you look at the cross tabs it is all good.

Too many similar results in too many states for it not to be really good news.

The national poll will have to show another big bump soon.

[phrigndumass]

20. Nice thread!

Can you do one with 70 polls? lol ... kidding :D

I haven't looked at today's polls yet, but I could use some good news for the Midwest. Just reading through the list of polls in your post made me feel more at ease. Thanks!

National polls (updated yesterday):

[WI_DEM]

15. wasn't there a poll out today giving Obama a double digit lead in MN?

[phrigndumass]

21. Haven't looked yet, but that would be terrific! :)

Now if we can just see a poll like that for Wisconsin ... :D

:hi:

[WritingIsMyReligion]

19. Haven't seen many McCain stickers here in Maine.

This is Greater Portland, though...maybe the upstaters are more gung-ho about McSame/Failin'. Dunno, though. I would be surprised if the state actually flopped, or came very close to flopping, to red.

[phrigndumass]

23. I would be surprised as well :)

The Rasmussen poll for Maine is what I refer to as a lolpoll :D

[WritingIsMyReligion]

25. Yes, it's a little cracktastic, in my opinion. :>)

I'm not in the least alarmed at this point. :D

[GreenPartyVoter]

32. Seen a couple signs and a sticker, I think, around the Ellsworth area.

[RiverStone]

22. I can't believe any state would move right this year!

Alas, some folks walk around with eyes wide shut! Or asleep. :boring:

At least the poll of polls via CNN keep showing Obama with a popular vote lead. It would seem if he maintains that, and an EC lead - he will be in damn good shape come 11/4.

Thanks for keeping us posted P! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

24. Me neither, and so far we're holding on to Kerry's states

I just hate it when it gets close like that in the blue states.

Thanks! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

27. Claim the 5th rec and you'll get a prize ...

mmmmmm ... gigantic cheeseburger!

[PermanentRevolution]

28. Gimmie gimmie gimmie!

Which, incidentally, is almost as fun to say as "widget"...

[phrigndumass]

29. LOL! Someone should invent a Widget Burger :)

Thanks! :hi:

[grantcart]

30. I have to say tat the Wigand Electoral Average gives the best day to day read

of what is going it is flexible, fluid and representative of the bigger picture.

[phrigndumass]

31. It's the perfect mix of trading and polling, imo

Not an objective opinion, lol ... but it was definitely a great idea on your part! I'm really surprised nobody else thought of it this year, or even created something similar to it. Whether the trading and polling numbers are far apart or close together, the WEA Index is right there with them.

We are still using the Fixed 12 with a variable base. If we were using a Variable set of states with a variable base, it would still be very similar to the graph below. (btw, ignore the trend line beyond five days out)