Diageo/Hotline Tracking 9/23: Obama 47%, McCain 42%

[writes3000]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. That's A Bit Counterintuitive But It Looks Nice

~

[Zynx]

3. ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Because

Because Hotline was showing a contracting Obama lead when "everybody" else was showing an expanding Obama lead, now they are showing an expanding lead when "everybody" else is showing a contracting Obama lead...


Maybe it's just noise as the numbers bounce around within the MOE...

[Brotherjohn]

10. I think it's the "noise" you mention. Unquestionably, most polls have shown Obama pulling out ...

... to a few point lead (about 1-6) lately... RealClear Politics average = 2%, CNN Poll of Polls = 3%. All of the polls are never going to completely mirror each other. But consider that Diageo may have been at the low end of it's MOE, and now it's "correcting" itself.

[Zynx]

11. Do you really pay attention to 1 and 2 point moves?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. It Went Fron 45-44 To 47-42

That's significant.

[Zynx]

13. I was referring to the moves in Gallup and R2000.

[Brotherjohn]

8. Not really. I think I see what you mean (other polls ~ stable). But this brings Diageo more in line

... with Gallup and Research 2000's Daily Tracking numbers.

Rasmussen's the only one that's remaining more or less a dead heat now. The GWU Battleground poll isn't taken every day, it seems (?), and is spread over more days when it is reported (thus blunting anyone's lead).
http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup

[bluestateguy]

2. Boo yah

Obama has to get all of his suppoters to vote early in Virginia, lest they have time to change their minds or be swayed by GOP negative ads.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Big Bounce for the Good Guy! Obama +2, McCurmudgeon - 2 since yesterday.

:woohoo:

[Schulzz]

5. Seems like McCain just had a single good day in their polls last week

This day dropped out today, and Obama regained his 5 point lead.

[featherman]

6. Stunning result: This poll was only 45-44 Obama Thursday and Friday

[Teaser]

7. Clearly, McCain had a large 1 day sample drop out

This poll is more susceptible to that, because it uses a small sample size (300 interviews) for each day than do the other trackers.