Charlie(FAT BOY)Cook: Obama has so much DISADVANTAGES in Florida

[bigdarryl]

OH YEAH!!! don't bet on it Obama just might pull it off there does anyone know what the GOTV situation is there?

[graywarrior]

1. Only thing I know is from my campaign office telling me that the

ground is saturated with Obama staff in Florida.

[bluestateguy]

2. Win one of these three states and McCain is finished: Ohio, Florida or Virginia

Right now Virginia looks most promising. But Obama cannot afford to throw up his hands and write off Florida because that would free up McCain's campaign resources to then be used in other states.

[featherman]

3. Didn't hear Charlie but he's right about the disadvantages which Obama must overcome

First I do believe Obama has a good chance in FL but:

- GOP controls the state government and voting apparatus
- oldest state in the union in terms of voting population age. McCain polls better on average with +60
- Florida's Hispanic mix (large Cuban % has been traditional GOP) lessens Obama's edge with Hispanics that is shown elsewhere
- large evangelical percentage especially in Panhandle and central
- older Jewish voters in SE FL are less enthusiastic about the "young fella" than a more traditional Dem. Hopefully Biden helps there.

On the plus side:
-good sized AA population and recent immigrants are largely Dem

[Arugula Latte]

5. We need to spread the word far and wide about Palin's antisimetic church

[Jennicut]

4. The only disadvantage he has is the corruption of the GOP in FL.