Why it'll be very hard for Obama to lose this election.

Drunken Irishman

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Mon Sep-22-08 02:27 PM
Original message

Why it'll be very hard for Obama to lose this election.

Edited on Mon Sep-22-08 02:31 PM by Drunken Irishman

The media doesn't want to talk about it, some DUers ignore it, but Obama is in a position neither Kerry or Gore were in four and eight years ago. He's facing many paths to victory, which means he has room for error, something Kerry and Gore had little of.

In 2004, the Kerry plan was to either win Florida or Ohio and win the election that way. Yes, had he carried either, he would be running for re-election, however, it was also a very high risk plan, because if he lost both, as he did, it meant there were limited options available, especially since the campaign really focused hard on these two states. What we're seeing from Obama, however, is a campaign that has charted a few more realistic courses to victory and because of this, I believe it will be very difficult for Obama to lose the general election.

The big advantage Obama has on Kerry right now is Iowa. Kerry could never lock down the state and because of that, could not count on their seven electoral votes. Yes, that isn't many, but when put in the context of the 2008 election, it is.

So Obama automatically starts +7 from where Kerry was in 2004 if he wins all of Kerry's states, which I think is likely.

Path One:

This is no different than Kerry's first path in 2004, win Ohio and win the election. If Obama carries Ohio, he wins. It doesn't matter what he does in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado or Nevada.

This is a scenario that is possible, but I wouldn't bank on it just yet.

Path Two:

Again, this path is no different than Kerry's in 2004. Win Florida and win the election. Obama wins Florida and loses every other state I mentioned above and it's over. He wins the election.

Path Three:

This is where Obama's path differs from Kerry. Kerry had a problem in the west, as he never consistently held the lead over Bush in 2004 and when he did, it was often narrow. In fact, this day in 2004, electoral-vote.com had Kerry narrowly losing to Bush in both New Mexico and Colorado, while Iowa was solidly tilting toward the president. That meant path three really wasn't there. However, if Obama just wins Colorado & New Mexico -- both states he holds solid leads in -- he wins with 273 electoral votes. This is probably the most likely and easiest path to victory, since I don't foresee Obama losing either state.

Path Four:

Kerry didn't have this path to victory because Iowa was leaning Bush and so was Virginia. However, if you believe the most recent polls, Obama wins in both. Now remember, I'm counting Iowa as safe Obama, so all he would need was Virginia and he'd win with 272 electoral votes. A narrow victory, yes, but that doesn't include Colorado & New Mexico, two states where Obama has strong leads in and it doesn't count Florida or Ohio, two states that very well could break for Obama.

Path Five:

Missouri. It's unlikely, as Missouri really hasn't seen dramatic movement in the polls, but if Obama carries Missouri, loses all the other states mentioned, he still wins. It's close, as he wins with 270 electoral votes, the exact needed, but it's a victory. Less likely than the others mentioned, but again, a realistic path to victory that eluded Kerry in 2004.

Path Six:

This is a path that actually is increasingly becoming more and more possible for Obama. It's Indiana and if Obama just wins Indiana, while losing all those other swing states that Bush carried in 2004, he wins the election with 270 electoral votes. It's the same amount as Path Five, but a victory regardless. With the polls showing a very tight race, it's possible this path to victory is attained by Obama.

Path Seven:

This path is very similar to path three, except it's Nevada & Colorado, instead of New Mexico & Colorado. Both New Mexico and Nevada have the same amount of electoral votes, so the change here wouldn't be any different, but it would be enough to push Obama over the top.

Path Eight:

This path was an early option for Kerry, which is why he chose Edwards, but it looked less likely as the race progressed, as this time four years ago, electoral-vote.com had Bush with a double-digit lead over Kerry in their average of polls. This time, though, North Carolina is a very close race and could be decided by a few points. If Obama wins, without carrying any other swing state that went Bush in '04, he wins.

And there you have it, Obama's eight paths to victory. They're all narrow, but it gets him to the White House. Each option is vastly different than the next, but an option Kerry didn't have in 2004 and because of that, it left us banking a lot on two states that historically lean Republican. This time, though, that won't happen. Even if Obama loses both Florida and Ohio, he's doing so well in Colorado and New Mexico, he'd win the election anyway.

With that said, I still believe we'll see a mix of these results. I would not be surprised if Obama carried Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Ohio for a pretty comfortable win. But if it is close, the paths to victory are there where all hope won't be lost if he doesn't carry Ohio or Florida, like it was with Kerry in '04 and Gore in 2000.

Remember, if Kerry had just won Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, he'd have won. But the polls in those states never really broke for him and while they each ended up extremely close, they were still losses.