Clarification?: Who wins the presidency in a 269-269 tie?

[Politics_Guy25]

Democrats control the congress of course and a majority of state delegations. However, I have read that the democratic reps will have to vote whichever way that their state votes or else face ire. If you could clear this up for me, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!

[Eric J in MN]

1. A post at Daily Kos concluded Obama would win in a tie.

I don't have a link.

[AzNick]

2. Congress due to the balance of powers

Source? My ass.

But that's my feeling.

[tekisui]

3. Each state gets one vote,

based on that scenario. And the vote is cast by the party that is in the majority in each state, based on representation in the House.

Dems have the majority of the majorities. Two states are ties, and the Dems have 26 or 27. The winning candidate has to receive 26 votes. We got it.

[endthewar]

32. Link please?

Does this even make sense to you? By the way, how many states are there? Also, what if a state is tied?

P.S. See post #31 for the REAL answer.

[tekisui]

42. There are 50 states.

In the House, each state gets one vote. A majority must chose a candidate to elect, or 26.

The delegate, or voter, for each state in the House is determined by the party in the majority in that state. In other words, if a state has 12 House reps, 8 Dems and 4 pukes, a Dem will cast the vote for that state.

The Dems have majorities in 27 states, two states are tied, and would likely abstain, and 21 are pukes majority.



Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session "immediately" to vote for President if no candidate for President receives a majority (270 votes) of the 538 electoral votes.

In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has a single vote. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of state votes (currently 26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a President.

The House of Representatives has chosen the President only twice: once under Article II, Section 1, Clause 3 (in 1801) and once under the Twelfth Amendment (in 1825).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Electoral_College

[Egnever]

4. Lee Mercer!

[NoPasaran]

44. All three!

[Secret_Society]

5. House votes as delegations for President, Senate votes for VP as individuals

[DCBob]

6. It's more complicated than one would think. But in the end most think Obama would still win.

Fingers x'd!

[lutherj]

7. According to Wikipedia

Each elector casts one vote for President and one vote for Vice President. In order to be elected, a candidate must have a majority (at least 270) of the electoral votes cast for that office. Should no candidate for President win a majority of the electoral votes, the choice is referred to the House of Representatives.<5> Should no candidate for Vice President possess a majority of the electoral votes, the choice is given to the Senate.<[br />

So Obama would win a tie. As for Biden, it would depend on Lieberman.

[carpetbagger]

11. It would be the new Senate.

Lieberman can go Cheney himself.

[lutherj]

18. Thank God. Can you imagine an Obama/Palin administration?

[Hamlette]

17. it is the new House and Senate. The one elected this year so hopefully we will have more than 51

senators.

[polmaven]

24. Exactly...

Thank you, Hamlette...It would be the Congress that is elected in November making the decisions. All conventional wisdom says the Senate Democrats will gain.

[mwooldri]

36. Lieberman's influence will probably be counted out in a 269-269.

We're projected to win at least 2 Senate seats. If we get that and the Democratic caucus votes lock-step then it doesn't matter what Loserman votes.

Plus... Biden is running for Senate as well as VP... and he'll probably retain his seat anyway. So... that's one sure fire vote...

Also it could get "personal". Biden will be in the Senate. Failin's default job will be the "figurehead" of Alaska. But it's the Senators that get to vote... vote for someone they're going to have to bump into and ask for favours occasionally? Or vote for someone who should in theory have enough to do in their home state?

As for Obama/McSame in the House... well that one depends on a) the Democratic Party not losing any seats and hopefully picking up some, and b) the Democratic Party voting lock-step with each other. If a) and b) can be counted on then it's an Obama win. If we lose seats it will be where we lose seats that matters. If we say lost a seat in NC, then that'll be a vote for McSame because NC presently has 7 Dems and 6 Repukes. If we lost a seat in CA then it wouldn't matter so much. NC has a couple of races that are "too close to call" (one's a replay of 2006) but the incumbent is a Repuke not a Dem so it still favours us.

Because of this, I can't predict Obama with dead certainty in the event of a 269-269 tie but I will definitely predict a VP Biden in this scenario.

However having said all that, let's just make sure we get 270 or more. 300+ would be real sweet.

Mark.

[crankychatter]

38. does that mean an "Obama-Palin" White House is possible? nt

[slackmaster]

40. Misfiled

Grrrr.

[CharmCity]

8. Obama.

The House picks the Pres and the Senate picks the VP.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepoliticalsystem/a/electiontie.htm

[babylonsister]

9. Funny you should ask-from today:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/the-electoral-tie-scenarios.html

The Electoral Tie Scenario(s)

By Craig Crawford | September 22, 2008 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (225)

Just a few clicks of the map on the CQ Politics Electoral Scenario Builder and you quickly get to a 269-269 tie. I've found at least eight reasonably possible breakdowns where that occurs, but perhaps the most likely is to give Democrat Barack Obama the states won by his party's 2004 nominee, John Kerry, and add Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.

The worst thing about an Electoral tie would be having to dust off one of the Constitution's most confusing passages -- a provision of the 12th Amendment. On the surface it seems easy enough. The House picks the president, so Obama wins since Democrats control, right?

Not so fast. The House balloting under the 12 Amendment is one vote per state (resulting in the horribly disproportionate scenario where Wyoming and California carry equal weight).

Obama still should have the advantage in a House tally of state delegations. In its current configuration (and assuming a strict party-line vote), the House would award 28 votes to Obama and 21 to GOP nominee John McCain. Two states are evenly split by party, presumably resulting in a tie. And the District of Columbia gets to vote.

But the incoming House would likely be the decider (the 12th Amendment is not entirely clear on this point) and we don't know what the party breakdown will be until after the election. Although a good guess will be that Democrats gain seats.

So it appears that an Electoral tie goes to Obama -- unless the McCain team figures out a way to have the Supreme Court pick another president.

[Politics_Guy25]

10. thanks babylonsister-that clarifies it for me:)

[Mojambo]

12. "unless the McCain team figures out a way to have the Supreme Court pick another president."

And don't think they wouldn't try...

[jerryster]

13. Yep.

Here's my cynical, sarcastic scenario of the Republican response. They will go to court and challenge the constitutionality of any outcome they foresee giving Obama the win. It will go all the way to the Supreme Court and they will lose. However, it won't be 9-0. Scalia and Thomas,at least, who both have long ago given up any pretense of considering the law, will simply side with whichever position helps their candidate.

[babylonsister]

14. I sincerely doubt it will be close enough for them to do it. Obama

is going to out vote mcbush so much! The debates will tell the tale.

[Orangepeel]

15. I don't see how it isn't clear. The new congress is in sesson when the electoral votes are counted

so it has to be the incoming House.

[RagAss]

16. It defaults to Otis....

[central scrutinizer]

19. Don't forget the Omaha strategy

Nebraska and one other state split their electoral votes based upon the Congressional boundaries. Omaha has a large African American population and tends to vote Democratic. Don't automatically throw all of Nebraska's electoral votes into the red column. I have read that Obama is working hard in Omaha, which contains most of the population in that congressional district.

[davidpdx]

43. From Wikipedia

Congressional District Method

The Congressional District Method (a.k.a., Maine-Nebraska Method) is an alternative way of distributing electoral votes within a state. In the winner take all system the popular vote winner of the statewide vote receives all of that state’s electoral votes. In the Congressional District Method the Electoral votes are distributed based on the popular vote winner of each of the state’s individual congressional districts, with the statewide popular vote winner receiving two additional electoral votes.<28>

The number of electoral votes allocated to each state is equal to the number of representatives the state has in the Congress.<29> The two votes that a candidate receives for winning the statewide popular vote come from the two electoral votes that each state receives from the members in the Senate to which each state is entitled. The other electoral votes that a state has come from the respective number of members of the House of Representatives to which each state is entitled.

Currently only two states, Maine and Nebraska, use the Congressional District Method for distributing their electoral votes. Maine has four electoral votes based on its two Representatives and two Senators. In Nebraska there are two Senators and three Representatives giving it five electoral votes.<30>

The Congressional District Method was first used by Massachusetts in the elections of 1804, 1812, and 1820. After seceding from Massachusetts, Maine used this method through the election of 1828.<31> Maine resumed using the Congressional District Method in the election of 1972. Nebraska has used the Congressional District Method since the election of 1992.<32><33>

The Congressional District Method allows for the chance for states to split their electoral vote between multiple candidates. However, even though Maine and Nebraska have been using the method for twenty-six and sixteen years respectively neither has ever split their electoral, probably because of the small number of electoral districts.<28> Therefore, if states with more congressional representatives used this method, more frequent split electoral votes would likely occur.

The Congressional District Method is closer to one man, one vote than the current winner take all system, because an individual's vote has a larger weight to it.<34> In addition, the Congressional District Method can be more easily implemented than other alternatives to the winner take all method. Each state only has to pass legislation in order to use the new method, instead of having to pass a constitutional amendment like some other Electoral College reform options.<34> The Congressional District Method has its benefits, but there are also criticisms of it. For instance, candidates might only spend time in certain battleground districts instead of the entire state, and cases of gerrymandering could arise with political parties trying to draw up as many safe districts as they can.<35>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

[tritsofme]

20. I don't think we should automatically assume an Obama win in the House.

McCain will more than likely win a larger number of states than Obama, even if Obama wins decisively in the EC.

Many of these states that McCain will win may have a majority Democratic House delegation, and they will come under extreme pressure to vote "the will of the people" in that state, and cast their state's vote for McCain.

I haven't seen this discussed elsewhere, but I can only imagine this is what we would be hearing about should this situation play out.

I doubt the Republicans will go gentle into that good night.

[LiberadorHugo]

26. If Obama wins the popular vote and Democrats still betray him...

Shoot the fucking traitors.

[tritsofme]

30. I think it will be hard for the House to vote against the winner of the popular vote.

That's probably who ends up winning in the House.

[IndianaGreen]

21. Each state in the House gets one vote, while the Senate votes for VP

If there is a tie vote in the Congressional delegation, then the state's vote doesn't count. The Constitution is quite clear that the Congress is free to vote whichever way they choose. I expect some blue dog Democrats to vote for McCain.

[misskittysister]

33. "kosher" bumper sticker

How can I get a Hebrew bumper sticker like the one shown here? Thanks!

[IndianaGreen]

34. Obama store

I got one on my car!

http://store.barackobama.com/

[progressiveforever]

22. Certainly everything you said is true, but there is always ire

If we lost a 269-269, I'd be full of ire no matter how fair or unfair.

[ShadowLiberal]

23. Obama, though 2, possibly 3, dem reps could vote republican, 1 repub could vote dem

ND, SD, and Alaska all have one representative, in ND and SD it's already a democrat, and given the massive margin of victory republicans win there, and in Alaska, any democrat would face a difficult choice there on who to vote for.

Of those representatives the ND one has been in congress for over a decade, and won't easily be pressured into voting our way by fellow democrats controlling the house.

The SD representative is a two term representative, and the almost certain to be democrat from Alaska would have their first vote on who the next president is. Those two will likely face much greater pressure from fellow democrats to vote their way.

There is one republican who's the sole vote of a blue state that may vote against his party as well. The Delaware representative, from Biden's home state, is a republican who's in his 70's and has been in the house for a few decades I think, he's also a moderate. Having a fellow Delaware resident on the ticket would add a unique pressure on him to support the home state ticket, and Biden's relationship with the guy as a fellow Delawarer could also help.

But there's other states that could change hands for who controls the vote. Among them, Arizona, McCain's home state, currently it's a 4-4 split. One of the republicans however is in trouble for corruption, and I think isn't running again, with the democrats favored to pick up his seat and get a 5-3 advantage, it's very likely that McCain's home state could vote against him becoming president in a tie.

There's a number of other states that could potentially change their votes. I think like 6 to 8 states are likely to turn to a democrat vote, a few states are likely to turn to deadlock situations where the state won't cast a vote. I think there's one state where it's likely that the GOP pick up a vote (from a tie or a democrat vote I forget), there's also another situation in which the GOP is likely to turn a democrat vote into a tie vote I believe.

Overall though, an analysis posted a few weeks ago on the subject at electoralvote.com concluded that Obama would very likely win by something between 26 to 34 votes (with 26 being the most pessimistic realistic situation, and 34 being the most optimistic realistic situation).

[RoadRage]

25. Nancy Pelosi...

There were a couple of articles floating around that indicated that it would be slightly possible that Pelosi could wind up as the President until something was figured out in the House or Senate in the case of a tie.

Now that would unite Hillary & Palin in their misery, eh?

[Clio the Leo]

27. No one ..........

..... even if Obama was elected we'd lose the moral victory of a decisive win. And we'd have to hear the Repubs whine about it for the next four years, giving them even MORE incentive to get Palin elected in 2012.

All the more motivation to keep working hard.

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. The notion that the Democrats wouldn't vote unanimously for Obama

is so knuckleheaded that it doesn't bear mention. They'd face the ire TWO fucking years from then in order to be working with a Democratic President.

Fucking duh.

[DefenseLawyer]

29. We're going to win Omaha

and break the tie.

[demwing]

37. I've pondered that, silently, to myself...

thanks for giving the thought a voice.

[endthewar]

31. Congress decides. This is why 3rd parties never get much support.

If no candidate gets a majority of the electoral votes, then Congress decides who becomes President. Interestingly, this is how most political historians view how the founders wanted our elections to be. They didn't trust the people to make such an important choice. However, they never expected political parties to become as dominant as they have become in our country's 2-party system.

[Telly Savalas]

35. At that point it goes to penalty shots.

[No Elephants]

39. Email your rep and tell her or him how you want her or him to vote in the event of a tie! All

Reps of a state have to come up with one vote per state. No one knows now what will actually happen. However, there is a reason why the majority of a state's delegation is Democratic and they should honor that. Tell them NOW.

[slackmaster]

41. The candidates fight it out in Thunderdome

Two men enter, one man leave.