I think this past week gave Obama New Mexico...

[Wetzelbill]

Why is that important? Because it's a Bush state from 4 years ago. Obama looks to be a sure winner in Iowa too, another Bush state. That means if he holds all the Kerry states from 4 years ago, and picks up another Bush state, he'll win.

Of concern, Kerry states Pennsylvania and Michigan are a little too close for my taste, but he should still get them.

Traditional battle ground states Florida and Ohio are leaning slightly to McCain. If Obama picked up one of those, it's game over.

Nevada and North Carolina are virtually even. One of those would be an Obama win.

Virginia is leaning Obama right now, and has shown signs of opening up for him a little more, but we'll have to see after the debate this weekend just how sensitive that state is to McCain's foreign policy message in particular. If Obama wins here it's another game over situation. It doesn't hurt that popular Dems Senator Jim Webb and Governor Tim Kaine are Virginians too, and it especially helps that former Gov Mark Warner is running for Senate this year. That could carry Obama over. Also, remember Obama overperformed in Virginia in the primary, so that's very good for him.

However, the big state to watch right now is Colorado, another Bush state from 2004. It is trending Blue right now. I think this state could very well decide the race. If Obama looks like he's going to win Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa that gives him the White House. Right now, it looks good and it has for a few weeks now, even when McCain was peaking at his best. The trends point Obama's way and I think it's an uphill climb for McCain. I'm not sure this is quite the horserace it's made out to be, it's close, but still very tough for McCain.

[mb7588a]

1. You're right on,

and I've got a thread for you:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7150143

[Wetzelbill]

3. thanks for the link

I think Obama's turnout will be big. I don't buy the weighting methodology for the polls, they try to make it accurate but I think it's too iffy. With turnout this race might not be as close as it seems. Hard to tell at this point though. I also see people getting too excited over Colorado, that one poll with Obama up 10 should be looked on as an outlier, the rest of the polls are all close. Colorado does look ok, but you can't say based on that one poll that it's Obama's to win. Not yet.

[curious one]

2. Very good.

[Wetzelbill]

4. thank you very much

[Cha]

5. Thanks! I sure want Obama

to get the big beautiful Blue Sky of New Mexico!

[Wetzelbill]

6. that would be nice for sure

:)

[abumbyanyothername]

7. Here's my view:

Well here's a little overview of the map --

Firmly Obama -- CA, OR, WA, MN, IA, IL, NY, ME, MA, VT, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI, WI, NM = 222 Electoral Votes

Currently leaning significantly Obama -- CO, PA, MI, VA = 60 Electoral Votes.

In addition, Obama is spending nearly $40 million although significantly behind in FL, has a slight edge in OH and in NH. NV is a complete toss-up right now. Obama also has a legitimate shot at the Omaha, NE vote, as NE splits its EVs according to Congressional district.

If momentum really starts to build, that could tip states like NC, GA and MT.

There are a number of paths to an Obama victory. PA, MI, CO, +Omaha (or if it goes to the house, Obama wins). FL, OH, +Omaha (again if it goes to the house, Obama wins).

On the McCain side, it seems like there is no scenario in which McCain has a reasonable shot if he loses FL, so he must defend there. He also almost certainly needs to hold OH and tip either PA, MI or CO. A tie won't help McCain, and the Omaha EV could become important.

The map could change after the debates but I don't anticipate that the debates will help McCain. I could be wrong.

[Wetzelbill]

8. I think the McCain camp has made a mistake on the debates

Historically a Republican plays down debating skills, because it lowers expectations, like Bush vs Gore. So that even if the R sucks it up, no matter what he will exceed expectations. But McCain has made such a big deal of these town hall meetings and how Obama didn't want them that he's puffed up his own debating abilities. He crows about those town halls and about his experience, while Obama is supposed to have ducked him and supposedly has no experience. Then McCain's big poll edges are leadership ability, experience, and national security. Just by showing up and looking presidential Obama cuts into that because he at least looks like McCain's peer.

However, two big things here. McCain is a poor debater. I'm not sure where he gets off thinking he's that good, I've watched some of those town halls and rambling on in front of a crowd of Kool Aid drinkers is not the same as being in a debate with somebody who has stark differences than you and who looks much younger and vital too. And the second thing is Obama's camp has been lowering expectations! It's brilliant. In that NY Times article about their negotiations Obama's camp was saying things like Barack isn't comfortable in debates, not like he is giving speeches and campaigning etc. Effing brilliant! So by the time Barack shows up, he just has to look good and he exceeds expectations. Plus everybody thinks McCain is some kind of foreign policy whiz when the guy can barely remember the most basic aspects of any of it. It's just bad, his campaign is poorly run like that. I think they all, including himself, have an inflated sense of his abilities.

[AzNick]

11. I see a big big fight in Florida too

Spending $39 million is not a waste. This is where we can outspend them.

Many minorities and I truly believe the Jewish voters, who are more educated than the average, will vote Obama.

This is Verdun: the first who runs out of resources is likely to lose, but in the end it's the one who really wants it who will win.

The Clintons and Biden can help, but Obama needs to show in Florida and truly show that he wants to be their president and not just say "I need your electoral college votes".

We need to flood the polls, so whoever lives in Florida, motivate everyone.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. I think Obama has Colorado almost in the bag

And by that I mean the only way McSame could take Colorado is if he wins by a comfortable margin. I have seen maybe one poll the entire race showing McSame up in Colorado.

Michigan is also starting to break away for Obama leaving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to be the only two states he really has to defend.

And finally McSame is up in Florida but I think Ohio is statistically tied. The averages may be close like they are for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but the difference is that all of the recent polls show Obama leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania even if it is a little bit. Ohio has some polls showing Obama up and some showing McSame up which means that while McSame may have an ever so slight advantage, it's not much of one.

Lets also not forget that Kerry and Edwards basically camped out in Ohio from the convention to election day and so we shouldn't put too much stock into the fact that the polls may have looked a little better for them at one point or another.

[Wetzelbill]

10. all the ones I'm looking at on Colorado

have been basically split even between the two. McCain has been slightly ahead in 3 out of the last 5, but the one that came out today had Obama up by 10. That should be viewed with a grain of salt right now until others come in, then we'll have a better idea.

Florida is up around 5 consistently for McCain and the ones I'm looking at right now have McCain consistently up a few in Ohio. And Obama is consistently up a few points in PA and Wisconsin.