1. ANALYSISNote: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.Eighteen new state polls were released yesterday for 14 different states. Only three states moved between columns today, all to the left: North Carolina changed from Weak McCain to Lean McCain, Michigan moved out of the margin of error from Lean Obama to Weak Obama, and Virginia switched sides from Lean McCain to Lean Obama. Yet while all these states are beginning to poll stronger for Obama, New Hampshire is going against the flow like salmon. Regardless, Barack Obama gained 27 electoral votes since yesterday and now leads John McCain 305 to 233.
Virginia switches sides for the third time in a week, as two new polls show Obama leading there by 6 points. Obama trailed McCain on average yesterday by -0.8 points, but the new polls move Virginia 1.4 points to the left and show Obama now leading McCain on average by +0.6 points.
Foxmussen shows Obama leading in Michigan by 7 points now, and Obama’s average lead there moves 1.7 points to the left. The big winner today, though, is North Carolina, which moves 5.0 points to the left after RNC bounce polls from a couple weeks ago fell off the radar and two new polls show Obama either tied or trailing only slightly. Obama now trails McCain on average by -2.6 points in North Carolina.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire keeps inching closer to McCain as a new poll from the University of New Hampshire shows McCain leading Obama by 2 points there. ARG had shown McCain with a 3-point lead in New Hampshire a few days ago. Obama was leading in New Hampshire on average by +6 points last week, but now his average lead has diminished to +0.3 points and is on the verge of tipping red.
In the popular vote, Obama continues to gain on McCain as old polls fall off and are replaced with new polls showing Obama with stronger numbers. McCain’s lead in the popular vote has now shrunk to a half-point over Obama. Also, both sets of swing states close about one percent higher in trading for Obama today.
2. NEW STATE POLLSScale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)
Florida
Obama 46, McCain 51 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Georgia
Obama 39, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan
Obama 51, McCain 44 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota
Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada
Obama 45, McCain 46 (Suffolk University, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire
Obama 45, McCain 47 (University of New Hampshire, 9/17, +/- 4.4, 516 LV)
New Jersey
Obama 51, McCain 42 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Mexico
Obama 53, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 9/19, +/- 3.0, 1037 LV)
North Carolina
Obama 47, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina
Obama 45, McCain 45 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio
Obama 46, McCain 50 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/18, +/- 3.9, 625 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 48, McCain 45 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
South Dakota
Obama 39, McCain 55 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia
Obama 51, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 9/21, +/- 3.7, 716 LV)
Virginia
Obama 50, McCain 44 (ABC News/Washington Post, 9/21, +/- 3.5, 857 RV)
Virginia
Obama 48, McCain 50 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin
Obama 50, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT
^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.
^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)
^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.
4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT
^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.
^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN
^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.
^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.
^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE
^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.
^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.
^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).
^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information 7. LINKS AND SOURCESYesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingSaturday Data DumpPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes
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