My view of the battleground states.... feel free to contradict

[scheming daemons]

New Hampshire:

McCain is more popular there than most Republicans. This a state that is "light blue", but I think they really dig McCain there. I think McCain ekes out a narrow win.

Pennsylvania:

I live here. I think the turnout in Philly and surrounding suburbs will break records. Obama will win the Philly area by 600,000 votes. Obama will win the Pittsburgh area by less than 100,000 votes (lots of NRA types in the counties surrounding Pittsburgh). McCain will win the "T" by 500,000 votes. Obama will win PA by a comfortable 200,000-vote margin.

Ohio:

The Ohio secretary of state was a Republican in 2004, and is now a Democrat. This makes all the difference. The shenanigans of Ohio in 2004 will NOT be repeated. And frankly, Ohio is hurting much more economically this time around. I think Obama ekes out a narrow win.

Virginia:

The polls are tilting our way there... and recently, centrist Democrats have been able to win there. I think Obama comes VERY close to winning Virginia, but falls JUST short.

North Carolina:

Trending blue, and it will be MUCH closer than conventional wisdom would indicate. But McCain holds on.

Florida:

State is still run by Republicans... and they'll manage to purge the voter rolls JUST enough to deliver it for McCain.

Michigan:

Obama will win it comfortably. The turnout in the Detroit area will break records - similar to Philly. Obama will win by 5 or 6%.

Wisconsin:

Shouldn't even be considered a "battleground". Obama will win by 7 or 8%.

Iowa:

The state that first "accepted" Obama as a Presidential possibility. Neighbors Illinois, so they know him. Obama will win Iowa by 11 or 12%. Shouldn't be considered a "battleground" anymore.

Minnesota:

Easy Obama win. Not really a battleground anymore.

Colorado:

Holding the convention in Denver was a BRILLIANT stroke by Howard Dean and the DNC. The excitement in that state for Obama is incredibly high. This state turns blue.... Obama winning by about 80,000 votes.

New Mexico:

No longer a battleground. Gov. Richardson delivers a 10-point win for Obama.

Nevada:

McCain ekes out a 1% win in state neighboring his home state.

Missouri:

McCain wins by about 4%




Final score:

Obama 289
McCain 249

[thereismore]

I think NH goes blue and OH goes red. Otherwise agree. Obama still wins. nt

[mb7588a]

18. Agreed.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7150143

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Probably close, but I don't think McCain wins NH

And I think the big flip of the night will be VA.

Make it 306-232 and call it a night. I still say the projected winner picture appears on teevee as soon as the polls close in CA.

[southpaw]

2. Sounds pretty plausable

I'm thinking New Hampshire will go narrowly to Obama... but maybe that's just wishful thinking.

[dmallind]

One concern with OH

While systemic disenfranchisement is less likely sure, the problem remains the very slow voting machines, huge ballots (especially in cities) and lack of machines in inner city heavily Democratic precincts. There will I suspect still be very long waits especially with higher turnout.

We can only hope the vote early campaign is as successful as possible, or 8 hour waits may very well reoccur, and only/mostly in Obama friendly areas.

If all the voters get to vote and all teh votes get counted, I agree OH goes blue. Just not sure it's going to happen even with a Dem SoS.

I'm a bit more down on PA than you (more "bitter" types than I'd like) and a bit more up on FL (straight tossup down to GOTV IMO) than you, but doubt you're much off in any case.

[dmallind]

3. DUpe - Deleted

[MadBadger]

4. Let me tell you where I agree and disagree

1. I think Obama holds onto NH. Ive only seen that one poll showing him up and I dont trust it frankly. Obama wins there by 4%
2. Obama takes PA by 4-6 points
3. Obama comes close to Ohio, but ultimately loses by a couple points.
4. In virginia, Obama pulls away in the end and wins by 2 points
5. North Carolina isnt as blue as VA is trending, but will be in a few years. Obama loses to McCain by 2 points, but Kay Hagan beats Dole to knock her out of the senate
6. Florida goes to McCain by 3 points, though Obama puts up a strong effort
7. I agree with you on Michigan
8. I think Obama will win another tight battle in Wisconsin, though not as close as previous years. He takes the state by 3 points
9. Multiple polls give Obama a slight two point lead here. I think he extends it to five, but this is still a tight battleground state
10.Obama takes this former Red state by four points
11.New Mexico isnt a battleground state, but a safe Obama state that he takes 54-46.
12.Nevada and Missouri are both won slightly by McCain

Final Score: Obama 286, McCain 252

[BumRushDaShow]

5. For the first time in the 15 years that I have lived in my current voting division in Philly

the Committee people issued voter registration cards to every household to use for themselves or to sign-up a family member, friend, neighbor, or co-worker! :applause: They are serious here in Philly.

Also I note that your count depends on Ohio. That state makes me nervous unless there is a very high turnout from the many cities to offset the rural areas.... i.e., it seems that places like Cleveland under-produce. One of my brother-in-laws is from Dayton and he still has family there, and he said that most of his school and neighborhood friends have given up and left the state.

With respect to NH, although they seem to like what I call "the original McCain", I don't know how they feel about his VP pick and the ticket's sudden lurching to the far right... One thing about the "Live Free or Die" crowd is that they like independence but not some alternate version of oppression masked by the moniker of "independence". Which is why I noticed that McLame has tried to lurch himself back to sounding like he's in the middle in some of his speeches.

The rest of the states I tend to agree with (although am thinking that VA would probably go blue before NC). And I do hope Richardson keeps an eye on it because the state couldn't even handle the caucus turnout and more people tend to come out at GE time.

[LynneSin]

12. You signing up for campaigning in Philly - it's a great time for all

I have done so many in that state and have a great time each time.

They have a big party at the Warwick afterwards where we watch the returns.

You have got to know that Philly is going to be targetted by both parties. The republicans will do everything in their power to keep the voting numbers down and dems will do everything in their power to get every single democrat to the polls. Probably the biggest reason for success is unions like SEIU (which use their union office for co-ordination HQ) which will give all of their workers the day off in order to go out and round up voters. Their people will go to the regions in Philly that alot of volunteers may not want to go.

Philly is fun on election day - you have got to sign up for it!

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Except for parts of NE Philly and S. Philly, Philly shouldn't have any repuke problem.

The few Republicans here in the city continue to lose ground to the point where they are even talking about dropping one of the two set-aside and required Republican City Council seats. And as long as street $$$ is flowing (which I'm sure it will be "locally"), then there shouldn't be much hanky panky - maybe just the long lines type stuff. I look at the 2006 election that unseated Santorum as a guide for things to come!

[LynneSin]

19. The situation is 2-fold

First, republicans will send in the goons to hassle people at the polls and second of course, is getting the people out to vote.

In 2004 I worked in a district that was predominantly russian immigrants. I handed out voting material written in Russian to help some of these people vote. Republicans kept sending 'translators' that wanted to actually go with the voter into the voting booth. This was not anything necessary since there was already translation material available for those who spoke just Russian. But we had lawyers working with our team and about every hour a new 'translator' would show up saying they were to help with people in the voting booths and our people would chase them away.

[iceman66]

6. Very possible.

[mvd]

7. My take

New Hampshire:

The Kerry state I'm most concerned about. Are we really in that much danger here?

Pennsylvania:

No worries. Palin effect has worn off in the Philly suburbs.

Ohio:

I agree - Obama wins a close one

Virginia:

I actually think Obama wins VA by more than OH.

North Carolina:

Total toss-up IMO

Florida:

With shenanigans, this state is indeed a worry.

Michigan:

I agree - comfortable Obama win

Wisconsin:

Agree with you

Iowa:

Yep, a blow out for Obama in IA

Minnesota:

I think Obama wins comfortably, but not quite like IA

Colorado:

I am VERY optimistic about this state!

New Mexico:

Agreed

Nevada:

I agree; might be a very close McCain win

Missouri:

Agreed

West Virginia:

My sleeper addition. I still think this is a surprise Obama win.

[blue_onyx]

8. Well, agree with you about Michigan

I think Detroit will turn out in very high numbers for Obama. I'm actually guessing a little bigger win than you, 7-8%.

It's a littler harder for me to judge the other states since I know them less. But my prediction has been Obama will win by 329 vs. 209 electorally. Of the states you listed, I was giving Obama North Carolina and Nevada. Those may be more unlikely but I think Obama will have a strong win, not the close election most think will happen.

[Faygo Kid]

9. I think Virginia will actually go for Obama.

That may do it for him. Not confident of Ohio; I think you are right about the rest.

As of right now, of course. Good job. It may yet break wide open for Obama; I don't think McCain can win anything other than a squeaker.

[Terran]

10. I think Missouri will be closer

I heard just yesterday is that McCain has only a 10% lead among rural voters, and in Missouri they're the ones who tend to make or break a candidate. Both parties have said that a 10% lead isn't enough to give McCain a win. I don't know those numbers for just MO, but that news encouraged me because it's so much what elections here are about.

Also, the Dem running for Gov here has a double-digit lead over the pubbie. Not that that guarantees anything, but it's encouraging. I'm going for a narrow win for Obama here.

[LynneSin]

11. If I were that Secretary of State from Ohio here's what I would do...

One of the biggest issues with Ohio in 2004 was the lack of equipment in urban areas like Cleveland. This created long lines that frustrated voters and gave ample opportunities for voter harassment from the republicans which ultimately turned away a big chunk of predominantly democratic voting people.

I'm hoping that somewhere in storage, Ohio still has their old punchcard ballot machines. I would bring those out of storage and use them all in urban areas of Ohio - Cleveland. Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron, Canton and Youngstown (I probalby missed a few). I would make sure that they have large polling areas setup and have plenty of machines available at each polling location from the punchcard machines.

Then all those diebolds can go into the suburban & rural parts of the state that would probably vote republican anyways.

Then sometime before 2012 you get rid of those Diebolds and sue the company for fault machines and go back to punchcards.

[On the Road]

13. I Agree with All Your Calls

with the possible exception of NV, which I don't have a good feel for.

That's still a solid win for Obama. Great analysis.

[AndyTiedye]

14. Who Runs the Counties in Ohio?

Most of the real dirty work went on at the county level in Ohio.
Has anything changed at that level?
If they can steal Ohio again, that makes it 269/269
which probably gives us Obama, but might stick us with Palin as VP!
(since Lieberman would vote with the Republicans).
How long would Obama last under that scenario? :scared:

[Dawgs]

15. My thoughts.

NH is a very, very, very close win for McCain -boooo.
OH is a win for McCain - depends on big city and university turnout.
VA is a win for Obama - already turning blue and did very well for him in primaries.
NC could be a win if the students from the four major universities turnout to vote. McCain win for now.
FL will be much closer than many of you think, but I predict a close win for McCain.
MI will be an easy win for Obama.
WI will be a 5+ point win for Obama.
IA will go Obama.
Minnesota will go Obama - similar to WI.
Colorado will go Obama - McCain has never really led in CO according to RCP and Pollster.com.
New Mexico - big win for Obama.
Nevada - no chance. McCain wins here by 5+ points.
Missouri - same as Nevada.

Suprise pick - INDIANA - I think Obama could easily win in Indiana - I'd call it a toss up right now, but Obama gets the points.

Obama - 297
McCain - 241

[Skwmom]

17. Prediction: Obama takes VA.

[darius15]

20. Here's my opinion

New Hampshire:

I'll say this barely goes blue. You're right, NH is to McCain what Iowa is to Obama. He's like a "favourite son" here. But I still think that this state will stay Dem. Obama will win by 1-2 percent.

Pennsylvania:

I agree with your view.

Ohio:

I think McCain wins this by 1-2 percent. Obama gets huge turnout in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) and Columbus. Otherwise, it's pretty much all red.

Virginia:

Either way. The key is the turnout Obama gets in Northern Virginia. Obama is expected to get huge turnout out here, and if he can keep the margins down in Virginia Beach and the Appalachian part of the state, he will win. If not, it's a McCain win.

North Carolina:

McCain by 3-4. Obama will get huge turnout from AA's and college kids. Obama will do well in the "Research Triangle" which is an area which has very affluent voters, who like Obama. Ofcourse, it doesn't hurt that Obama isn't half bad at basketball in a basketball crazy state. However, McCain will still squeeze out a victory IMO.

Florida:

The key is the I-4 region. About 40% of voters in I-4 are registered Republicans, 30% are Dems, and 30% are Independents. The independents in I-4 have a strong Democratic lean though. Whoever wins I-4 wins Florida. My guess is McCain is barely winning this region, and thus winning the state.

Michigan:

Obama by 4-5 percent. Obama will get numbers in Wayne County (Detroit) and Lansing, which has a lot of college students. It will offset the margins in other areas.

Wisconsin:

Obama by 4-5 percent.

Iowa:

Safe Obama.

Minnesota:

Obama by 3-4 percent. Obama's turnout in the Twin Cities will likely get him the state.

Colorado:

Obama by 1-2 percent. Denver will produce huge numbers for Obama, so will a few other Dem portions of the state. This is another state where Obama is pretty popular.

New Mexico:

Lots of Hispanics. Hispanics vote Obama 70-30. You tell me who's gonna win.

Nevada:

McCain by 1-2 percent.

Missouri:

McCain by 5-6 percent. Obama gets numbers in the two heavy AA cities (Kansas City & St. Louis). Other than that, it's all red.