If the Bradley Effect is true, what margin is safe for Obama?

[HardWorkingDem]

How do people feel about this and if the Bradley Effect is true, what margin do Du'ers thing Obama has to have on the eve of Nov 4?

[Ian David]

1. 3% for The Bradley Effect, plus an additional 5% for Election Fraud and Voter Suppression. n/t

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

7. 538 suggests it's a myth, but there may be a REVERSE Bradley effect in the South.

[writes3000]

2. Please Read This...

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/ap%E2%80%99s-ron-fournier-racial-arsonist-and-unethical-journalist

It puts the "Bradley effect" to bed.

It's well worth your time.

[KingFlorez]

3. I don't think that's a problem

If anything, I think we could see a reverse, there could be a lot of people voting for Obama, but not willing to admit that they are and tell the pollsters something else.

[HardWorkingDem]

4. Oh, how I wish that were true, but I don't....

I think it is going to be the exact opposite, but I would like nothing better than to sit down and watch the election returns and learn I was completely wrong.

[leftynyc]

5. Same here

Frankly, I'm at the point where I would just love to be proven wrong about my feelings. I fear this country is about to find out just how racist it still is.

[FloridaGrl]

9. I agree

I think people are going to vote based on the economic conditions this year.

[ShortnFiery]

6. BULLSHIT! Where was "The Bradley Effect" in Iowa? Thanks for your UNFOUNDED concern

:eyes:

[HardWorkingDem]

8. I'll tell you where my "unfounded" concern is at...

When I talk to normally strong democrats who tell me that they are either not voting this year or that they simply will not vote for Obama. That is where my concern comes from. And they do exist because I have talked to a handful of these type of voters. And these are the people who are open about their feelings. Hopefully as Nov 4 comes closer and the more that is learned about McCain, and Obama, they will come to their senses and do the right thing. But there is something there.

[ShortnFiery]

10. That's what's termed in Psychology, IMO, as "learned helplessness" and has NOTHING to do with

"The Bradley Effect." PM me for a full back-and-forth if you would like?

[elkston]

11. I'd say between 3% - 4%. So we need to be up by 5 points in all the important states. (eom)

[liskddksil]

12. Whatever effect there is is cancelled out

by the new registrations, young people, cell phones, that are underrepresented in the likely voter models.

[elkston]

13. That's what I am counting on. The "new" will overwhelm the "old" and we win (eom)