Clarify "The Bradley Effect" If you Will?

[CatBO]

So I think I've read that the Bradley Effect is where people say they will vote for Obama, but they're closeted racists, and they go into the booth and they don't.

Is that right?

Because having grown up in the South, I think the opposite is going to be true there.

People will say that they'll never vote for Obama, but when they go behind that curtain, they're actually going to. They'll tell exit pollsters they voted for McCain, but they just can't bring themselves to pull the trigger.

I think that whatever "effect" that is, that's the most likely scenario for the south.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

1. 538 agrees with you.

[holiday]

3. In what respect Charlie

sorry couldn't resist

[ShortnFiery]

2. How about we NOT rehash this tired old meme ... and say we did?

;)

[CatBO]

4. So sorry!

I know, there are no new ideas under the sun. :hi:

[ShortnFiery]

6. There is a small percentage of people who "hard core" bigots, you pick the flavor.

To rue the fact that some people are bigoted, have been bigoted and will stay that way for the rest of their days on this earth ... well, it accomplishes little since they are NOT intellectually reachable. :shrug:

[CatBO]

8. I agree... and there's something else I realized...

They keep talking about how "race may lose Obama the election" because X percentage of Democrats admit to having negative stereotypes of black people.

I know many of those Democrats (again, having grown up in Georgia) and I think the media has it all wrong. Those people have negative stereotypes but they usually often realize they are just that stereotypes and they will recognize and vote for great people regardless of color. Even my own mother, a die-hard southern "belle" who is a total racist, admits that. Though sadly, she'll vote Republican because that's just what she does.

[NewJeffCT]

9. well, some folks don't always know these things

so, have legitimate questions - GD:P has been moving so quickly the past couple of months that one item on the Bradley Effect could easily fall off the front page to little notice.

[davepc]

5. Nobody knows. It's 1982 anymore.

In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls in the final days before the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead.<6> Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner; early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected." However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that previously "undecided" voters had voted for Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.<3>

A month prior to the election, Bill Roberts, Deukmejian's campaign manager, predicted that white voters would break for his candidate. He told reporters that he expected Deukmejian to receive approximately 5 percent more votes than polling numbers indicated because white voters were giving inaccurate polling responses to conceal the appearance of racial prejudice. Deukmejian disavowed Roberts's comments, and Roberts resigned his post as campaign manager.<7>

Similar voter behavior was noted in the 1989 race for Governor of Virginia between Democrat L. Douglas Wilder, an African-American, and Republican Marshall Coleman, a white candidate. In that race, Wilder prevailed, but by less than half of one percent, when pre-election poll numbers showed him on average with 9 percent lead.<8><9> The discrepancy was attributed to white voters telling pollsters that they backed Wilder when they actually voted for his opponent.<10>

After the 1989 Virginia gubernatorial election, the "Bradley effect" was sometimes called the "Wilder effect".<11><12> Both terms are still used; and less commonly, the term "Dinkins effect" is also used,<4> in reference to the 1989 election of David Dinkins as Mayor of New York City over Rudy Giuliani.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[treestar]

14. Annthrax and co have enabled the racists, too

They are no longer afraid of not appearing to be PC. They'll come out and say they're voting for McCrazy without the least problem.

[ReadTomPaine]

7. Here you go...

The Bradley Effect

The term Bradley effect, less commonly called<1> the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.<2><3><4> Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.<5>

...

In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls in the final days before the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead.<6> Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner; early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected." However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that previously "undecided" voters had voted for Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.<3>

...

Similar voter behavior was noted in the 1989 race for Governor of Virginia between Democrat L. Douglas Wilder, an African-American, and Republican Marshall Coleman, a white candidate. In that race, Wilder prevailed, but by less than half of one percent, when pre-election poll numbers showed him on average with 9 percent lead.<8><9> The discrepancy was attributed to white voters telling pollsters that they backed Wilder when they actually voted for his opponent.<10>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Anachronistic bullshit spouted by morons and essentially unverifiable or falsifiable

[Bucky]

13. essentially unverifiable

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Doesn't dispute me in the least

[mrreowwr_kittty]

11. Reverse Bradley effect. nt

[Bucky]

12. I'm still seeing a lot of people with good minds sitting on the fence here

I teach in a large southern city. I still see some Clinton voters, all of them friends and colleagues, who are making entirely irrational noises about Obama and one who is simply going to vote for McCain. When the topic of political issues--McCain's stand on expanding the war in Iraq, his support for deregulation of financial industries--they demure and go back to the "I trust him to be C-in-C" shinola. No logic to it. I'm still trying to figure out a diplomatic way to tell them how stupid they're being.

Yes, I see the Bradley effect working very strongly in my workplace.

[ShortnFiery]

15. You can't quantify that as "The Bradley Effect" - Americans are justifiable FRUSTRATED

with the political system. Some have become so frustrated that they just "turn inward" and ignore all that outside their sphere of influence. That does not translate, "Hey, they won't vote for an Black man."

Let's get a little more specific on why these folks are vacillating BEYOND the simplistic catch all that the GOP loves?

No, it's NOT, IMO, The Bradley Effect.

[Every Man A King]

16. The Obama Effect

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_democratic_primary-507.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_primary-270.html

[izzybeans]

17. a small percentage of white voters won't admit who they voted for.

It's unclear whether this number is actually significantly different from the proportion of voters who would not tell you to begin with.

If it actually is higher than it means Obama will have to trend a couple of points hire than exit polls would suggest-but this number will vary depending upon the local population's penchant for racism.

That being said I believe the % of voters that wouldn't vote for a democrat regardless of race is probably near 100% of those "Bradley Effect" voters.

[ShortnFiery]

20. Rest easy izzybeans, it won't be too much longer when us "white folk" will be MINORITY.

:evilgrin:

[Demi_Babe]

18. but they are not necessarily racist...just fearful of being labeled that because they don't vote for

the minority

[Thrill]

19. I remember people claiming this would happen in the primary. Another BS Repuke meme