How Does Obama Lose Friday's Debates? Worst Case Scenario.

[Clio the Leo]

Ok, help me out here, I'm nervousing majorly and doubt I have enough antacid to last me until Friday night ..... so how I destress is to think of the WORST thing that could happen and try to calculate the probability of it happening.

For example, lets say Obama slips and says that Akmadinajad is the president of Pakistan (say it with me now, "Pak - ee -STON") ...... well, that's simply not gonna happen.

Or he fails to give a good explanation for why he didn't support the Surge and still doesn't ...... well, he has had enough time to work on that that if he DOESN"T come up with a good answer, he doesn't deserve to win anyway. So I'm discounting that theory.

So what am I missing? What's the WORST thing he could say or not say?

And more importantly, if I develop a bleeding ulcer before this things starts, do I go to the hospital or wait until Saturday?

[Celeborn Skywalker]

1. He won't do badly.

The worst that can happen is that McCain may get in a few made-for-tv soundbytes whereas Obama will give more detailed, thoughtful, explanations. Also, expectations are lower for McCain so he doesn't have to do as good as Obama for the pundits to say he had a good night.

[joshcryer]

3. Exactly, McCain will be about soundbites, Obama will have to compensate.

If he's *too* intelligent then the average voter will fall for it when the media starts their bullshit horserace inticing spin.

So Obama is going to need to get a few words in edgewise, and I think he is more than capable!

[Clio the Leo]

9. Yeah and he has been cranking out the soundbites lately. He's getting better. NT

[jbnow]

52. Thoughtful, intelligent answers that include nuances

is what Obama needs to avoid or it will cost him according to some pundit (Cynthia Tucker?)

The panel were saying expectations were low for both but the bar was higher for Obama since whatever McCain says it is assumed to be his strength, Obama has to prove himself.
OK...prove himself by not giving thoughtful, intelligent answers.?!

First they said nether were good debaters and then some said John was pretty strong although aggressive. I thought Obama became a very good debater after a weak start. They say he sounds like a professor. Oh no! God knows we don't want a smart president who understands nuance and talks to us like adults.

Maybe he is practicing saying "I hate evil. I will kill all evil, I will chase it to the gates of hell and watch it burn and God bless America, we're number one"

[Eric J in MN]

2. If Obama votes for the bailout, then McCain can come out against the bailout...

(in spite of his general support for the bailout today) and be a populist.

[my3boyz]

48. Yeah, I think I read Newt Gingrich said he should do that so

that he could then say "See..I am a reformer. I'm going against Bush." Then he said that he could paint Obama as simply going along with George Bush.

[GrizzlyMan]

4. There are 3 things I'm worried about

1. His "um....uh" issue that he seems to have at times.

2. Not being direct in his answers, breaking down complicated issues in easy to understand bites for the low info crowd.

3. The MSM and their horse race mentality declaring it a draw no matter how well Obama performs.

[Clio the Leo]

7. yeah, he had some major "ummage" in his speech yesterday...

I know how he feels, sometimes the words are coming out of my head so fast I cant make my mouth keep up ......... he just needs to slow it down and breathe.

Hopefully he's sitting in a room somewhere with a electic buzzer that zaps him every time he ums. :)

[knowbody0]

5. I'm very impressed with his interviews

when they try to tie him in knots, he has a way of freezing them on the spot. "now hold it" he says, then clarifies his point precisely.

have faith in this. he will do very well. Hell, he's debating a guy with serious dimentia.

[Clio the Leo]

8. yep, I am VERY impressed with his ability to debate his way out of a corner....

.... Bill O'Reilly interview was a prime example of that. Bill tried to get him flustered, kept interrupting him and Barack just kept talking until Bill did the most amazing thing.....

... he shut up. :)

[Newshues]

6. Pakistan is his achilles heel

If he sticks to his position of sending our guys into Pakistan if we know there is a "high value target" inside of Pakistan's borders and Pakistan will not act. We've seen in recent weeks how that would go over. It is exactly the subject the MSM would ask about to either trip him up or put him in a flip-flop situation.

[fujiyama]

37. He was right about it then and I still think he's right about it now but he has to explain why

He's been one step ahead of the curve on international affairs. The others want to keep believing this nonsense that Pakistan is an ally. Obama also understood that Iraq would take away attention and resources from Afghanistan. But I think many don't get this. McCain is the one that doesn't know the difference between Shiites and Sunnis (and I mean the geopolitical differences and not the theological differences) and thinks Iraq and Pakistan share a border. And he's also got Latin American mixed up with Europe.

His only issue is breaking the issues down into crisp concise soundbytes and avoid "uhhhhs... and ummmms...".

[BlueIdaho]

10. Obama needs to speak in sound bites

Short - simple - sentences.

There is time for soaring oratory later - first he needs to be elected - that means playing to middle America.

[AtomicKitten]

11. Short of him dropping his pants on stage, I think Obama will do well.

[Clio the Leo]

13. ummm.... but wouldn't that make about half of us want to vote for him MORE? :-) ...

..... talk about regaining the white women vote.

[AtomicKitten]

29. oh yeah!

:applause:

[NYC_SKP]

14. Actually, that might not be so bad....

Especially if John did it too!

[Clio the Leo]

20. ewwwwwww! NT

[Shanti Mama]

57. eeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwww to the nth degree

Obama - yeah. No way McCain.

[AtomicKitten]

25. Voters against wrinkly nads!

[Starry Messenger]

41. +1

[hogwyld]

67. Yeah, that would completely lock up

the depends demographic for McW.

[NYC_SKP]

12. On his WORST day Obama is 10X better than McCain on he BEST day.

There is nothing to worry about, please stop looking for things to worry about.

Haven't you read "the Secret"?

:shrug:

[Cha]

17. I saw the movie and I'm

down with Obama's gonna do Awesomely Well on Friday Night! :bounce: :toast: :patriot: :kick: :party:

[NYC_SKP]

21. He's gonna kick a little ass....

He's gonna look gooooood!

:kick::woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[regnaD kciN]

30. Sorry, but...

...there's nothing little about McCain's ass.

:evilgrin:

[Clio the Leo]

18. Sorry, it's the Biden/Bryant methodology.....

... and by Bryant I mean Bear Bryant ...... and yes, that makes THREE SEC coaching referenes in one night. I'm on a roll!!!

Example: "We're really not that good, our D line is weak, we're having problems with special teams, Ole Miss will probably kill us on Saturday."

And then you go out and beat them by 40 points.

It's just how I roll. :-)

[NYC_SKP]

23. Ahh, I'm familiar with that.....

In that case, we're just gonna go out and, ya know, we're gonna give it a try, give our best shot......

Like that? :hi:

[regnaD kciN]

34. It's gonna be tough...

...after all, McCain is known to be a real junkyard dog (pit bull?) of a debater, not surprising after all the years he spent as a Washington insider in the Senate. ;-)

[NYC_SKP]

43. Maybe they need to do this in a Cage!!!

Like those extreme wrasslers do it!

[backscatter712]

15. Don't sweat it.

Obama's got a black belt in verbal jiu-jitsu. It won't be long before McCain's thrown to the mat.

[mzmolly]

16. He says

"nukular" weapons?

[mzmolly]

19. In all seriousness

he needs to tighten his answers a bit. Appear "resolute" as well as thoughtful. No "uh uh uh" stuff. He also needs to look into the camera when he speaks as often as possible. Communicate with the TV viewership.

[amborin]

22. the surge and Afghanistan

have me very worried

somewhere in the past few weeks, O came out and said he was surprised how the surge had worked

huff po had an article saying how regrettable this statement of O's was, and how O had essentially conceded the Iraq war to McCain and backed himself into a corner

the reality of course is that "the surge" is only a tiny, tiny part of the reason why violence levels in Iraq have fallen

the main reasons are the US deal with Sunni leaders, neighborhood partitioning (and ethnic cleansing), and Muktada Sadr's decision to temporarily cease his attacks

"the surge" can be a real trap for Obama

so can Afghanistan.....

this 'the Nation' article is excellent...i posted it last evening....

it points out the folly "the surge" and also the folly of sending more troops to Afghanistan

here's the article:

<http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081006/myths >

[anonymous171]

27. Perhaps he's ceding the surge so

he can attack McCain for wanting to go to war in the first place. Without his "SURGE" talking point, McCain is just as vulnerable as Hillary was.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

58. Now that we've won the war, what have we won?

Stipulate that the surge has helped bring down the violence, and then say, "I'm going to start withdrawing our troops as soon as possible. Their work is done, and we have a job to do in Afghanistan."

[Clio the Leo]

36. Is there ANY way he can bring up the notion of ethnic cleansing...

..... as another reason why the surge has "worked" without sounding like a fruit cake?

[Arugula Latte]

24. Three words: Spinach in teeth.

[NYC_SKP]

26. LOL!

If it was me up there my fly would be unzipped, guaranteed.

[mzmolly]

28. By the way, I think he should mention that Kerry wanted an "international surge" in 04.

The surge wasn't just McCain's notion.

[amborin]

32. but the surge

did not work

that's the point

O conceded it did work

but the accurate analysis shows that the surge had very little to do with declining Iraqi violence levels

[mzmolly]

35. O also said we don't have any way of knowing

if it worked or not. Though he did also say that it worked beyond our wildest imagination or ?? on Bill O, so we'll see if/how he intertwines all of these things in the debate.

[amborin]

40. not

what O said

please provide a link

i saw the huff po article about his interview on some tv show

[mzmolly]

Nah,

I'm not going to provide a link. I'm a firm supporter of his, but you'll have to look for the O'Reilly youtube article if you're interested in specifics. I'm tired and don't much care who believes me. ;)

[amborin]

45. what is with

the "I'm a firm supporter of his" comment????

how is that at all relevant?

are you implying anyone making a comment is not a firm supporter?

[mzmolly]

55. I was under the impression

you doubted my support.

[anneboleyn]

31. He needs to get some sleep -- I notice that when he seems tired he can drag out answers

And he has been working hard lately with the campaign so I hope his people encourage him to get some real rest the night before (as much as one could get anyway, the night before a debate!)

[FrenchieCat]

33. If he gives the pundit heads what they want and loses his cool.

He needs to be Obama, and not who they are ordering that he should be.

[Imagevision]

38. Gwen Ifel is the moderator, Obama will show the world what McCain is made of...

[PBS Poll-435]

42. I thought she was doing the VP debate...

Jim Lehrer will be doing the one on Friday.

[D23MIURG23]

39. The worst I can honestly see happening would be slanted and trivial questioning.

and lots of attacking by McCain. I doubt that happens after the ABC backlash.

Frankly I'd be surprised if Obama didn't make McCain look like an asshole.

[OmahaBlueDog]

44. The main problem is expectations differential

The secondary problem is "gotcha"

Despite what you may read on Free Republic, no one expects McSame to do well in a debate with Obama (see 2000, Bush v. Gore). So if McSame comes out and doesn't wet himself, or start babbling mindlessly about his captivity, he scores points right there. I also strongly suspect that, while learning the sound bite script, he's been fed some "gotcha" lines. Whether he can deliver them with Lloyd Bensten's skill remains to be seen.

Worst case scenarios for Obama would include a major zing by McSame on the current economic crisis, or forcing Obama to give overly nuanced answers. He has a tendency to stammer a little, which also needs to be avoided. His asset is that he is generally smooth, poised, and Presidential looking.

Note: Obama is, or should be, aware of all of the above. I just hopehe arrives better prepared than he did for the Rick Warren gig.


Now to McSame. He has to appear to be casual and maverick like, while (in fact) regurgitating talking points word for word. He has to appear spontaneous while, in fact, avoiding any gaffes at all costs.

Worst case scenario: McSame gets an unplanned question or is driven off topic and is forcedto improvise

Worse worst case scenario: McSame loses his temper and says something he'll later regret on live national television.

[samuraiguppy]

46. not worried.

[my3boyz]

47. Uh....Uh...Uh....if he does that too much it could make people nervous...they

might wonder if he is telling them the truth or what they want to hear. I know he is just an intelligent man who thinks before he opens his mouth (unlike some people). However, others might see that as a sign of deception. My husband does not follow politics AT ALL. If I start talking about it he puts his hand up. LOL Anyway, one day he happened to catch Obama during a debate with Hillary. He wondered if Obama was telling the truth. Of course I jumped to Obama's defense. However, what about the households where there is no one to jump to his defense?

[concerned canadian]

51. naomi klein also does the ''umm, uh"" thing too

and I don't think too many people have a problem with it.

[road2000]

62. I don't think people are the problem.

Obama needs to lose the "ums" or they'll be used against him by the media, while McCain gets a pass. Remember Al Gore's "sighs"?

[TheKentuckian]

49. I think its odd that people take it as being evasive

when I do it, it's because I'm picking words to express my thoughts. Its the same thought but its important to say things in a way people will listen to what is said versus just hearing it.

[progressiveforever]

50. Sound bites are worrisome- most people won't watch it

Friday evening gives it an unusual viewer demographic. Most people watching will have made up their minds. It's those damned soundbites.

[Liberal_in_LA]

53. Don't worry about it.

[alcibiades_mystery]

54. My "DO NOT TRY" Advice

Obama: Do not try the old "excuse me while I whip this out" gag from Blazing Saddles! It will backfire seriously.

No, seriously. No whipping out - true or implied - of the you-know-what.

[Phoonzang]

56. I worry about him "uh uh um uh uh ur uh uh"ing too much. n/t

[LiberalAndProud]

59. If McCain doesn't show up, it's a loss for Obama.

Other than that ... I got nothing.

[Hamlette]

60. debates are never game changers

read up on it, they can produce a 1 or 2 point bounce but it is not permanent and it is not a game changer

The way I deal with it is to not watch.

Makes me too nervous and in the long run.....

debates are not game changers

[BlooInBloo]

61. McPOW is actually not a bad debater....

Of course one has high hopes for Obama, coming out of preseason practice debates with the Dems, and a month or two campaigning against McSenile.

Also, Obama's debate sparring partner is VERY sharp. McAdulterer chose his sparring partner simply because he was black.

[Bread and Circus]

64. Who did McCain choose, I have not heard this?

[BlooInBloo]

65. An idiot: Michael Steele....

http://www.americablog.com/2008/09/wsj-mccain-to-take-nap-before-big.html

[cameozalaznick]

63. Obama has had 21 debates against Hillary

and other Democrats. McCain had like 3 -- and that was a half a year ago. He'll be fine.

[SmokingJacket]

66. It won't happen -- he's just quicker on his feet than McCain.

I've never heard him screw up an answer, and I've never heard McCain give a good one.

That said -- the post-debate commentary will have them, at best, "tied." :eyes: