The Daily Widget – Wed 9/24 – O-325, M-213 – Wisconsin, Colorado Now Beyond MOE

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Wed Sep-24-08 06:47 AM
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The Daily Widget – Wed 9/24 – O-325, M-213 – Wisconsin, Colorado Now Beyond MOE

1. ANALYSIS

Seventeen new state polls were released yesterday, continuing a very busy period for polling. Both Wisconsin and Colorado move one column to the left today, from Lean Obama (within the margin of error) to Weak Obama (outside the margin of error). With these moves, Barack Obama increases his electoral strength lead and closes in on the nationwide popular vote today.

Quinnipiac University’s new Wisconsin poll shows Obama leading there by 7 points. Wisconsin had been moving closer to the middle after the conventions, but it was a strong swing state for Obama before then. Obama’s average lead in Wisconsin increases from +3.0 points to +4.3 points over John McCain today, beyond the margin of error.

Also moving beyond the margin of error for Obama today is Colorado, which had been polling just recently as a Lean Red state. Two new Colorado polls released by Quinnipiac University and Public Policy Polling yesterday show Obama with a 4-point and 7-point lead there, respectively. With these new polls, Obama’s average lead in Colorado increases from +0.8 yesterday to +4.0 today. This is a great sign and could potentially be a game-winner for Obama, as long as we can manage to hold on to either New Hampshire or Virginia. The rest would be gravy.

Tallying up the electoral votes from these new polls, Obama’s electoral strength lead jumps into the double digits today as his electoral votes beyond the margin of error far outnumber those of McCain’s, 238 to 174. This is an 11.9% lead for Obama over McCain. See the difference in the Strong and Weak columns in Figure 3c below, the 6-column chart.

And Obama is closing in fast in the popular vote, trailing McCain by a tiny 0.05% today, 64,000 votes out of more than 126 million expected to be cast in November (see Figure 4a below). Helping Obama’s numbers along today are polls in red states such as Arkansas and Kansas, where McCain’s lead is beginning to shrink to post-bounce levels.

More good news for Obama is seen in trading today, as both sets of swing states gain about 10 points since yesterday. There is an interesting post by Nate Silver at the link below about short-selling Obama’s shares on Intrade, something that is possibly affecting our Wigand Electoral Average and could explain why Obama’s state closing figures are still below the majority lines even though he is leading nationwide.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Arkansas

Obama 41, McCain 53 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California

Obama 56, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado

Obama 49, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.6, 1418 LV)
Colorado

Obama 51, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 9/21, +/- 3.0, 1084 LV)
Florida

Obama 47, McCain 45 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Kansas

Obama 38, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas

Obama 41, McCain 53 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.9, 666 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 38, McCain 57 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.8, 672 LV)
Massachusetts

Obama 55, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan

Obama 48, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.7, 1364 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 47, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.7, 1301 LV)
Ohio

Obama 46, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/22, +/- 4.1, 545 LV)
Oregon

Obama 52, McCain 41 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 50, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Vermont

Obama 56, McCain 38 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Washington

Obama 54, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.8, 682 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 49, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.7, 1313 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes