538 caught something disturbing on intrade.... you should read this.

[mckeown1128]

Click on the link and read the whole article!!!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


There's something funny going on over at Intrade with respect to the pricing of the Obama and McCain contracts.......

.....It's pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result

What's a little weird, however, is that this rouge trader is not only selling Obama contracts and buying McCain contracts they also seem to be buying Hillary Clinton contracts:

This is the exact mirror image of the Obama trading -- in fact, the trades seem to be occurring at exactly the same times. So someone is betting on some sort of disqualifying event happening to Obama.



The short of it. Someone(s) is systematically every eight hours betting tens of thousands of dollars on Hillary replacing Obama. What exactly do they know?

[1corona4u]

1. I don't even want to go there....

[rucky]

2. The Secret Service needs to know about this. n/t

[1corona4u]

3. Yep.

[renate]

32. i second that yep

I hope this is just a silly little :tinfoilhat: worry, but it's something they should be aware of.

[SunsetDreams]

4. "What exactly do they know?"

:eyes:

[whistle]

5. What do you think they know? And who would the "they" be? And what could

..."they" net given these repeat bets?

[sohndrsmith]

13. I don't know what it is, either, but if it's that regular

my guess is someone has programmed an automated cycle. Perhaps that's not out of the ordinary (I don't know) but it might be easier to find out where it's coming from... perhaps?

[LynneSin]

6. I don't even get this whole stock trading candidates stuff

why would I waste money on stuff like this

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. It's Based On The Wisdom Of Crowds

If enough people believe an event will happen it will most likely happen... For a more detailed explanation:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

[TwilightGardener]

7. Yeah--the funny rogue trader is called a "Republican". Jesus, people.

[bullwinkle428]

8. Almost like the short-selling of airline stocks prior to 9/11...

:scared: :scared: :scared:

[1corona4u]

12. I wouldn't put anything past the republicans...

[BrainStorm]

19. What?

If I knew what shortselling was...

[guruoo]

25. Simply put, they were betting on American Airlines stock to crash.

[dbmk]

28. I'll try

Short selling is selling stock you don't have at a given price, in order to buy them back at later given date.

Hoping or expecting them to fall.

In this case it might just as well be a well off bastard trying to mess with the public impression of Obamas strength.

The volume traded is nothing significant in dollars and cents, really.

[Zynx]

9. As someone who has studied financial markets for a long time, let me tell you most

of the time people "know" something, they know absolutely jack shit. Probably total B.S.

[jberryhill]

21. Ah, you should spend some time at the track

I got the horse right here.

[liberalpress]

37. His name is Paul Revere

and there's a guy who says if the weather's clear ...

[scheming daemons]

10. Obama is severely underpriced on intrade as a result... great buying opportunity

[Teaser]

18. true that. time to go all in

.

[BeyondGeography]

11. Who the fuck cares?

:thumbsdown:

[scheming daemons]

15. It might indicate that someone is "betting" on an assassination event....

...and if they're betting that heavily.... maybe they are part of a plot?



It's something to watch.

[1corona4u]

17. I agree it's something that needs to be looked into.

Judging by some of the comments in this thread, some people haven't learned anything from 911.

[TomClash]

14. The Belfair and Intrade markets are not identical

Belfair has barriers to entry so market access probably accounts for at least some of the discrepancy.

Maybe the Hillary contracts are shorts - or a hedge against Obama contracts being placed elsewhere.

[1corona4u]

16. That's only part of the point...

why is someone buying Hillary shares? That's the bigger question.

[TomClash]

20. You're right

I posted too quickly.

I edited my post.

I think it is probably a hedging strategy.

[guruoo]

22. May not be what they know, but rather what they want us to believe.

[mckeown1128]

24. What do you mean? nt

[guruoo]

27. As in aan attempt to generate chaos through fear, doubt, and/or disunity in the electorate

[Teaser]

33. Yeah, it's a FUD generating ploy

easy to see.

[guruoo]

35. I'm just trying to consider all the possibilities

[demokatgurrl]

31. BINGO!!!!! Calculated distraction. n/t

[Flarney]

23. Could Intrade just be gaming their own system to their ($) advantage?

(I'm not sure of the particular mechanics, but it's worth consideration)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

29. That's a cheap form of political advertising

Intrade is easy to manipulate. Pundits watch intrade.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

34. Just to be clear...and correct me if I'm wrong

Some 527 organization about be spending, say, a half million dollars to do this, creating an impression that the race is closer than it really is, so then the talking heads will keeping talking about the horserace.

If that's an accurate description, it IS a fiendish clever way to get media coverage.

[demokatgurrl]

30. They know nothing. NOTHING.

Take off the tinfoil hats, everyone. Obama is the nominee. He is the candidate. He will, God willing, be the President.

If I put on my own tinfoil hat, I see Karl Rove behind this bush. PUn intended.

[Lucky 13]

36. They don't know SHIT. They are HOPING for disruption.

To quote Chris Rock... "Hillary ain't runnin!"

It's a desperate attempt to once again divide democrats and inject controversy where there is none.