President Obama needs a strong dem majority in the House and Senate

[cali]

I don't know as much about the House races- though it looks good for dems, but the Senate is looking really good. Here's my take on it:

VA- what is there to say? Warner running thirty points up over whatshisface.

CO. Mark Udall holds a steady and significant lead of about 8 points over uberwingnut Shaeffer. He's up 8 points in the 9/21 PPP poll and he was up by the same amount the week before. CO will have two dem Senators come January.

NM- Mark's cousin Tom is beating the crap out of another uberwingnut, Steve Pearce. This one's over. Tom leads by over 20.

NH- This is a weird one from the weird state of NH. Jean Shaheen's lead has been steadily slipping and she's now up by only 4 in the newest UNH poll. This despite the fact that she's been running kickass ads. I think she'll pull it out because of the financial debacle and because it's getting cold up here in New England. Home heating is a huge election season issue.

KY- Mitch McConnell only leads by three in the latest Rasmussen poll in KY. This is my pick for the shocker of the year. Kentuckians feel free to tell me I'm nuts.

NC- Hagen leads Liddy Dole by 5 in the latest PPP poll. I think dems take back this seat.

Alaska- Mark Begich is consistently leading that paragon of repuke corruption, Stevens- who's trial begins today. Alaska's another weird one,but I think Begich wins.

OR- Smith is up 1 over Merkely here- and that's about how it's been for at least a couple of weeks. I think Smith still has the upper hand here- slight as it is.

MN- Norm Coleman has been running a disgusting campaign. In the latest poll though, he's only up 1. Still, I think this is a hard road for Franken.

None of the other states are competitive, though in Mississippi, Musgrove only trails by 5. In Maine, Susan Collins is way up over Tom Allen. Lindsay Graham is safe as is Saxby Chambliss in Georgia.

To sum it all up, I believe the evidence and the political environment indicate big gains in the Senate. Dems will pick up 6+ seats- and I think it's more like 8. That would give dems 55 to 57 Senate seats. Not counting Bernie or LIEberman. Bernie, of course, will caucus with the dems. LIEberman? Fuck him. And it's not impossible that dems pick up 10 for a filibuster proof majority. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible at all.

[sharp_stick]

1. Lieberman, Fuck Him... concise and to the point

I for one, as a CT resident, can not wait for that asshole to become totally bloody irrelevant. His political career is over and I think it's even starting to penetrate that massive skull of his.

As for the rest of your post, I think we're looking good in the Senate and the House is looking up too.

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

2. I'm in CT, too

I'm in Rosa's district and she will certainly win. I'm volunteering with The Hilltop Brigade to re-elect Joe Courtney, Chris Murphy and to elect Jim Himes to replace Shays

http://www.spazeboy.net/2008/03/hilltop-brigade-needs-you-to-expand-the-democratic-majority/
(the Brigade's website is having issues)

on edit: i was able to get to their site

http://www.hilltopbrigade.org/?action=book

[cali]

3. I'd love to see Shays defeated

New England's last repuke Congress critter.

[sharp_stick]

9. Thanks for the links

I'll see if I can do something.

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

10. Excellent

Hilltop Brigade is a dynamic group. They are asking for 2 Saturdays between now and 11/1 to go door-to-door in pairs.

[nam78_two]

4. Sounds good to me

Thanks for the summary :thumbsup:-haven't really been paying much attention to senate and house this time around with all the other stuff going on. But, that sounds really promising :toast:.
Most unfortunate about Lieberman-haven't liked him for a long time, but with each passing year I am amazed at the depths he seems willing to plumb. Hard to believe this guy was ever a Dem and one who seemed to actually care about issues like the environment and choice (at least some) at one time....

[cali]

5. Lieberman will be irrelevant in the new Senate

and yeah, it looks really good. How great would it be to defeat the Senate Minority Leader and Liddy Dole?

[cloudythescribbler]

6. The PRESIDENCY is key, and the MSM slighting stories that would devastate McCain/Palin is too

I agree that the Senate is also very important, but the outcome in the House is less clear. I would recommend that DUers and other Democrats take most or all the money they were going to donate to the DCCC and put it towards the Presidential election, w/a large chunk to Senate races, even if they're already donating to the latter two.

[Robbins]

7. Senate

We will take open seats In New Mexico,Virginia,and Colorado.

Shaheen should previll In NH.

Palin's approval rating In Alaska Is going down.That along with Stevens Corruption should allow
Begick pull It off.Even RAS has him leading Stevens by 2(In the middle of the Palin Bumb)

2 Polls say Elisabeth Dole may be joining her husband In Retirement soon.

That alone brings up to 56 seats(counting Sanders who Is a Liberal Democrat In everything but name)
I refuse to call Lieberman's seat a Dem(he may finally join them after he loses his chairmanship
In January)

Don't write off pickups In Oregon,and Minnesotta.Smith and Coleman eather have 1 point leads or are tied.This Is great Improvement.Al Frankin at one point was behind by double digets.

I am not sure Mcconnell will be beaten.If RAS has him leading only by 3 It Is possable.

Maine will depend by how much Obama wins the state and whiether there Is a big straight Democratic
vote.

So we could get(counting Sanders) to 58 or 59 seats(If there Is a upset In Maine or If Mcconnell goes down)

[AtomicKitten]

8. Great analysis. I too believe a filibuster-proof Dem Congress is doable.

And then it's hold on to your hat because change is coming!

[old guy]

11. Looks good so far.

Now however, I would issue words of caution. In order to obtain a filibuster proof Senate, we will need several more than 60 because of the blue dogs. They cannot be counted upon to act as true Democrats.

[cali]

12. nope. not true. first of all, even Ben Nelson votes with the dems

on most issues. Secondly, there's nothing to be gained by siding with the pukes on a filibuster in a Senate with 60 dems. In fact, there's a lot to be lost. Senators care a lot about committee chairmanships and power. Oh, and Harry Reid may be a wimp but with a 60 member caucus he wouldn't hesitate to flex his muscle.

[old guy]

13. Just sayin'