ABC News responds to McCain Camp re: "outlier": "matches our average for this number all year"

[sabra]

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008/09/polling-and-par.html

Polling and Party ID

Some confusion about polling and partisan affiliation worked its way into the campaign dialogue today. Let’s sort it out.

It’s at issue because Bill McInturff, pollster for the McCain campaign, held a conference call to suggest the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll in effect overcounted Democrats. The reality is that partisan affiliation in our poll is just about where it’s been all year – and just about where McInturff himself said it might end up on Election Day.

What matters is whether you’re looking at “unleaned” or “leaned” party identification, and whether that’s among registered or likely voters. The most relevant number for this discussion is unleaned party ID among likely voters – 37-30 percent Democratic to Republican in our poll. As it happens that’s precisely where McInturff said the election could turn out: the Republicans, he said, “could be down 6 to 8.”

McInturff’s focus was on a different number - leaned party ID, not unleaned, and among registered voters, not likely voters. We have a 16-point, 54-38 percent Democratic advantage there, which he said was “an unusual outlier.” In fact, rather than an outlier, that almost exactly matches our average for this number all year, 52-38 percent.

[Alter Ego]

1. The Obama campaign thinks the poll is bullshit too

but that's more of a "downplay it, goddamnit" type vibe. We don't want complacency--we want turnout.

[ClarkUSA]

2. WaPo/ABC poll is rated the #1 national poll among pollsters by pollsters, for good reason.

The McLiar campaign is busted -- again.

Although it's important to remember that what's relevant now is battleground state-by-state polls, not national polls.