New Insider Advantage Colorado Poll: Obama+9 (50-41)

[democrattotheend]

Little-changed from last week, when Obama led by 10. This poll was taken yesterday, so hopefully that's indicative that this isn't just a temporary bounce for Obama.

"This most recent survey in Colorado confirms our earlier InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position numbers of earlier in the month. Sen. Obama’s move towards a solid lead occurred well over a week ago and now has become more stable and solid. Sen. Obama led among every age group but those who are 65 and over. While Obama leads among female voters and male voters, the most important demographic is that of "independent" voters. Obama currently leads among this segment of voters by a 47%-to-34% margin. While Colorado has been considered a swing state, it appears, for the moment, to be leaning heavily in Sen. Obama’s direction."

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_924_587.aspx

[writes3000]

1. That is huge! With Iowa, NM and CO at these margins, McCain is on the run.

He's got to fight back in the southwest, VA, NC, OH and IN.

Obama's got one specific region where he has to play defense. And he's ahead in both of those states (PA, MI).

[democrattotheend]

2. IA+NM+CO takes the White House, IF we hold the Kerry states including New Hampshire

I'm starting to get a little worried about New Hampshire though...McCain is still leading in some polls there even this week. We barely won it in 2004 and Kerry was from neighboring Massachusetts. If we pick up Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico but lose New Hampshire it comes out 269-269 and goes to the House, where all bets are off.