Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania solidly in our column-mathematically impossible to lose the EC

[Politics_Guy25]

Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/14 - 09/23 -- 50.2 44.8 Obama +5.4
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 794 LV 51 47 Obama +4
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 700 LV 50 47 Obama +3
InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
PPP (D) 09/20 - 09/21 1084 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1418 LV 49 45 Obama +4

Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/11 - 09/23 -- 48.0 44.7 Obama +3.3
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 730 LV 53 44 Obama +9
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 47 46 Obama +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 48 45 Obama +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/16 - 09/18 625 LV 46 44 Obama +2
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 600 RV 45 45 Tie
Marist 09/11 - 09/15 535 LV 49 44 Obama +5

Michigan: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/14 - 09/23 -- 48.0 44.1 Obama +3.9
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 755 LV 51 46 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1346 LV 48 44 Obama +4
MRG of Lansing 09/15 - 09/20 600 LV 43 46 McCain +3
Marist 09/16 - 09/17 599 LV 52 43 Obama +9
Detroit News 09/14 - 09/17 602 LV 43 42 Obama +1
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 600 RV 48 44 Obama +4

Oh and nationally, we have a 3.5 lead and 56% odds on Intrade!!

Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/17 - 09/23 -- 47.9 44.4 Obama +3.5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 1085 RV 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 09/19 - 09/22 780 LV 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 09/19 - 09/22 838 LV 49 45 Obama +4
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 2740 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Rasmussen Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 3000 LV 49 47 Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 903 RV 48 42 Obama +6
Ipsos-McClatchy 09/18 - 09/22 923 RV 44 43 Obama +1
Battleground Tracking 09/17 - 09/23 800 LV 46 48 McCain +2
CNN/Opinion Research 09/19 - 09/21 697 LV 51 47 Obama +4

That's 269 electoral votes for Senator Obama right there. 269 pretty darn solid electoral votes. The election, people, is in the bag for us. Now, whether dirty tricks or supreme court and house of representatives shennigans deprive us of the presidency is another story but right now it's nearly impossible for Senator Obama to lose this race. Of course, keep working. Keep donating. Kepp canvassing. Maintain these poll numbers. :)

There may be a scenario where we lose the electoral college but I am having a hard time seeing it at the moment. :)

[msallied]

1. Does that scenario include Iowa?

[Politics_Guy25]

2. Yes-We have all the Kerry states except NH in the bag

Winning Colorado and Iowa negates losing New Hampshire and brings us to 269. Virginia would put us over to 283 electoral votes. We're up massively in Iowa between 7-15 points.

[Blondiegrrl]

3. 2004's EC map:

[bluecatz]

4. Don't forget New Mexico, which is a lock

Obama's lead there is comfortable (6%):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html

[book_worm]

5. that is true for today, but unfortunately the election is 44 days from now

so it's best not to take anything for granted.

[usregimechange]

6. All Obama has to do is lose NH if he counts on the west to carry him

the polls are good but they need you and me on the ground.

[doc03]

7. Not to rain on your parade but nothing is

impossible.