The Daily Widget – Thur 9/25 – O-326, M-212 – Obama Regains PV Lead; New Hampshire Red

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Twenty new state polls were released yesterday for 14 different states, but only one state changes columns today. New Hampshire stays on its course to the right and switches to Lean McCain today. But the good news is that Barack Obama retakes the popular vote lead with strong polling continuing for him in Colorado. And the national polls are beginning to show a commanding lead nationwide for Obama.

New Hampshire went to John Kerry by 1.3 points in 2004, but Gore lost in New Hampshire by 1.3 points in 2000. It had been polling blue most of this year up until a couple weeks ago, when Zogby and ARG began seeing slight leads for McCain. Two new polls for New Hampshire today show mixed results, one showing an Obama lead of 6 points and another showing a McCain lead of 2 points. But the last of the batch of polls showing Obama leading in New Hampshire before the conventions fell off today with the new polls, and Obama’s average lead of 0.3 has now become a McCain lead of 0.2, or a 0.5 point move to the right.

There are now four states with 42 electoral votes in the “toss-up” range of Obama +1 and McCain +1: Virginia (+0.2, 13 EV), New Hampshire (-0.2, 4 EV), Nevada (-0.7, 5 EV) and Ohio (-0.9, 20 EV). Although three of these states are polling on average as barely red, my electoral vote calculator is seeing all of these states as currently blue, given Obama’s growing lead nationwide. If these four states were to go to McCain, the race would be tied at 269 each.

Obama regains the lead in the national popular vote today, thanks to continued strong state polling and good news coming from the national pollsters. See the poll widget below for the latest results from each pollster. Obama now leads by roughly 75,000 votes nationwide, or 0.06%. According to the national polls, Obama is leading by an average of 3.1 percentage points in the daily trackers and by an average of 3.3 percentage points in the Big 12 monthlies. This is above average for the daily trackers (2.6) and slightly below average for the Big 12 (3.6).





Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alabama Obama 39, McCain 60 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Colorado Obama 49, McCain 45, B1, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 794 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 41 (Insider Advantage, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 505 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 9/23, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Hawaii Obama 68, McCain 27 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 41 (Marist College, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 467 LV)
Maryland Obama 60, McCain 37 (Rasmussen, 9/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 43, McCain 46 (MRG of Lansing, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 38, B1, N2 (EPIC-MRA, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Michigan Obama 49, McCain 43, B2, N3, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 755 LV)
Montana Obama 40, McCain 49, B1, N1, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 737 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 45 (Project New West, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 45 (Marist College, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 604 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 46 (Strategic Vision, 9/23, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 43, B1, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 730 LV)
South Carolina Obama 39, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.8, 690 LV)
Virginia Obama 44, McCain 47 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
West Virginia Obama 44, McCain 49, B0, N5, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 694 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

[mmonk]

1. Thanks phrigndumass.

It's much appreciated. It's time for me to look hard at the numbers again.

[phrigndumass]

3. yw :)

:donut: Good morning, mmonk! :hi:

[mmonk]

13. Morning.

I see Rasmussen has Obama up two in NC and I recently saw another poll that said it was even here. Your thoughts?

[phrigndumass]

15. NC is trending in our direction, we'll have to wait and see :)

The new poll won't push it over to our side just yet, but it'll definitely keep it in play.

It's great news!!!

:hi:

[mmonk]

17. I always like movement in our direction.

;-)

[tekisui]

2. knr!

Looking good, this morning. I am now waiting to see Obama's bump from mcPOW suspending his campaign!:rofl:

They leave mcPOW's name off of all polling questions until he quits his tantrum.

[phrigndumass]

5. I wonder why the Vice-Presidential candidates can't keep campaigning ...

if the old coot is too busy to campaign?! That's what struck me, anyway. Oh wait, Palin won't talk to anybody, that's why.

It was a thought ...

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

26. Seriously? This is a Ploy to Stop the Polling?

That Rove is a twisty MF. And I never use language like that.


The GOP and BushCo have just woken up to the reality that IT'S OVER---IT'S SO FINALLY OVER! AND THEY ARE OUT IN THE COLD WITHOUT A BLANKET AND A LONG TIME IN JAIL STARING THEM ALL IN THE FACE.

Speculation is that Cheney looks so ill, he's not long for this world. The center isn't holding, nor even the right wing!

I could get giddy at this point but caution is urged.....until Rove joins Lee Atwater in hell, it's not over....

[terrya]

4. Very nice! Thank you

[phrigndumass]

6. yw terrya :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

7. Good morning!

New Hampshire!? What is going on over there?



:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

9. I was hoping you could tell us, lol

Tangent: Survey USA released a Maine poll first thing this morning showing Obama with only a 5-point lead. Allen is behind by 16 points. :( But it's still September :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[fight4my3sons]

18. I wish I could :(

When I was further south I knew people who were going to NH to canvass and reported positive experiences.

Thank you for the Survey USA info. I really don't know who they are polling. Literally everyone I know is voting for Obama. I have seen McCain signs, so I know there are people who support him, but the caucus turnout and the voter registration for Democrats leave me questioning the poll results. I don't know what is happening with Allen. I wish he would come out with some stronger commercials. I wish I had some money to contribute to him (emails are coming daily). There have been new ones against Collins that I am noticing from other organizations, so maybe they will help. You would think people would want her out.

[phrigndumass]

24. It appears Allen has been horribly outspent

Collins must have a huge warchest.

:hi:

[cali]

8. looking pretty good. thanks, phrig. but ugh. NH. an ugly blot of red

on the lovely blue landscape of new england.

[phrigndumass]

11. yw ... It seems that not all kernels pop

The republicans must be spending an awful lot of money in New Hampshire for those 4 electoral votes. They know it could be the difference between a tie and a loss.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

31. Obama will win NH

People doubted Kerry would win NH; he did.
People doubted we could win either CD in 2006; we won both.
People doubted we could win either house of our state legislature; we won both in 2006.
Obama will win NH.

[phrigndumass]

42. The polls are better today in NH ... looks like you're right!

:hi:

[a kennedy]

10. Thanks phrigndumass....

:hug:

[phrigndumass]

12. yw :)

:hug:

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[a kennedy]

14. and did I tell you that you da man!!

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

16. Only if you da woman!

:7

[jakem]

19. but why has he failed to hit 400?

Get back to work, people!



(kick)

[phrigndumass]

20. If he wins Utah, he'll hit 400 :)

Guaranteed (lol)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Curtland1015]

21. Nice! Thanks again Professor Phrig!

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

22. yw Curtland :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Kukesa]

23. "Must Read" n/t

[phrigndumass]

25. Off to work kick

(pssst ... Hi Kukesa!)

:kick: Enjoy your day

[grantcart]

27. Signs that Obama is conducting a rope a dope in blue states

First Pollster has one graph and one state that are very good.

First they group all the red states, blue states and swing states and graph it much like you do:




They also have a table which looks at the 15 swing states




I think that this shows that Obama is pushing hard in red states and holding back in blue states to keep the number of swing states close so that the McCain campaign from being able to concentrate its efforts.

[phrigndumass]

36. You may be right about working in red, holding back in blue

Obama currently has 269 electoral votes at +3 or more, or 97% probability of a win for those states. It makes sense to work in the red states.

Nice table!

:hi:

[grantcart]

28. Question why does the headline show Obama with 326 and chart 3c only show 286?

and why didn't anybody else check your math lol.

[phrigndumass]

38. Answer from the OP ...

There are now four states with 42 electoral votes in the “toss-up” range of Obama +1 and McCain +1: Virginia (+0.2, 13 EV), New Hampshire (-0.2, 4 EV), Nevada (-0.7, 5 EV) and Ohio (-0.9, 20 EV). Although three of these states are polling on average as barely red, my electoral vote calculator is seeing all of these states as currently blue, given Obama’s growing lead nationwide. ...

:7

[cliffordu]

29. WTF is up with NH??? Did the IQ's just fall ??

[phrigndumass]

39. It looks like it will go blue again tomorrow, lol

Indecisive, wishy-washy, schizophrenic young folks age 18-34 in New Hampshire and Maine (I dug through the crosstabs) are leaning more to McCain at the moment. But the older, wiser folks are now supporting Obama.

:hi:

[Fire_brand]

30. Question

when you have more than one state poll for a day, how do you decide what order to put them in? for example Michigan moves from weak obama to leans mccain, to strong obama, and back to weak obama all in one day. If you put the polls in a different order, wouldn't Michigan end up as leans mccain for the day?

[grantcart]

34. short answer the order doesn't have any impact

he is averaging new polls in with older polls so polls the same day have the same weight - if everything else about the polls are correct.

[amborin]

32. Michigan

worries

i posted a front page article yesterday from the NY Times....

about anti-O ads running in Macob county, Michigan

targeting white auto workers


these ads are paid for by some indie right wing group

the reasoning is however goes Macob county, so goes Michigan


what are we doing to combat these ads?


also----anti O ads targeting Hispanics in California and New Mexico have eroded O's lead among hispanics in those two states

not of concern in Ca, but IS of concern in NM

[grantcart]

33. New poll today shows Obama way up in Michigan

[RiverStone]

35. How does the WA/PO have Obama up by 9, but Gallup now tied?

Of course, as usual - the truth lies in the middle and what is it pollsters say...? It's in the aggregate silly.

Thanks for your-ongoing efforts P! :hi: Your post is the one I look for ahead of all the filtered stuff in the corporate media. :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

40. The best thing to do when the results are all over the place is to average them

Or stack them for a more dramatic effect.

You're welcome, RiverStone! :D :hi:

[Kukesa]

43. Do you think Obama has to have at least a 6-point lead

in order to win?

This was discussed today in my Poli Sci class, taking into consideration the "bubba vote" and the "Bradley" effect.

Your opinion?

[phrigndumass]

44. That's a hard call

I don't put much weight in the theory of a Bradley effect because white progressive candidates also succumbed to the same fate. And I'm thinking when push comes to shove the hillbilly belt always leans republican. A 3-point lead would be a 97% probability of winning, but I'd like to see at least a 4-point lead in the national polls on average for Obama to make it safe. We have the 3-point lead right now (+3.3 overall, see below).

:hi:

[Kukesa]

45. Kukesa Hearts Phrig! n/t

[amborin]

46. yes

and we should work for a 15% lead

[Kukesa]

48. 15% would be lovely. n/t

[thatsrightimirish]

37. careful

the rasmussen poll that showed McCain up also showed Sununu up. I find that very doubtful

[phrigndumass]

41. New polls today show that both NH and CO will be blue tomorrow :)

Rasmussen seems to be off a bit the past few days.

:hi:

[Number23]

47. Out of 18 polls, Obama leads in 16 of them

And in one of the two that he isn't leading, he is tied. So how in the world does Gallup put McCain up by 4???

And I guess I don't need to mention that out of all the polls, THIS is the one that the Freepers are referencing in just about every thread.