Michigan - Tied or Obama up +10? How can the polls be so different?

[weezie1317]

Today the following Micigan polls came out:


NBC/Mason Dixon - Tied
National Journal/FD - Obama +8
EPIC-MRA - Obama +10

Why are these polls be so wildly different? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle with Obama up 4-5 points. It's just such a shocking disparity.

[madmax]

1. I've given up on these polls

The only one that counts is Nov. 4. Screw these polls!

[unblock]

2. someone pays for the poll, and they usually want to see a particular result.

when they want OBJECTIVE answers, they pay to keep the results PRIVATE.

[OwnedByFerrets]

7. Ding, Ding, we have a winna.

[blondeatlast]

8. Yup. nt

[WI_DEM]

3. Well one is an outliar. NJ & EPIC are pretty much are in agreement

and M/D is the odd man out.

[LiberadorHugo]

4. Detroit Free Press has Obama at +13....

Remember though, polls only fall within their confidence interval 90 - 95% of the time. I think we can safely disregard the wacky Mason Dixon poll.

[WI_DEM]

5. yep, so that's 3 polls showing Obama 8-13 points ahead and one showing him tied.

[Zuiderelle]

6. The NBC one must not be including Detroit.

:shrug:

[blue_onyx]

11. I don't know

Today's Detroit Free Press said Obama is leading everywhere, except South-central Michigan, where it is tied. So even leaving Detroit out should give Obama some sort of lead.

[blue_onyx]

9. Well, I think the polls with the large margins...

better reflect Michigan. There was a Marist poll that showed a 9% lead and the Detroit Free Press poll that showed 13%. So there's four polls that show a strong Obama lead and only one that shows a tie. I have no idea why the NBC/Mason Dixon poll is so different.

[dkofos]

10. It all depends on the outcome the pollsters want.

[endthewar]

12. Because people define "likely voter" very differently

You can get almost any poll result that you want by changing the number of Dems, Repubs, and Independents. Almost all Repubs poll for McCain, so the more you have, the closer the poll.