OK. Looks like we may see just how real this crisis is.

[cali]

What will happen on Monday if there's no bail out by then? We know the stock market will fall, but will it plummet? Will they have to suspend trading. Some are predicting bank failures and saying the FDIC will need a 150 billion dollar bail out. Will there be a run on banks? How hysterical will it get. Because a lot of it is about the level of hysteria. That's always true when financial bubbles burst. Think tulips.

In a way- and I'm not wishing for anything calamitous to happen but I want to see how real this crisis is. And I'm less than enthusiastic about rushed through legislation.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Put me down for DOW -1675 Monday, if deal is expected but sunk over weekened)

That is NOT a real crash, BTW. It's only like 15-16%.

[SmokingJacket]

4. Don't they usually put in trading halts before then?

I can't remember it going down more than 500 or so in a day...

And usually people will step in and bargain hunt after a couple days of it going down.

So I think it'll take a few weeks to go down that much. But what do I know?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. I think that at 10% they pause for one hour, and there's another pause

at another point, and at some level they close for the day.

[TexasObserver]

18. they'll suspend trading at -1100, if not sooner

[cali]

5. I thought there were mechanisms to suspend trading if it falls below a certain

percentage. And whether it's a crash or not is a matter of perception as much as anything else.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. My figure is 15% because I know the market can fall that much before they halt trading for the day.

15% isn't that large. The prevailing rules were written after the lessons of a -27% day.


There's a point where stocks can't be sold on a down-tick or something like that. Then the first stop level triggers a one hour pause. Then another interval down, two hour pause, then a point where trading is halted for the day.

If I'm remembering correctly.


My crash comment was meant to be anti-alarmist. I have no doubt anything over 1000 DOW points will be considered a crash by the public. But the stops are supposed to prevent a crash, so what they permit probably isn't a crash. (In the minds of some economist somewhere who studies market failures.)

The biggest reason it would be considered a crash is being so telegraphed. Gotta call it something!

[BumRushDaShow]

9. As others noted, they will suspend trading.

They have done it in the past. Failsafes were put in after the 1987 crash to deal with the wild swings that can occur with program (and institutional) trading.

E.g.: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DEEDC113BF932A15753C1A961948260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

[maxsolomon]

2. you'll get to see in the morning

the markets are open friday, and they'll register their displeasure immediately.

[cali]

8. It'll fall tomorrow, I'm sure, but I think the markets will hold off

on really tanking until Monday.

[Median Democrat]

3. Is It Still Possible To Short A Stock?

Or, is that all banned?

[cali]

6. Only banned for financial institutions, as far as I know.

[stranger81]

16. GE managed to get itself on the short-sale ban list, along with a few other non-financial cos. [n/t]

[Geek_Girl]

7. I do to I want to see If it's real as well

I listened to an economics professor on the News hour the other night and he basically said the markets will rectify themselves and the bailout was more about helping out their friends than anything else. I was initially for some kind of bail out but I'm now starting to hope for NO bailout and let the markets rectify themselves.

[Fleshdancer]

11. I wonder if the Asian markets will fall tonight.

only time will tell I suppose.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. Asian perceptions of our politics are hard to predict

If public feints and bluffs are a big part of business culture in HK then maybe they'd discount our antics.

If such things are just never done there maybe they would he spooked.

Funny to think of the office of the guy in HK who's the big financial guru on the topic of how crazy American congressmen are.

[vaberella]

14. We officially have 2 weeks to come up with a bail-out. Not the end of this week.

It's been mentioned countless times that the bail-out has to happen within the next two weeks.

[AlCzervik]

15. oil and gold will go way up again.

[TexasObserver]

17. Bankruptcy filings by businesses will send shock waves through Wall Street.

The markets will lose big time.

If there is no deal by then.

[spanone]

19. or will wall street create havoc to get the deal through.....my tin foil is showing

:tinfoilhat: