My guess: You start to see a dramatic shift in McCain's strategy.

[Drunken Irishman]

He'll pull out of Virginia and North Carolina, focus hard on Ohio and Florida, try to flip Pennsylvania and go at it out west, hoping to maybe keep Colorado & Nevada.

[knowledgeispwr]

1. You really think he'd concede NC and Virginia?

Though, funny thing is, this particular election year, Va and NC may be easier for the Dem than OH and Fl.

[iceman66]

2. I can see us winning Va, NC AND FL, but still not OH!

[knowledgeispwr]

7. I don't find that scenario unreasonable.

The electoral map may have several surprises on election night.

[krawhitham]

11. I think you will see a reverse Bradley effect in Ohio

Most red necks around here will not admit that they will vote for Obama, not to their friends, family or polling people. But I really do not believe they will cut off their own dicks in the election booth on Nov. 4th.

With unemployment at 6.0%+ in Ohio once they guy get in the booth where no one knows how they voted they will vote for what is best for them

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Yes, because they're swinging Obama's way hard.

He doesn't have the money and the time to focus on Virginia, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. He's going to have to pick the two states Obama is least likely to carry and those are Ohio & Florida (in that order).

This is why Obama will win, because McCain will be on the defensive in too many states and I don't see him winning all of Bush's states, while also winning a state Kerry did in 2004.

[knowledgeispwr]

6. I definitely agree about McCain being on the defensive

but the RNC will be helping McCain with money for ads. I heard someone report from their NC local news (I'm also in NC, but haven't been watching local news) that McCain/Palin doesn't have any events scheduled here, which I find curious. NC is 15 electoral votes, nothing to sneeze at.

McCain has fewer and fewer paths to victory.

[Duke Newcombe]

3. Curse of Recklessness...

McCain will definitely concentrate his resources and sharpen the ferocity of his assenine attacks, but in doing so he'll become more careless, more fast and loose with the truth, and Obama merely telling the truth will begin to gain greater effect and damage him further.

I don't think I'm overestimating that you may very well be witnessing the self-destruct countdown of McWhatever.

Duke

[BlooInBloo]

4. (shrug) Sure. The timer is about 40 days.

[regnaD kciN]

8. Is this much of a surprise...?

With McCain, we've been seeing "a dramatic shift in his strategy" just about every 18 hours for the past two weeks.

:evilgrin:

[AllentownJake]

9. He'll pull out of PA before VA and NC

PA and NJ are the GOP's white whale. Obama's done alot of voter registration in PA and the GOP hasn't carried it since 1988.

I drove by the McCain office in Allentown today and it was closed. Not a soul in it. Won't give out numbers but the Allentown office and Subburban office had a very good day.

[Abacus]

10. Interesting, but Obama still wins 271-267

provided he picks up Virginia and North Carolina.