American Conservative's Daniel Larison: McCain won't drop Palin and why

[npincus]

http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/09/26/t-minus-six-days/

Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin.

The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as “disastrous.” One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, “What are we going to do?” The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is “clueless.” ~Ed Schultz

Six days to the VP debate, that is. Add this report from Schultz to the first call for Palin to step down from the ticket from a former supporter, and you have the makings of total disaster for the McCain campaign in this next week. The word disaster was honestly the first that came to mind when I heard the VP announcement as I was driving back to Chicago. I remember saying, to no one in particular in my car, “Total disaster.” Because I don’t want McCain to win, I wasn’t concerned that choosing Palin was a disaster for his chances, but I nonetheless felt a sense of wonder about it in the way that insane, futile attacks on fortified positions might inspire a certain strange admiration. I wondered at the time, “What could they have been thinking?” Of course, they had been thinking, “Mac wants Lieberman, which is even more insane, so let’s settle for the merely deranged.” Now they are paying the price.

After the Republican convention, I joked that the convention theme was, “Can we have a mulligan?” It seems to me that the McCain camp would very much like a do-over on the VP selection, but they know that if they dump Palin now it will definitely be over. If he dropped her now, or if she resigned for whatever reason, the combination of media triumphalism (the narrative would be, “so much for experience and judgement!”), liberal Schadenfreude and conservative despair would be so great that McCain wouldn’t stand a chance. Even though his result is now more likely to end up resembling Dole’s rather than, say, a respectable Ford-like defeat, he will have to trudge on and accept whatever happens. He might even earn some grudging respect late in the day; perhaps some generous Obama supporters will liken his campaign to the charge of the Light Brigade. He is, after all, so very concerned about Sevastopol, as he reminded us tonight. The entire Palin episode has been like some drunken bacchanalia that gave way to a terrified awakening several weeks too late. When her critics were painting her as a new Eagleton, her supporters were laughing at them as lunatics filled with hate, and now they are beginning to think that the haters may have been onto something. The GOP is experiencing self-immolation, and I can’t say that I am very bothered by that.

[deadparrot]

1. What else can I say? The man is right.

She'll win points from the media just by showing up at the debate. To the pundits who will be spinning this thing, she can't do much worse than her past interviews--she has nowhere to go but up. The Republican base would become completely demoralized and the imagery of McCain changing horses at this late date would sink the campaign with pretty much everyone else.

Of course, I'd love to be wrong about this, but I just don't see it happening.

[npincus]

2. the only possible "out:" if Palin excuses herself for family reasons...

which would have to be of a dramatic nature to make her exit credible... a tall order. If she left for family reasons, I think her base would accept it, but who knows if they would support a Palin-less McCain ticket.

[Zambero]

3. Her base would strongly suspect that she was forced out

Leaving the ticket for "personal" reasons has already been advocated by some nervous conservatives, even though their motivation for wanting her to do this is to cut the party's losses and bring on a "better" VP candidate. Palin's followers may be misguided in their adulation for her, but they are not entirely stupid, and they would resent that she was being forced out under false pretenses. If she drops out, the McCain campaign would suddenly deflate as the wave of conservative enthusiasm that Palin generated leaves with her. I don't think that a Huckabee or a Romney being substituted would even begin to recoup their losses.

[Realityhack]

12. Yep. They would loose her base. Especially if they brought in Romney. n/t

[deadparrot]

4. Oh, I absolutely think the base would remain staunchly loyal to her,

no matter what her reason for leaving. But I don't think it would be anything less than a disaster for the McCain camp. First, if it doesn't completely deter the base from voting, it demoralizes them: fewer volunteers, yard signs, bumper stickers, and more "undecideds" and "lean McCains" in polls that used to be solidly red. Barring a complete implosion by the Obama campaign, these are the people who McCain needs desperately to even have a small chance--will they show up to the polls come rain or snow or sleet in November without Palin? I kind of doubt it.

Second, there's the matter of finding a theoretical replacement. I may not like Romney or his ilk, but they're not as stupid as we often charge. If they have aspirations in 2012, I doubt they're going to tie themselves to a sinking campaign in 2008. My guess is that even if they wanted to dump her, they'd be hard-pressed to find someone who'd be willing to take her place--politics is all about moving up, so who'd want to muddy up his or her name by signing on for a sure-to-lose venture?

Finally, no matter what the reason given by the campaign, no matter how much people understand or identify with the "family reasons" shtick, it just looks bad. It's indicative of a campaign and candidate in chaos desperately trying to backtrack at the eleventh hour. If you're looking for some measure of stability at this point in American history, either consciously or subliminally, this isn't the candidate you'd be attracted to.

Of course, for the reasons above, I think throwing Palin under the bus would be a complete disaster--and that's why I want them to do it so desperately. :)

[Realityhack]

8. Her base MIGHT accept it... the media and independents would not.

They would still have the so much for McCain's ability to pick a VP meme and it would be a blood bath. Plus nobody would buy it so the rest of the race would be paralleled to a bunch of reporters trying to find out if the crisis were real. McCain would be fucked. I honestly don't think they can dump her no mater what at this point.

[PA Democrat]

5. McCain would lose the Christian conservative vote if he forced her out

and even if she quits "for personal reasons" they would suspect that she was asked to leave. I can't see how he could possibly gain from getting rid of her at this point. The damage is done. Many people who were previously undecided have come to see his choice of Palin as a grave error in judgment.

[Realityhack]

11. I agree. I don't see her leaving.

Sure I could be wrong. But I don't think people here realize how much of a gamble that would be. You can try to spin it all you want. The story would be out of control.

[Jennicut]

6. Well, this is what happens when you sell your soul to the "Christian" right

Nothin Christian about those pack of lunaticks. McTroll gets what he deserves. I am beginning to think he will lose as bad as Dole did as well.

[ORDem]

7. McCain's between a rock and a hard place, no doubt. If they can line up

a replacement, they will jettison Palin. Having her make a fool of McCain's campaign by having her debate Biden (assuming Biden doesn't try to actively crush her) is far worse than the damage they'd incur by replacing her with someone who will again grab the news cycle for a week. They'll spin it as showing how McMaverick is flexible in his thinking, not afraid to make hard choices, blah, blah, blah, instead of the truth: the guy is impulsive, reckless, and lacking in sound judgement.

:dem:

[Realityhack]

9. I think her downsides are being over hyped to create low expectations for the debate.

At this point it is all politics. If Palin manages not to run from the stage people will see her as better than expected. I think the McCain camp is setting things up for that.

Of course they are concerned but Palin still appeals to a bunch of the base and to sexist women who will vote for the female ticket no matter what. Plus she can still do the lookz Iz iz so cutz thing so that will play well on TV. Those were the reasons she was picked.

Obviously they are worried but I think some of this is also strategic setup.

[CampLo]

10. Can't believe only 1 recommend by me

this is gold

[RichGirl]

13. God love 'em...the republican base has been to hell and back....

Eight years of supporting, excusing, defending the indefensible Bush, now saddled with the man they disliked most. Then Palin...who they projected all their hopes and dreams on. Believing that she is the conservative queen that has come to make all things "right" in their world. She would put those damn libruls in their place. They believed she was as smart as they come and would wipe the floor with Biden....only to find out that she's ignorant and uninformed beyond belief. I have no sympathy for them. The did this to themselves through their ignorance. My point is that they are on very thin ice that can't bear another crack.