My prediction: McLame's next hail mary pass will be Sarah drops out for family reasons

[geekgrrl]

She's got to go. At this point she is nothing more than a joke and an embarrassment. You can see in her face she isn't even having fun any more. The republicans are not going to give up the WH easily. They'd rather ditch her and risk admitting McLame was wrong about her than loose the WH.

The ONLY WAY she can get out of this gracefully (without drawing attention to McLame being WRONG by picking her in the first place) is for "FAMILY REASONS"-- something with Trig or something with her pregnant daughter. That way she is both upholding her family duty, and still appealing to the people who love her for her commitment as a mother to her family. She'll say she has 2 responsibilities-- her family, and Alaska, and will have to go back for that reason.

They'll get flack for that, but no one will really be able to criticize her decision b/c it comes from her place as a MOTHER. People will applaud her for it.

And my second prediction is that McLame's next game changer will be to bring Romney in. For economic reasons it is the next logical thing for him to do.

And who scares me even more than McLame or Palin? Romney. **Shudder**

[grannie4peace]

1. i'd be so happy!!!!!!!!!!!

[geekgrrl]

2. happy with Romney? Ugh. I'd almost be happier if he kept Palin.

[tekisui]

4. If he changed his veep for any reason, it would be a loss. Period.

[geekgrrl]

6. BUT HE wouldn't be changing it-- it would be her bowing out b/c family comes first nt

[Spider Jerusalem]

13. Perception is everything.

And the perception would be that she was made to quit. The whole country saw her babbling like a brain-damaged monkey with Katie Couric.

[geekgrrl]

21. Perception is part of it-- and REPETITION is a big part too!

We've seen the repugs do it-- they repeat something so much they make it *seem* true. And if they repeat something that is difficult to argue with (i.e. Palin's family is more important to her than being VP) then that makes it *seem* even truer.

Yes, we'll know it is b/c she is an IDIOT. But others will buy into the repugs anyway.

[Blaq Dem]

62. McCain will use Palin and replace her with LIEberman after Nov.

That's if he steals the election. No one can take this dingbat serious. For now, he can use her to raise money too.

[tekisui]

35. DOES NOT MATTER. The ruse is up. It would be a loss.

[kedrys]

10. It wouldn't be Mittens anyway - McLame megaloathes him. n/t

[grannie4peace]

25. no, just happy palin wouldn't be 1 heartbeat away from presidency

i say, fuck romney-- he talks out of both sides of his mouth!!!!!

[earthlover]

46. if so, he is in good company with the Republican ticket!

[dkf]

3. Yup, McCain is no longer interested in being steady and consistent.

He's Mr. Drama and having Sarah Palin drop out would fit perfectly in his MO.

[CampLo]

5. can people stop predicting this?

it would be the death knell for the campaign. It will never happen. They would rather keep her and lose by 5 or 6 points than drop her and lose by 20 points.

[geekgrrl]

7. I disagree. My point is how they are going to SPIN it. That is different from stuff I've read here.

[CrispyQ]

43. I don't think they are going to drop her,

becasue it doesn't matter how the McCain camp spins it, it matters how the media spins it. My take is that the media is PISSED OFF that Palin has been sequestered away from them. The media has called out Palin more than they ever did with the chimp - who we all know made equally stupid comments. And why is that? Cuz they're pissed! McCain brought out this bright & shiny new object & then he refused to let them talk to her. I honestly think that if McCain had a least let the media speak with Palin, they would have been much more forgiving & cut her much more slack than they do now.

If she drops, the media will go after his campaign like a pack of rabid rats.

[onenote]

8. You are correct of course. But it won't stop anyone from predicting it

A lot of DUers are interested in politics, but have virtually no understanding of it. Is Palin costing the ticket votes? Yes. Would dropping her (no matter how its spun) cost them more votes than it would gain them? Absolutely.

[geekgrrl]

12. Do you mean I have no understanding of politics? Um. You're wrong there.

My dissertation is on politics and family issues-- particularly motherhood and politics. I've studied politics and political rhetoric extensively and I KNOW the power that family has in political rhetoric.

AGAIN:
They need to loose her. The only way to do this with MINIMAL damage is to have her drop out for her FAMILY. McLame and others will have to respect her decision b/c FAMILY has to come first.

[onenote]

19. Political reality: Palin is still supported by a sizable portion of the repub base

and they will freak if she leaves the ticket And no amount of spin will cover for her. And the media will have a field day. They already are fighting the impression that they are desparate. This would create a feeding frenzy.

She could cite her family issues, but the question would be "why now"? Why did she accept the nomination? Why did she bring her entire family to the convention, including the baby? What has changed? She didn't realize "how hard" it would be? What does that say about her? More importantly, what does it say about McCain?

Your premise is not that she wants to leave but that McCain wants to unload her. That's not political reality, that's political suicide. And the reality is that McCain and his people know it would be suicide, so they're stuck with her.

[geekgrrl]

30. They won't freak if she puts her family first. How could anyone disagree with that choice?

I agree with you that that is how it will seem to us and also others-- but to her base? They'll be falling all over her wonderful commitment to family. They won't see it as McCain unloading her at all. People see what they want to see and disregard the rest!

[onenote]

32. No one will believe it.

It would make Palin look like she didn't know what she was doing when she took the offer. She'd be killing her own future political ambitions. A sudden conversion? She'd have to step down as governor to make it stick. She's not going to do that.

Her base knew that she had a new born and all that when she was nominated and there wasn't a peep -- not one -- from the RW indicating that she should be putting her family first. They aren't going to like being played.

[Realityhack]

42. because it is a transparent lie. Plus...

Even if it is 'family reasons' it will reflect badly on McCain. He chose someone who could have left the VP a year in because of 'family reasons'. Nobody will buy it, it would hurt their base, it would kill them with swing voters. I don't see it happening.

[earthlover]

48. the right wing always has been hesitant to support McCain

Palin has excited them. I think many, no matter what anyone says, will smell a rat. And stay home from the election. Not all of them, but without Palin, some are not that excited about McCain.

Not to mention the logistical problems of changing the ballots, what to do with the absentee ballots, etc etc. Who would be the successor, how to decide in such a short time, etc.

I think it is a blast that the Reps, who were so quick to be excited about Palin, are now faced with a ton of bricks on their anchor.

[saltpoint]

16. The part I like is that he loses either way.

I'm wondering who would be asked to draw up a replacement shortlist in the unlikely event that they choose to toss Sarah off the choo-choo.

And once the list is drawn, how many names on the list would even consider it? McCain's boat is sinking in the lagoon. He'd have to go with someone who doesn't currently hold office, and has no ambition to hold any other office.

That trims the list down considerably.

[Realityhack]

41. I agree.

I find this extraordinarily unlikely.

[Spider Jerusalem]

9. McCain's fucked either way.

If Palin drops out, even if she claims it's for personal reasons, it;ll be OBVIOUS that it wasn't her decision, and it will highlight McCain's poor judgment in selecting her. She stays in, she'll have to talk to the press eventually, and Biden will totally own her in the debate, and she will probably become lost and confused and spout garbled nonsense about needing to create healthcare and reform jobs and having foreign policy experience because she can see Vladimir Putin's head from Alaska, and it will just highlight McCain's poor judgment in selecting her. McCain should've gone with his gut and offered the VP slot to Ridge or Lieberman; at least neither of them would've been an embarrassment.

[FloridaGrl]

20. It depends on why she dropped out

If it's a family "emergency" (something happens to one of her kids) the media will spin it in her favor. They will try to say that she is putting family before her own ambitions and that is admirable. Women who have given up their goals to tend to family issues will be sympathetic to her and McCain will get off.

[Spider Jerusalem]

22. Do you REALLY think they could possibly get away with that?

When there are CONSERVATIVES saying Palin needs to go, now? I don't really think so. The press would smell the blood in the water if Sarah got tossed over the side of the USS Maverick.

[FloridaGrl]

38. Yes I think they could

I am one such woman who had to toss my ambitions aside for awhile because of family. It's not an easy decision. I am an Obama supporter and will not be sold. However, what about those women who feel sympathetic to her? She will have them behind her for making such a tough choice. As I said before it depends on the nature of the emergency and I think these people are capable of doing anything. What if it's an emergency if she decided to stay would be seen as selfish and she has no "choice" but to bow out? The media will play it as a saving grace for the republican ticket because she had no choice but to be with her family.

[Realityhack]

45. But McCain would still be stuck having picked someone not suited...

Someone who had other priorities but agreed anyway. It would reflect badly on him even if it was "family reasons". And it is an entirely transparent lie. Nobody even in the main stream media wold buy it. It is the most common code phrase for ducking out for other reasons.
They would be absolutely screwed.

[FloridaGrl]

55. Perhaps so

hehehe. I hope she stays in but with conservatives calling for her to "do what's right" and bow out. I think something smells.

[geekgrrl]

23. Exactly. It has to be for a reason that CAN'T BE CRITICIZED-- a family emergency.

[Realityhack]

47. Like she poisons her own kid or something?

Nobody will buy that at face value. And it will make it look like McCain picked someone unreliable if they can't keep their family obligations while filling the VP office. People will talk about his choice and how this could have come a year in etc.
He will look like a jackass. Everyone will know it is a lie. It would be a disaster for them.

[Orangepeel]

24. They'll spin it in HER favor, but McCain will still look like a fool

I think he's stuck with her.

[CrispyQ]

49. The media is no longer sympathetic to Sarah Palin.

They are POd that the McCain camp has kept her under wraps. They may not criticize Palin, especially if done for family reasons, but they will disparage McCain. He will be toast.

[Frumious B]

11. Why would any Republican with hope for a future in national politics take the spot?

Why would they want a five week cruise on a ship that appears to be sinking when they would probably be better served to save their ammo for 2010 and 2012? That's why I think McCain is stuck with Palin. He rolled the dice and it simply hasn't turned out well.

[BlueManDude]

14. McCain's not dropping out Palin's not dropping and if I had to bet I'd say they'll win in Nov.

[geekgrrl]

18. Dude have you seen the battle ground polls lately?

[BlueManDude]

26. They are going to spend the next month playing the race card.

You have much more faith in your fellow citizens than I do.

[Frumious B]

53. About that "race card"

I'd hazard a guess that near 100% of voters who currently intend to vote for Barack Obama are aware of the fact that he is a black man with a name that is not Anglo derived. I would also guess that upwards of 90% of them are also aware that Obama had a pastor who said some controversial things. Despite this knowledge they still intend to vote for Obama and, if the polls are to be believed, more of them currently intend to vote for him than intend to vote for John McCain. You also have to consider that the right wing has really been playing the "race card" in subtle and less subtle ways this entire campaign. It's all ready out there and most of the damage it can do has been done.

My personal belief is that most people vote for selfish reasons, not idealistic ones. When things are OK then they can be distracted by nutty, small ball type stuff like flag pins, pigs with lipstick and so forth. However, when the chips are down they are going to go with the person they think will do the most for them. That person is Barack Obama in the minds of the majority of the electorate. If McCain is to win then this is the perception that he has to damage. The "race card" doesn't do that for McCain and it would destroy whatever statesman cred he has left. That doesn't mean he won't play it, but it does mean that IMHO it won't help him very much.

[LibraLiz1973]

15. She is going nowhere

Mark my words

[rubberducky]

17. No Way will she leave.

After checking out freeper boards, they are more behind her than MCcain. He would LOSE his base. She is his running mate, for better or for worse. If you only read DU, you do not understand that the rednecks LOVE her, they are praying that the mccain ticket will win and then the lord wil "smite" mccain, leaving McMoose in the cat-bird seat. It amazes me that anyone would want someone as intellectualy illiterate as McMoose as "the leader of the free world". Never, never underestimate her.

[PearliePoo2]

33. This is absolutely their plan

They know the Lord will "smite" McBomb and answer their prayers.
They are already planning on who the earthly "Smiter" will be that takes one for the team.

[Ioo]

27. WILL NOT HAPPEN - Would mean BO Can use question "Judgement" , it would be his death.

Sorry, he is a mav-rack he is going to stick it out to the end...

[RichGirl]

28. If McCain wants the mother of all Hail Marys.

It wouldn't be Palin dropping out for family reasons. If he wants to do something truly shocking, that will blow the socks off of everyone...he'll do something that NO republican has EVER done before: TELL THE TRUTH.

(Okay, take a moment to collect yourselves...breath deep....)

Palin comes on TV, primetime and speaks from her heart. I resign, I've realized I'm way over my head, it's not Sen. McCain's fault, I mislead him...I care too much about this country to continue....blah, blah, blah....

[geekgrrl]

31. ohhhh that would be interesting! You mean they'd throw her under the bus.

Not like they haven't done that to their own before!

[RichGirl]

44. No...nothing to do with them.....

I'm saying Palin, a republican, actually comes forward and tells the truth.

Truth: She is unqualified. (Okay, someone needs to share that truth with her because it hasn't get dawned...as far as we know.)

Truth: Yes, their vetting was not great, but I bet she wasn't totally forthcoming. When you do a job interview, you don't offer negative information about yourself. I'm sure when she had that ONE meeting with McCain, she didn't say, "you know senator, my daughter is knocked up and I did once have an affair that many people know about, I did use my executive privilege for personal vendettas, etc...."

[BumRushDaShow]

29. He accepted the $84 million dollars and she ain't going nowhere.

They already lost at the end of last month and this is just to keep interest in the down-ticket races.

[iamthebandfanman]

34. stfu n/t

[geekgrrl]

51. wow. way to respect political debate and conversation. nt

[iamthebandfanman]

58. wow. way to post a hypothetical that will never happen

and on top of that has been posted a million times by other dillusional people.


they are stuck with her whether they like it or not.


if you ask me, youre the one disrespecting political dialog by even suggesting the OP.

i mean honestly, you REALLY think theres a chance of it happening? i mean , REALLY?


sorry tho, i didnt mean to be so harsh. just sick of people posting 'sarahs stepping down' threads. its BS.

[Honeycombe8]

36. I ALREADY POSTED THIS AT 9:00 THIS MORNING. Romney - October Surprise?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7229285&mesg_id=7229285

[geekgrrl]

50. THIS IS DIFFERENT. I talking about the spin they'll use! nt

[Honeycombe8]

56. That's what I said. She'd drop out for "personal reasons." Like the conserv. editorial suggested..

that she do. Drop out for personal reasons, family reasons...everyone would accept that. Article says she should do that for the sake of the party.

No big deal. This seems to happen to me a lot. I post an article, and then someone comes behind me and posts a similar one, and everyone notices the OTHER one! I must not be exciting enough. :dunce:

[DividedWeAre]

37. i don't get it

Why do people think that McPalin will be dropped ? She does not help him in the general population but she is loved by the locals in the Republican party just as Bush was and still is. That is what he needed to galvanize the Republican core and he will at least get that done. The idea of her being pulled is a disaster and I don't think McCain will do it. He is a very stubborn man.

[BlooInBloo]

40. That's why National Review columnists are calling for her to be gone, right?

[frickaline]

39. My prediction: if McCain were to somehow win this election and then pass on, we'd end up with this:

because there's no way in hell she's taking office.

[1Hippiechick]

52. Never happen. She's got stars in her eyes, and they're from the flag in the Oval Office.

They couldn't run her off with a stick. She's IN and McCain and the Repukes are STUCK w/her. She has designs on the oval office. Yep, yep, sure.

[eugeneliberal]

54. They won't drop her

but what do you bet she'll have some family "emergency" on Wednesday that will prevent her from debating Biden Thursday night?

[1Hippiechick]

57. Never happen. McInsane tried the Mexican standoff, and it didn't work. Will hurt McInsane, imo. n/t

[genna]

59. After the B.S. McCain pulled last week, he might do anything to win.

Anything that was unthinkable before now is possible now.

[racaulk]

60. I hope this does not happen.

Palin is the gift that keeps on giving...to us!

[anigbrowl]

61. I think he sticksd with Palin, and we run against Romney in 2012

I don't agree with Mitt Romney, but they made a huge mistake in not nominating him or later adding him as the VP ticket. He is at least intelligent and relatively fiscally competent. I had hoped it would be Obama vs Romney because then it would have been a real contest of ideas, and likely a more polite one too. I have respect for Romney even though I wouldn't vote for him; I think he has a lot more integrity than McCain.

[Chloroplast]

63. The GOP can't weather another stunt.

Any suspension/replacement will have to be due to a serious illness or death. I know it sounds harsh but people are whispering and GOP-strongholds are turning blue; McCain and Palin are going to have to make their pairing work because losing this election could end their careers as they know it.